Gasoline ($GASOLINE) Commodity Forecast: Down 7.9% Today

What is Gasoline?

Gasoline futures experienced a strong bearish movement today, following a recent surge to a near four-year high due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply concerns.

Why is Gasoline going down?

GASOLINE commodity is down 7.9% on May 6, 2026 12:00

• Gasoline futures plummeted as the potential end to the US-Iran conflict improved supply outlook from the Middle East, easing concerns about disruptions in the region.
• Reports of increased gasoline demand alongside a decline in inventories and lower production provided some support, but the overall sentiment was dominated by geopolitical developments.
• President Trump's comments on temporarily pausing efforts to guide vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz and hopes for de-escalation in the conflict contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline futures.
• The ongoing standoff between the US and Iran, coupled with concerns about naval blockades and supply constraints, continued to weigh on market sentiment, leading to the bearish movement in gasoline futures.

GASOLINE Price Chart

GASOLINE Technical Analysis

GASOLINE News

Gasoline Sinks from 4-Year High

Gasoline future for delivery at the New York Harbor plummeted to $3.35 per gallon on Wednesday after reaching a four-year high of $3.75 two sessions prior, as the potential end to the war between the US and Iran improved the supply outlook from the Middle East. Reports indicated that the US was close to agreeing on a memorandum to end the conflict with Iran. An end to the war would likely start the process of restoring tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz, enabling GCC from exporting their full storages of fuel. Shipping activity through Hormuz has been halted since the start of March, disrupting 20 million bpd of oil and refined products for major importers. On top of that, jet fuel and diesel shortages in Europe and Asia drove major energy producers to prioritize their refining capacity for distillates instead of motor gasoline, exacerbating supply risks. Consequently, US gasoline stocks sank for the 11th straight week, depleting inventory ahead of the high-demand summer season.

Gasoline Futures Extend Drop

US gasoline futures fell below $3.60 per gallon, extending their retreat from a near four-year high on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. President Donald Trump said efforts to guide stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz would be temporarily paused to allow space to finalize a settlement with Iran aimed at ending the war, though he maintained his blockade of Iranian ports. His remarks came after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the ceasefire in the Middle East remains intact and that the initial major US military operation against Iran has concluded, further calming markets. Meanwhile, Iran denied carrying out attacks against the UAE and warned of a “decisive response” if Abu Dhabi launches strikes on its territory. On the fundamentals side, the EIA reported increased gasoline demand for the week ending April 24, alongside a decline inventories and slightly lower production.

Gasoline Futures Fall from 4-Year High

US gasoline futures eased to $3.63 per gallon from a near four-year high of $3.74 reached on May 4, after Washington downplayed the risk of a renewed full-scale conflict with Iran following recent clashes in the Strait of Hormuz and missile strikes on the United Arab Emirates. US officials said the incidents did not violate the ceasefire that has been in place for nearly a month, helping calm market concerns despite ongoing tensions. The standoff between the US and Iran continues, with little progress toward new talks as Tehran demands an end to the naval blockade while Washington maintains pressure on Iran’s oil exports. Meanwhile, data from the Energy Information Administration showed gasoline demand edged higher to 9.10 million barrels per day, while inventories fell and production declined slightly.

Gasoline Hovers Near 4-Year High

Gasoline futures for delivery in New York Harbor hovered near $3.60 per gallon on Monday, close to a four-year high, as markets continued to assess developments in the Middle East. President Trump said the US could help escort neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to allow ships stranded by the conflict with Iran to transit safely. However, a UK maritime agency reported that a tanker was struck by projectiles near Fujairah, underscoring the danger for regional shipping. Gasoline prices have risen about 13% in April as prolonged US–Iran tensions have sharply tightened feedstock supply for refiners. Since the blockade of Hormuz in early March, around 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined products bound for major importers have been disrupted. Shortages of jet fuel and diesel in Europe and Asia have also pushed refiners to prioritize distillates over gasoline, further constraining supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day in June.

