Heating Oil ($HEATOIL) Commodity Forecast: Down 6.2% Today

What is Heating Oil?

Heating Oil is a crucial commodity used for heating purposes, especially during the winter season. The market for Heating Oil is influenced by various factors such as distillate inventories, crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal demand.

Why is Heating Oil going down?

HEATOIL commodity is down 6.2% on Nov 21, 2025 14:38

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to:
• A surprise build in distillate inventories, breaking a streak of heavy draws and easing immediate physical tightness.
• Falling crude prices due to diplomatic signals indicating a potential peace talks scenario between two countries, which could lead to higher oil exports and alleviate oversupply concerns.
• Rising US crude stocks and forecasts of a possible global surplus next year, softening forward pricing and weighing on crude feedstock costs support.
• The market balancing softer crude fundamentals against genuine product tightness, with colder weather forecasts driving buying but also concerns about global inventories and supply glut in the longer term.

HEATOIL Price Chart

HEATOIL Technical Analysis

HEATOIL News

Heating Oil Extends Downturn

US heating oil futures plunged toward 2.45 dollars per gallon, retreating from April 2024 highs as a historically tight distillate complex found some respite at the same time that crude feedstock costs eased amid renewed diplomatic signals. Distillate inventories ended a six-week run of heavy draws with a surprise 171 thousand barrel build in the week to November 14th, tempering fears over the magnitude of the product shortage. At the same time, crude prices fell after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signalled willingness to pursue peace talks and reports surfaced that a US- and Russia-drafted blueprint, to be discussed when Zelenskiy speaks with President Donald Trump in coming days, could include territorial concessions and the lifting of some sanctions, a scenario that would open the door to higher Russian oil exports and lift oversupply concerns.

Heating Oil Eases after Distillate Build

US heating oil futures slipped below $2.60 per gallon, pulling back from April 2024 highs as a historically tight distillate complex found relief while crude feedstock costs also eased amid renewed geopolitical diplomacy. Distillate inventories broke a six week streak of heavy draws with a 171 thousand barrel build in the week ending November 14, a surprise increase that eased immediate physical tightness and tempered near term upside for heating oil. At the same time crude prices fell after a Ukrainian official said Kyiv had received signals of US proposals aimed at ending the Russia Ukraine war which lifted hopes for fresh diplomacy and softened the geopolitical risk premium. Russia also noted that sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil had not curbed output which further weighed on crude fundamentals.

Heating Oil Tracks Crude's Plunge

US heating oil futures fell below $2.60 per gallon, retreating from April 2024 highs after a fresh inventory build eroded crude feedstock costs support while distillate supplies remained tight. The API said US crude stocks rose 4.4 million barrels last week, the third straight weekly increase, and Vortexa data show crude on tankers climbing toward 1.4 billion barrels, signalling a swollen pool of floating or in transit supply that can relieve regional tightness. The IEA is forecasting a possible global surplus next year which also softens forward pricing. At the same time US distillate inventories sit well below seasonal norms and imminent sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil continue to complicate trade flows, keeping some buyers cautious. Colder model runs for late November and early December have revived heating demand and triggered buying, so the market now balances softer crude fundamentals against genuine product tightness with weather likely to decide the next leg of the move.

Heating Oil Hits 19-month High

Heating Oil increased to 2.71 USD/Gal, the highest since April 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Heating Oil gained 23.45%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 21.31%.

Heating Oil Hovers at Yearly Highs

US heating oil futures rose above $2.60 per gallon, hovering at yearly highs driven by supply concerns and stronger demand ahead of winter. The market continues to grapple with a tighter supply of distillate fuel in the US, with inventories well below seasonal norms, and potential crude supply disruptions linked to recent Western sanctions on Russian oil producers like Rosneft and Lukoil. However, crude oil benchmarks are being pressured by forecasts of rising global inventories and an overall supply glut expected to extend through 2026 as non-OPEC production grows faster than demand. The market is now weighing these supply fears and the onset of colder weather in the Eastern US against the longer-term bearish outlook for crude oil.

