S&P 500 Index ($SPX) Index Forecast: Down 4.0% Today

What is S&P 500 Index?

The S&P 500 (SPX) index tracks the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies across different sectors. Today, it faced a significant bearish movement, reflecting a downturn in the overall market sentiment.

Why is S&P 500 Index going down?

SPX index is down 4.0% on Apr 4, 2025 10:41

• Mexican stocks saw a 4.5% surge after a decision regarding tariffs, resulting in a substantial 1-day rally compared to the SPX since 1998. This development may have shifted investor focus away from U.S. equities, impacting the SPX negatively.
• A seasoned investor's cautionary statement on potential stagflation risks linked to impending tariffs could have unsettled investors, prompting a reassessment of their U.S. stock positions, including those in the S&P 500.
• Recent selling actions by a prominent investor in various stocks, including S&P 500 ETFs, might have influenced market sentiment, given that investors often monitor such moves for direction. The selling pressure on these stocks could have contributed to the downward trend in the SPX.
• A financial institution's forecast of an increased probability of a U.S. recession and a cautionary note regarding additional market corrections likely impacted investor confidence, leading to the bearish movement in the S&P 500 index.

SPX Price Chart

SPX Technical Analysis

SPX News

Mexican Stocks Notch Widest 1-Day Rally Versus S&P 500 Since 1998 As Trump Spares Mexico From Tariffs

Mexican stocks surged 4.5% after Trump spared Mexico from new tariffs, outperforming the S&P 500 by 9 percentage points. This marks the widest 1-day rally versus the S&P 500 since 1998.

https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44637959/mexican-stocks-notch-widest-1-day-rally-versus-sp-500-since-1998-as-trump-spares-mexico-fr

Veteran Investor Warns Of Rising Stagflation Risk As Tariffs Loom, Anticipates 'Squeezed Profit Margins' For US Businesses

Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni cuts odds of 'Roaring 2020s' and raises stagflation risk due to new U.S. tariffs, which are expected to increase input costs for businesses and push inflation higher.

https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44584000/veteran-investor-warns-of-rising-stagflation-risk-as-tariffs-loom-anticipates-squeezed-pro

Warren Buffett Sold These 12 Stocks Over the Past 6 Months: Should You Sell Them Too?

Warren Buffett has sold or reduced positions in 12 stocks over the past 6 months, including S&P 500 ETFs, bank stocks, and other companies. The article discusses the potential reasons behind Buffett's decisions and provides guidance on whether investors should follow suit.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/03/31/warren-buffett-sold-these-12-stocks-over-the-last/?source=iedfolrf0000001

US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After 3-Day Fall: 'Equity Drawdown Probability Hasn't Peaked Yet,' Says Goldman Sachs Analyst

U.S. stock futures fell on Monday after three consecutive days of decline. Goldman Sachs has increased its U.S. recession probability from 20% to 35% and warned that the risk of further market correction is still looming.

https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44556580/us-stocks-likely-to-open-lower-after-three-day-fall-equity-drawdown-probability-hasnt-peaked-yet-says-goldman-sac

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S&P 500 Index Price History

20.02.2025 - SPX Index was up 0.2%

• Expectations around the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision fueled market optimism, driving the bullish trend for the S&P 500.
• Concerns regarding the economic impact of tariffs were raised by experts and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, contributing to market volatility.
• Investors have shifted sentiments, reducing equity exposure while increasing cash holdings, indicating a reassessment of market conditions and a cautious stance towards U.S. market performance.
• Despite Warren Buffett's recent decision to sell S&P 500 index fund positions, the general attitude towards index investing remains positive, underscoring the enduring advantages of long-term strategies despite market uncertainties.

04.02.2025 - SPX Index was down 2.8%

• Concerns arose over the US economy following President Trump's proposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, leading to a decline in the stock market.
• Uncertainty surrounding trade tensions and potential cost hikes for American consumers due to the tariffs amplified the market's bearish sentiment.
• Warren Buffett's recent sale of S&P 500 ETF holdings stirred unease in the market, triggering speculation about possible market repercussions, despite the holdings not being major for Berkshire Hathaway.
• The Federal Reserve's report on a slowdown in its key inflation gauge likely exacerbated worries about economic growth and stability, contributing to the prevailing negative market sentiment.

03.08.2024 - SPX Index was down 0.4%

• A well-known market bear, John Hussman, warns of a potential recession based on economic indicators, contributing to bearish sentiment and a downward movement in the S&P 500.
• Despite the bearish outlook, the S&P 500 managed to recover in August, closing the month with a 2% gain, showing resilience in the face of economic uncertainties.
• The Federal Reserve's inflation data showing easing price pressure and positive news of divestment from Intel contributed to a 1% jump in the S&P 500, countering some of the bearish sentiment.
• Overall, the market movement of the S&P 500 today reflects a mix of concerns about a possible recession, economic indicators, and positive news from specific companies like Intel, leading to a bearish trend despite recent monthly gains.

04.03.2025 - SPX Index was down 4.0%

• Mexican stocks saw a 4.5% surge after a decision regarding tariffs, resulting in a substantial 1-day rally compared to the SPX since 1998. This development may have shifted investor focus away from U.S. equities, impacting the SPX negatively.
• A seasoned investor's cautionary statement on potential stagflation risks linked to impending tariffs could have unsettled investors, prompting a reassessment of their U.S. stock positions, including those in the S&P 500.
• Recent selling actions by a prominent investor in various stocks, including S&P 500 ETFs, might have influenced market sentiment, given that investors often monitor such moves for direction. The selling pressure on these stocks could have contributed to the downward trend in the SPX.
• A financial institution's forecast of an increased probability of a U.S. recession and a cautionary note regarding additional market corrections likely impacted investor confidence, leading to the bearish movement in the S&P 500 index.