Gasoline Prices Ease Slightly

Gasoline futures for delivery in New York Harbor were slightly down at $3.57 per gallon on Friday as hopes for an end to the U.S.-Iran conflict increased after Pakistani officials confirmed that Iran had sent an updated peace proposal. However, prices remained near a four-year high as Middle East supply disruptions continued to tighten feedstock supply for refiners. The naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has remained in place since early March, disrupting around 20 million bpd of oil and refined products for major importers. Jet fuel and diesel shortages in Europe and Asia have also pushed refiners to prioritize distillate production over motor gasoline, exacerbating supply risks, while U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week ending April 24, above expectations of a 2.1 million-barrel draw and marking the 11th straight decline, with prices rising nearly 13% in April.

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Gasoline Price History

08.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 11.5%

• Gasoline futures dropped over 10% to below $3 per gallon, hitting a four-week low. The decline can be attributed to Iran's agreement to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• President Trump's ultimatum for Iran to reopen the waterway or face targeted strikes on infrastructure added uncertainty to the market, impacting gasoline prices negatively.
• The announcement of a ceasefire and upcoming negotiations between the US and Iran likely provided some relief to investors, leading to the bearish movement in gasoline futures as tensions eased in the region.
• The decision by OPEC+ to increase output in May may have also contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline prices, as concerns about supply constraints due to the closed Strait of Hormuz were partially alleviated.

09.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• Gasoline futures surged as the market reacted to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, which led to Iran halting the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation in tensions and potential disruptions in oil supply contributed to the bullish movement in Gasoline prices.
• The previous day, Gasoline futures dropped significantly following Iran's agreement to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire with the US and Israel. This decision alleviated concerns about oil supply disruptions, leading to a sharp decline in Gasoline prices.
• The fluctuating Gasoline prices reflect the market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly regarding the vital waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are closely monitoring ceasefire negotiations and potential disruptions in energy supplies, which are driving the volatility in Gasoline futures.
• Despite the temporary relief provided by the ceasefire agreements, uncertainties persist regarding the long-term stability of oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Any further escalations or disruptions in the region could continue to impact Gasoline prices in the coming days.

22.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.0%

• Gasoline prices surged over 4% today, exceeding $3.10 per barrel.
• The increase in prices was attributed to heightened tensions in the Middle East, including actions involving US military and the persisting closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Market sentiment was also impacted by uncertainties surrounding US-Iran negotiations and potential disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf region.
• Despite some price fluctuations, the overall bullish trend in gasoline prices reflects ongoing geopolitical risks and supply uncertainties, leading to cautious investor sentiment.

22.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.6%

• Gasoline prices have risen to nearly $3.3 per gallon, the highest in almost four years, as the conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing supply shortages and disruptions in the oil market.
• The ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, along with geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, has raised concerns about oil and refined product supplies, leading to a significant increase in gasoline prices.
• The continuous drawdown in gasoline stocks in the US, combined with uncertainties surrounding US-Iran negotiations and the potential for a prolonged conflict, have contributed to the bullish momentum in Gasoline futures.
• Despite occasional price slips due to market assessments of potential talks between the US and Iran, the overall trend remains bullish amidst the risk of a deeper global energy crisis, keeping gasoline prices elevated.

22.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 7.3%

• Prices of Gasoline increased by 5% to almost a four-year peak, attributed to rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly related to the conflict between Iran and the US. This has resulted in supply shortages and disruptions in the oil market.
• The ongoing blockage in the critical Strait of Hormuz, a key point for oil shipment, has worsened the supply strain, leading to a further spike in Gasoline prices.
• Despite some fluctuations in Gasoline futures, the overall trend is bullish as the energy markets continue to be affected by geopolitical uncertainties, potentially leading to additional price hikes in the near term.

17.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gasoline futures fell amid growing possibilities of peace talks between the US and Iran, despite a larger-than-expected decline in inventories, leading to a downward shift in the market.
• Speculations about peace negotiations between the US and Iran, combined with the US implementing a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, were key contributors to the drop in Gasoline prices.
• Uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran conflict, potential supply disruptions, and their effects on global oil demand all played a role in pushing Gasoline prices lower, resulting in the observed downward trend in the market.

