Gasoline ($GASOLINE) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.3% Today

What is Gasoline?

Gasoline is a key commodity in the energy market, with its price closely tied to oil prices and geopolitical tensions that can impact oil supply chains.

Why is Gasoline going down?

GASOLINE commodity is down 5.3% on Oct 8, 2024 16:36

• Gasoline futures dropped to $2 per gallon today, a significant shift from a 6-week high, despite the recent bullish trend.
• The unexpected increase in gasoline inventories by 1.119 million barrels led to this decline, contrary to market expectations of a decrease.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, have raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply chains, causing oil prices to surge and exerting pressure on gasoline futures.
• President Biden's lack of direct opposition to a potential Israeli attack on Iran's oil facilities has added a risk premium to oil futures, contributing to the downward movement in gasoline prices.

GASOLINE Price Chart

GASOLINE Technical Analysis

GASOLINE News

Gasoline Futures Rise Toward 6-Week High

US gasoline futures rose above $2.117 per gallon, the highest in nearly six weeks, driven by rising oil prices and fears of disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. Concerns are growing over the possibility of Israel striking Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for a missile attack, though President Joe Biden has discouraged such action. Domestically, Hurricane Helene crushed gasoline demand by damaging infrastructure and causing power outages, but supply remained stable. Gas demand dropped significantly to 8.52 million b/d in the week ending September 27th, while domestic gasoline stocks increased slightly, and production averaged 9.6 million barrels per day.

Gasoline Futures Rise to 1-Month High

US gasoline futures rose above $2.06 per gallon, a one-month high, as oil prices spiked following President Biden's lack of direct opposition to a potential Israeli attack on Iran’s oil facilities. This heightened geopolitical tension added a risk premium to oil futures. Israel had vowed to retaliate against Iran’s missile attack, escalating its conflict with Hezbollah. Additionally, signs of a strong US economy, including positive labor market data and a surge in the ISM Services PMI, boosted fuel demand outlook. Meanwhile, the EIA reported a gasoline stock increase of 1.119 million barrels, defying expectations of a small drop.

Gasoline Hits 4-week High

Gasoline increased to a 4-week high of 2.06 USD/Gal. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline gained 4.64%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 5.8%.

Gasoline Futures Rebound to $2

US gasoline futures climbed to $2 per gallon as oil prices surged due to fears that the conflict in the Middle East could escalate and disrupt oil supplies. This followed Iran's launch of around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, heightening concerns about oil supply from the region. Iran, a key oil producer and member of OPEC, plays a significant role in the global oil market. The missile attack prompted a vow of retaliation from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, increasing risks to oil flows. As a result, WTI crude rose to around $71 per barrel, and Brent crude approached $75. Meanwhile, US gasoline inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels in the week ending September 27, 2024, following a large decrease of 3.4 million barrels the previous week, according to the API.

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Gasoline Price History

30.07.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.0%

• Gasoline futures experienced a bearish movement due to weaker global demand and economic uncertainties, including slowdowns in key markets like China and reduced diesel demand in Europe.
• The rebound in gasoline prices was driven by rising oil prices as a dovish US Fed pressured the dollar, boosting dollar-priced energy commodities.
• Signs of weakening demand from major economies and potential delays in OPEC+ output cuts contributed to speculation that supported energy prices.
• The fluctuation in gasoline prices highlights the volatility in the energy market, where supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and economic indicators play a significant role in price movements.

04.08.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.0%

• Gasoline prices have been on a downward trend, hitting multi-month lows due to a combination of factors:
• Weaker global demand and economic uncertainties, particularly slowdowns in key markets like China and reduced diesel demand in Europe, are contributing to the downward pressure on gasoline prices.
• OPEC's decision to maintain gradual output cuts next month, despite signs of lower fuel demand, is further impacting prices negatively.
• Concerns over an energy oversupply due to subdued domestic demand in China, as highlighted by major Chinese oil producers and refiners cautioning about the situation, are also weighing on gasoline prices.
• The anticipation of a decline in gasoline inventories, as indicated by consecutive weeks of decreasing stocks, is not enough to offset the broader bearish sentiment in the market.

01.09.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 1.7%

• Gasoline prices are under pressure due to ongoing worries about sluggish demand, especially impacted by economic struggles in China that are dampening fuel consumption.
• Anticipated increase in crude oil supply, potentially through Saudi Arabia easing production cuts and Libya settling export disputes, is further depressing gasoline prices.
• The market is experiencing a decline in gasoline futures as a result of subdued demand and potential oversupply, despite attempts to stimulate consumption and resolve supply challenges.

08.09.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.3%

• Gasoline futures dropped to $2 per gallon today, a significant shift from a 6-week high, despite the recent bullish trend.
• The unexpected increase in gasoline inventories by 1.119 million barrels led to this decline, contrary to market expectations of a decrease.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, have raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply chains, causing oil prices to surge and exerting pressure on gasoline futures.
• President Biden's lack of direct opposition to a potential Israeli attack on Iran's oil facilities has added a risk premium to oil futures, contributing to the downward movement in gasoline prices.