01.03.2025 - SPX Index was up 1.6%

• The mention of increasing stagflation risk from new U.S. tariffs may have caused some initial market uncertainty, but investors eventually disregarded these worries, leading to the bullish movement.
• The selling of specific stocks by Warren Buffett, including S&P 500 ETFs, could have initially created selling pressure, but it appears that most investors did not follow suit, contributing to the prevailing bullish sentiment.
• Despite the recent decline in U.S. stock futures over three days and a heightened likelihood of recession, investors might have taken comfort in the recommendation to cut losses on poorly performing stocks and consider investing in S&P 500 ETFs during volatile periods.
• Concerns among CFOs regarding tariffs and declining business confidence might have initially added to market nervousness, but the market's resilience indicates that investors are emphasizing the positive economic aspects.

06.02.2025 - SPX Index was down 0.6%

• The bearish movement in the SPX today can be attributed to the European Central Bank's decision to cut interest rates, signaling concerns about slower growth in Europe and increased tariffs.
• Additionally, President Trump's announcement of more tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China likely added to the negative sentiment in the market, raising fears about the impact on the US economy.
• The slight decrease in consumer spending and the rise in prices, as indicated in the Fed's Beige Book, might have also contributed to the bearish trend, reflecting potential challenges in the overall economic environment.
• Overall, the combination of global economic uncertainties, trade tensions, and consumer behavior trends likely influenced the bearish movement in the SPX today.

11.02.2025 - SPX Index was up 0.8%

• The SPX showed a bullish trend today as investors sought value in quality stocks and ETFs like SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) amidst market uncertainty related to President Trump's economic plan.
• Despite concerns about a potential stock market decline due to Trump's policies, the historical performance of the S&P 500 indicates that investing in such index funds can result in significant wealth growth.
• The European Central Bank's decision to lower interest rates in response to tariff increases and slower growth in Europe might have encouraged investors to explore opportunities in U.S. markets like the S&P 500, contributing to today's positive market movement.
• While alternative ETF options to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust are being discussed, the prevailing sentiment leans towards the stability and long-term growth potential of the S&P 500 index.

26.01.2025 - SPX Index was up 0.1%

• The drop in Bitcoin's value may be linked to increasing trade tensions and a decrease in consumer confidence, prompting investors to turn to more secure assets.
• Warren Buffett's decision to sell off holdings in overvalued assets like Ulta Beauty and S&P 500 ETFs indicates a careful approach that could sway market sentiments towards an impending correction.
• The ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which present alternative mineral resources, have the potential to impact market stability and investor trust, prompting a change in asset preferences.

03.02.2025 - SPX Index was down 1.3%

• A hypothetical investment of $100,000 with favorable annual returns and a long time horizon could potentially grow to over $1 million by retirement, potentially boosting market sentiment.
• Recent actions by investor Warren Buffett, selling S&P 500 ETFs, stirred concerns about a market crash, influencing investors' reactions and contributing to the bearish movement.
• The Federal Reserve's announcement of a slowdown in its key inflation measure after four months likely fueled market uncertainty and bearish sentiment.
• Confirmation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada by Trump, in addition to economic data suggesting stagflation, possibly escalated concerns about slower growth and higher inflation, impacting the bearish trend in the market.

27.01.2025 - SPX Index was down 0.9%

• The bearish movement in the SPX index today can be attributed to escalating trade tensions and fears of potential stagflation, fueled by recent confirmation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting March 4.
• Investors are concerned about slower economic growth and higher inflation due to these tariffs, leading to a negative sentiment in the market and a sell-off in various sectors.
• Additionally, recent moves by an influential investor, including selling positions in specific companies and ETFs, may have added to the bearish sentiment, signaling a belief that the market is overpriced and due for a correction.
• Overall, the combination of trade uncertainties, inflation fears, and influential investors' actions has contributed to the bearish movement in the SPX index today.

28.01.2025 - SPX Index was down 1.9%

• The bearish movement in the SPX index today can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's key inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, showing a slowdown in growth after four consecutive months. This may have raised concerns about the pace of economic recovery and potential future Fed actions.
• Additionally, President Trump's announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China starting March 4 might have contributed to the market decline, as investors fear the impact on various sectors and the potential for slower growth and higher inflation.
• The combination of these factors, along with signs of potential stagflation such as soaring jobless claims and a drop in pending home sales, likely led to a negative sentiment in the market, reflected in the bearish movement of the SPX index.

28.02.2025 - SPX Index was down 1.4%

• Advice from Warren Buffett to cut losses on underperforming stocks possibly influenced investors to reassess their portfolios, resulting in a sell-off of individual stocks and the broader market.
• Rising worries among CFOs about tariffs and fluctuating business confidence might have played a part in the negative market sentiment, given that trade policy uncertainly often causes market volatility.
• Mixed signals from President Trump on tariffs and the potential for higher-than-expected tariff rates, as cautioned by Goldman Sachs, could have exacerbated market unease, leading investors to retreat from riskier assets like equities.
• PIMCO's forecast of a modest recession risk in the US economy could have also impacted investor sentiment, prompting a shift towards more defensive positions and influencing overall market performance.