17.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gasoline prices plunged to a 5-week low due to hopes of increased supply from the Persian Gulf region following an announcement regarding vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz. This news eased concerns over potential supply disruptions, leading to a drop in gasoline futures.
• Despite a larger-than-expected draw in inventories and an increase in gasoline demand, the prospects of further peace negotiations between two countries outweighed these positive factors, contributing to the decline in gasoline futures.
• The anticipation of renewed talks between the two nations, along with the potential for a deal benefiting both sides, led to a slip in gasoline prices. The uncertainty surrounding the ongoing geopolitical situation, including naval activities and output disruptions, added to the market's volatility.
• The market sentiment for gasoline was influenced by shifting geopolitical dynamics, peace negotiation prospects, and supply concerns in key regions, highlighting the interconnectedness of global events on commodity prices.

07.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 9.2%

• Gasoline futures edged lower due to President Trump's ultimatum to Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which overshadowed ceasefire efforts, causing uncertainty and downward pressure on prices.
• Market sentiments were impacted negatively by Trump's warnings of potential strikes on Iran's infrastructure, resulting in a risk-off sentiment that affected Gasoline prices.
• Despite OPEC+ agreeing to increase output, concerns about supply disruptions from the closed Strait and damaged infrastructure limited optimism for increased supply reaching global markets, contributing to the bearish movement in Gasoline prices.

29.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.1%

• Gasoline futures climbed to nearly 4-year highs surpassing $3.60 per gallon as ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East tightened feedstock supply for refiners.
• Concerns over potential longer-term blockades of Iran following President Trump's directives and fragile ceasefires in the region contributed to worries about further supply disruptions, thus pushing Gasoline prices up.
• Instances of commercial vessels being seized near the Strait of Hormuz and the halt in tanker movements in the area worsened supply shortages, driving Gasoline prices even higher.
• The continuous monthly increase in Gasoline prices, alongside notable inventory declines and disturbances in crucial oil transit routes, all played a part in the bullish market movement witnessed today.

29.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.7%

• Gasoline futures surged to nearly 4-year highs above $3.70 per gallon as Middle East supply disruptions continued to tighten feedstock supply for refiners, leading to concerns over supply shortages.
• The US-Iran conflict and the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted shipping activity, halting the transit of oil and product tankers, exacerbating supply risks and driving up prices.
• Reports of falling gasoline inventories in the US by significant amounts, such as 6.1 million barrels and 8.47 million barrels in a week, have added to the bullish sentiment, indicating a persistent decline in stocks amidst the supply disruptions.
• The escalating tensions and failed peace negotiations in the Middle East have further fueled concerns over crude availability for refiners, pushing Gasoline prices higher as traders monitor the situation closely for any signs of resolution.

06.04.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.3%

• Gasoline futures fell as tensions between the US and Iran eased, following statements from top officials indicating a potential de-escalation in the conflict.
• The market reacted to increased gasoline demand, declining inventories, and slightly lower production, indicating a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics.
• The ongoing naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions in oil and refined product shipments, and refiners' prioritization of distillates over gasoline have all contributed to the volatility in gasoline prices.
• Despite the slight pullback in prices, the overall bullish sentiment in the market remains strong, supported by supply constraints and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East.

06.04.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.9%

• Gasoline futures plummeted as the potential end to the US-Iran conflict improved supply outlook from the Middle East, easing concerns about disruptions in the region.
• Reports of increased gasoline demand alongside a decline in inventories and lower production provided some support, but the overall sentiment was dominated by geopolitical developments.
• President Trump's comments on temporarily pausing efforts to guide vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz and hopes for de-escalation in the conflict contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline futures.
• The ongoing standoff between the US and Iran, coupled with concerns about naval blockades and supply constraints, continued to weigh on market sentiment, leading to the bearish movement in gasoline futures.