Trending Today

Cardano ($ADA) Crypto Forecast: Down 6.1% Today

XRP ($XRP) Crypto Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

Ethereum ($ETH) Crypto Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. Class A ($AMC) Stock Forecast: Up 5.5% Today

Plug Power Inc. ($PLUG) Stock Forecast: Up 5.3% Today

CarMax Inc ($KMX) Stock Forecast: Up 5.4% Today

Zoetis Inc. Class A ($ZTS) Stock Forecast: Up 5.2% Today

Tetra Tech Inc. ($TTEK) Stock Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

Snowflake Inc ($SNOW) Stock Forecast: Down 5.2% Today

IDEXX Laboratories Inc. ($IDXX) Stock Forecast: Up 5.0% Today

Heating Oil Price History

19.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.7%

• Heating Oil prices surged to a 19-month high of $2.71 per gallon, driven by supply worries and robust demand as winter approaches.
• Geopolitical tensions and supply risks in the crude oil market, including Russian sanctions and disruptions, contributed to the bullish sentiment.
• Despite a slight drop in prices following a smaller-than-expected draw in distillate inventories, the overall market remains bullish due to ongoing supply constraints and the tightening distillate complex.
• The market is closely monitoring global oil demand forecasts, supply dynamics, and geopolitical developments to gauge the future trajectory of Heating Oil prices.

24.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 9.6%

• The ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran reduced fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, leading to a drop in crude oil prices and subsequently pressuring heating oil futures.
• Refining margins narrowed due to ample inventories and softening summer demand, while cooler-than-expected temperatures in key northeastern US markets further limited near-term consumption of heating oil.
• Despite threats of potential disruptions in the Persian Gulf, the continued transit of oil tankers and rising Iranian oil exports contributed to the downward pressure on heating oil prices.
• Forecasts of a major US heat wave and high demand for refined fuel products like diesel and marine fuel could tighten the market, but the current geopolitical situation and supply dynamics are keeping speculative interest high and preventing a significant decline in heating oil prices.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 13.4%

• Today, heating oil experienced a strong bearish movement, dropping from a recent high of $2.60 per gallon.
• The bearish trend in heating oil prices can be attributed to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the US and Iran, which has reduced fears of supply disruptions in the region.
• Additionally, ample inventories, softening summer demand, and forecasts of cooler temperatures in key northeastern US markets have also contributed to the downward pressure on heating oil prices.
• The overall market sentiment seems to have shifted towards a more relaxed stance, with traders focusing on factors such as supply levels, demand outlook, and geopolitical developments to gauge future price movements in the heating oil market.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 9.8%

• Despite tensions escalating in the Middle East, especially involving the US, Israel, and Iran, immediate supply disruptions have not occurred, easing worries of a significant oil shortage and leading to a decrease in heating oil prices.
• The reduction in US crude inventories, alongside a strong demand for diesel, marine fuel, and summer-grade products, has helped heating oil prices. However, this has not fully balanced the overall market sentiment.
• President Trump's announcement of postponing US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict has eased concerns temporarily, contributing to the decline in heating oil futures.
• The increase in heating oil prices to a 14-month peak was mainly caused by a squeeze in distillate supplies, growing costs of crude-oil feedstock, and increasing geopolitical risks, indicating the volatile nature of the commodity market.

20.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.1%

• Heating Oil experienced a bearish movement today due to a combination of factors:
• An unexpected distillate build of 171 thousand barrels tempered immediate physical tightness, easing the upside potential for Heating Oil prices.
• Crude feedstock costs softened as crude prices fell amid signals of potential diplomatic resolutions to a conflict, reducing the geopolitical risk premium.
• Forecasts of a possible global surplus next year by an organization and rising global inventories weighed on crude fundamentals, indirectly impacting Heating Oil prices.
• Colder weather forecasts for late November and early December revived heating demand, but the market is now balancing softer crude fundamentals against genuine product tightness, with weather likely to dictate the next market move.