03.09.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• The Middle East's geopolitical tensions, specifically the situation between Iran and Israel, amplified concerns about potential disruptions in the oil market, prompting increases in oil prices and subsequently lifting gasoline futures.
• Positive US economic data, which included encouraging labor market statistics and a surge in the ISM Services PMI, suggested a strong demand for fuel, further reinforcing the market's bullish trend in gasoline prices.
• Despite an unforeseen uptick in gasoline stockpiles, the overall market sentiment leaned more heavily on geopolitical aspects and economic indicators, overshadowing the impact of the inventory rise on gasoline futures.
• The convergence of heightened geopolitical uncertainties and positive economic signals resulted in the notable increase in gasoline prices, underlining the complex relationship between global occurrences and commodity markets.

03.09.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• Gasoline prices surged to a 4-week high of $2 per gallon as oil prices spiked due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The launch of ballistic missiles by Iran at Israel raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the region, leading to a rally in oil prices and subsequently pushing up gasoline futures.
• Despite the recent increase, Gasoline remains near February-2021 lows as worries persist over weak demand exacerbated by China's economic struggles and the possibility of increased crude oil supply from Saudi Arabia and Libya. These factors are putting downward pressure on Gasoline prices despite the short-term spike driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• The fluctuations in Gasoline prices highlight the intricate interplay between geopolitical events, global supply dynamics, and demand concerns, underscoring the volatility and sensitivity of energy markets to external factors beyond just traditional supply and demand fundamentals.

04.09.2023 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.1%

• Gasoline prices experienced a strong bearish movement due to the decline in WTI crude oil futures and the strength of the US dollar.
• Reduced fueling up during the back-to-school season and less favorable weather conditions also contributed to the decline.
• Despite a slight increase in gas demand, it was still lower compared to the same period last year.
• The increase in total domestic gasoline stocks further added to the bearish sentiment.

30.10.2023 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.1%

• Gasoline experienced a bearish movement today, with prices declining.
• The decline can be attributed to factors such as declining demand and steady supply, as well as the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting.
• Gasoline stocks in the United States saw a significant increase, indicating higher supply levels.
• The market also reacted to the news of a 1% decline in US gasoline consumption forecasted for 2024, which further added to the bearish sentiment.

16.10.2023 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.1%

• Gasoline prices have experienced a strong bearish movement, hitting a 48-week low and approaching an 11-month low.
• The decline in gasoline prices can be attributed to several factors, including muted fuel demand, a shift to a more cost-effective winter-blend gasoline, and a projected decline in US gasoline consumption.
• Remote work, improved fuel efficiency, high gasoline prices, and persistent inflation are some of the factors contributing to the anticipated decline in gasoline consumption.
• Surplus gasoline supplies and decreased seasonal fuel demand are also impacting gasoline futures.

15.01.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.1%

• The bearish movement in gasoline today can be attributed to the following factors:
• 1. Drawback in demand and cheaper crude oil prices: The increase in crude oil inventories in the US, along with a drop in gasoline product supplied, tempered the demand outlook for gasoline. Cheaper prices for crude oil inputs also contributed to the bearish movement.
• 2. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have created market instability. Concerns over vessel safety in the Red Sea region due to attacks by Yemen's Houthis have also impacted the market.
• 3. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries: The export capacity for Russia was hampered by the attacks on its refineries by Ukraine, adding to the overall woes in the market.
• 4. Market correction after a recent high: Gasoline had recently reached a peak in its price, and the bearish movement could be seen as a correction after the price increase.
• Overall, the bearish movement in gasoline today can be attributed to a combination of factors including demand and supply dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and market corrections after recent highs.

03.05.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 2.1%

• Gasoline futures dropped to a 3-month low due to evidence of slowing demand and ample availability, with US inventories increasing by over 2 million barrels, contrary to market expectations.
• The decrease in product supplied, a key indicator of consumer demand, by 166 thousand barrels right before Memorial Day weekend also contributed to the bearish movement.
• Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting where the cartel is expected to extend voluntary output cuts. The struggle of key oil-exporting nations to comply with production cuts raises skepticism over their ability to react to slowing demand, adding further pressure on gasoline prices.

29.01.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 8.3%

• Gasoline futures experienced a strong bullish movement due to a combination of factors:
• Recent evidence of low supply and steady demand, with gasoline demand rising and stocks decreasing, leading to a bullish sentiment in the market.
• The decision by a government to ban gasoline exports for six months to address domestic demand and refinery maintenance concerns added to the bullish outlook.
• Anticipation of a draw in gasoline inventories for the fourth consecutive period, coupled with geopolitical tensions affecting WTI crude futures, further supported the bullish trend.
• Despite signs of slowing demand and stable supply in previous weeks, the current market sentiment shifted positively, driven by the latest data and geopolitical developments.