18.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

• The bullish movement in heating oil prices can be attributed to supply risks in the crude feedstock complex, which lifted oil benchmarks and offset concerns about a global surplus.
• Recent events such as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian ports, staff cuts at Lukoil, and reduced purchases of Russian crude by India and China have tightened near-term seaborne flows, contributing to the bullish sentiment.
• However, the market remains cautious as forecasts of rising global inventories and a potential supply glut in the oil market could pose challenges in the future, balancing the current bullish outlook for heating oil.

23.09.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.2%

• Heating Oil futures experienced a strong bullish movement today, reaching a three-week high of $2.32 per gallon. This surge can be attributed to several factors:
• New sanctions on Russia's top oil producers tightened global supply expectations, boosting prices.
• Weather forecasts shifting towards seasonally normal conditions signaled rising heating demand.
• The report of distillate fuel oil stocks staying below average, along with significant stock draws earlier this year, added to the bullish sentiment.
• The rebound in Heating Oil prices also reflects a tight distillate complex meeting a firmer crude backdrop and an improved seasonal demand outlook.
• Despite the recent bearish trend with Heating Oil hitting a four-month low and an 18-week low, today's bullish movement indicates a shift in market sentiment driven by a combination of geopolitical events, weather forecasts, and supply-demand dynamics.

23.09.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Heating Oil prices was primarily driven by a sharp draw in distillate inventories and the onset of winter demand, despite weak crude feedstock costs.
• The tightening supply of heating fuels, along with expectations of higher heating demand due to cooler weather conditions, contributed to the rebound in Heating Oil prices.
• The market movement was also supported by a significant decrease in distillate stocks, indicating a tighter distillate complex.
• Despite concerns about weak demand and global supply pressures on crude oil, Heating Oil outperformed other oil benchmarks due to the favorable inventory data and seasonal demand outlook.

18.06.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.3%

• The bullish movement in heating oil prices today can be attributed to a combination of factors:
• Softening consumption signals and concerns over trade wars have tipped the supply/demand balance towards ample stocks, leading to a drop in prices.
• President Trump's threat of imposing tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, along with existing duties on Canadian energy products, has injected uncertainty into global economic growth forecasts, potentially slowing fuel consumption.
• Refiners in China favoring gasoline and diesel output over middle distillates have left heating oil more exposed, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
• On the other hand, the bullish movement can also be linked to rising crude feedstock costs lifting refining margins and supporting distillate values, leading to higher heating oil prices.

18.06.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.4%

• The surge in heating oil prices to near one-month highs can be attributed to a combination of factors such as warfare in the Middle East, tight supplies, solid demand, and output disruptions in Iraqi Kurdistan and EU sanctions on Russian oil, creating a bullish sentiment in the market.
• Conversely, the drop in heating oil prices to a monthly low was influenced by softer consumption signals, renewed trade-war concerns, a surprise build in distillate inventories in the US, and President Trump's tariff threats on EU and Mexican goods, leading to a bearish market movement.
• The upward momentum in heating oil prices, hovering at two-week highs, was driven by rising crude feedstock costs, refining margins, and distillate values, as well as ongoing refinery maintenance and disruptions in bunker fuel flows to Europe, supporting the bullish trend in the market.

21.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 6.2%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to:
• A surprise build in distillate inventories, breaking a streak of heavy draws and easing immediate physical tightness.
• Falling crude prices due to diplomatic signals indicating a potential peace talks scenario between two countries, which could lead to higher oil exports and alleviate oversupply concerns.
• Rising US crude stocks and forecasts of a possible global surplus next year, softening forward pricing and weighing on crude feedstock costs support.
• The market balancing softer crude fundamentals against genuine product tightness, with colder weather forecasts driving buying but also concerns about global inventories and supply glut in the longer term.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 6.0%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to recent geopolitical developments easing concerns of an immediate supply shock in the Middle East.
• Despite the pullback, underlying fundamentals remain supportive due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and fears of disruptions in crude oil flows.
• The slight easing in prices also reflects seasonally soft summer heating demand and ample global supply, acting as limiting factors on further price increases.
• Overall, the market sentiment for Heating Oil remains cautious, with ongoing geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics playing a significant role in price movements.