Gasoline ($GASOLINE) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.2% Today

What is Gasoline?

Gasoline is a key commodity in the energy market, with its prices heavily influenced by factors such as crude oil prices, supply and demand dynamics, and geopolitical events.

Why is Gasoline going down?

GASOLINE commodity is down 5.2% on Sep 30, 2025 3:05

• Gasoline prices experienced a bearish movement today due to a combination of factors:
• Tracking crude oil lower, as ample domestic fuel inventories and signs of supply restoration, such as the reopening of an oil pipeline in Iraq, added pressure on prices.
• Softening seasonal demand as the driving season wanes, reducing consumption just as refineries shift to lower-cost winter blends, further impacting prices.
• Despite some rebound from a recent low, the overall outlook of muted fuel demand, driven by factors like reduced summer travel in the US and anti-involution policies in China, constrained any significant price recovery.

GASOLINE Price Chart

GASOLINE Technical Analysis

GASOLINE News

Gasoline Hits 24-week Low

Gasoline decreased to 1.93 USD/Gal, the lowest since April 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline lost 0.47%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 2.49%.

Gasoline Tracks Crude Lower

US gasoline futures tumbled below $2 per barrel tracking crude oil lower compounding with ample domestic fuel inventories Crude benchmarks have slid amid signs of supply restoration, for example, Iraq’s federal and Kurdish governments agreed to reopen an oil pipeline that had been suspended, adding roughly 230,000 barrels per day back into global flows. Meanwhile, US gasoline stocks fell only modestly in recent weeks and remain near average, weakening the urgency for tight margins. Also seasonal demand softening as the driving season wanes is reducing consumption just as refineries shift to lower-cost winter blends.

Gasoline Hits 4-week High

Gasoline increased to 2.05 USD/Gal, the highest since August 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline gained 4.12%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 4.79%.

Gasoline Holds Rebound from 5-Month Low

Gasoline futures in the US were at $2 per barrel, rebounding after testing the five-month low of $1.95 touched on September 22nd, tracking the rebound for crude oil as market reconsidered the magnitude of oversupply for global energy commodities. The EU proposed more sanctions against tankers carrying Russian crude oil and fuel. This added to lower availability in key regions as Ukrainian strikes in Russian fuel refineries drove Russian gas sales to hit a two-year low. Still, the outlook of muted fuel demand prevented a significant rebound for gasoline futures. Seasonal summer travel in the US waned toward the end of September, and anti-involution policies in China dampened manufacturing activity. Consequently, crack spreads on US gasoline futures against Brent crude oil were close to their lowest since March. This was despite a fresh drop in stocks of gasoline in the US according to the latest weekly report by the EIA, consistent with a jump in product supplied.

Gasoline Rebounds from 5-Month Low

Gasoline futures in the US were at $2 per barrel, rebounding after testing the five-month low of $1.95 touched on September 22nd, tracking the rebound for crude oil as market reconsidered the magnitude of oversupply for global energy commodities. US President Trump called for the EU to ban the purchase of Russian oil and gas, shortly after Brussels proposed more sanctions against tankers carrying Russian crude oil and fuel. This added to lower availability in key regions as Ukrainian strikes in Russian fuel refineries drove Russian gas sales to hit a two-year low. Still, the outlook of muted fuel demand prevented a significant rebound for gasoline futures. Seasonal summer travel in the US waned toward the end of September, and anti-involution policies in China dampened manufacturing activity. Consequently, crack spreads on US gasoline futures against Brent crude oil were close to their lowest since March.

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Gasoline Price History

29.07.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.2%

• Gasoline experienced a bearish movement today, dropping by 7.46% to 1.9818 USD/Gal.
• The retreat from the recent monthly high of $2.165 can be attributed to easing crude feedstock costs, stronger refinery output, recovering supply, and moderating demand.
• Factors such as declining inventories, higher refinery utilization, softening demand post-summer driving season, and elevated imports have contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline prices.
• The overall market sentiment for gasoline seems to be influenced by a combination of supply-side factors, demand dynamics, and broader trends in the energy sector, leading to the bearish movement observed today.

28.07.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.5%

• Gasoline prices reached a 4-week high at $2.17 USD/Gal before dropping below $2.14 per gallon.
• The decline in gasoline prices can be attributed to lower crude feedstock costs, increased refinery output, improved supply levels, and decreased demand as the summer driving season wraps up.
• The drop in oil benchmarks following geopolitical events has lessened refinery margins, easing the upward pressure on gasoline prices.
• Despite decreasing inventory levels and improvements in supply tightness due to higher refinery utilization and increased imports, factors like softened demand and seasonal trends have kept gasoline price gains in check.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.0%

• Gasoline futures surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, which raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, pushing prices higher.
• The drop in US crude inventories, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties and trade optimism, provided further support to Gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns about oversupply and rising inventories, the summer driving season's increased travel demand and the looming threat of hurricanes impacting supply chains added upward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• OPEC+ plans to gradually increase output, but the market remains sensitive to any disruptions that could impact supply, keeping Gasoline prices elevated.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 2.1%

• Gasoline futures surged to a three-week high of $2.12 per gallon due to a combination of factors:
• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade optimism, with recent comments relating to the US-China trade deal and uncertainties over a nuclear deal with Iran affecting market sentiment.
• Decrease in US crude inventories surpassing expectations, indicating a potential rise in gasoline demand.
• Plans by OPEC+ to increase output in July, which could impact supply dynamics and offer further support to gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns regarding oversupply and a decline in gasoline consumption, the ongoing momentum of the summer driving season, coupled with robust travel demand influenced by warm weather and increased road trips, is bolstering the upward trend in gasoline futures.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• Gasoline prices surged to a 10-week high of $2.20 per gallon due to a combination of factors:
• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade optimism.
• Decrease in US crude inventories exceeding forecasts, indicating strong demand for gasoline.
• Summer driving season gaining momentum, with increased travel demand and a surge in road trips.
• Potential supply disruptions from the prediction of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

09.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.1%

• Gasoline futures surged despite hitting a multi-month low, as fears of a global economic slowdown and escalating trade tensions between countries weighed on energy markets.
• The unexpected decision to increase oil output by 411,000 barrels per day for May, well above market expectations, contributed to concerns about oversupply and a potential glut in the oil market, impacting Gasoline prices.
• President Trump's imposition of tariffs on various countries, coupled with retaliatory measures, added to market uncertainty and the risk of a broader economic slowdown, further influencing the bullish movement in Gasoline prices.
• Despite a slight draw in gasoline stocks, the broader market selloff, supply glut worries, and weakening demand outlook due to trade tensions and economic uncertainties played a significant role in driving Gasoline prices higher today.

28.07.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 1.1%

• Gasoline prices rose due to decreasing crude oil costs, rising refinery production, and improving supply levels.
• Despite inventory reductions and continuous draws, stocks are starting to recover from seasonal lows, easing supply worries.
• Demand has weakened as the summer driving season nears its end, and increased imports have restrained the possibility of continuous price surges in the gasoline market.

23.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 8.0%

• Gasoline futures fell as fears of major supply disruptions from the Middle East eased, leading to a decline in prices.
• Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, physical oil flows remained stable, contributing to the bearish market movement.
• Increased US gasoline inventories and a sharp drop in domestic production tightened refined fuel availability, further pressuring prices downward.
• President Trump's decision to delay military intervention allowed room for diplomacy, temporarily halting the rally in gasoline prices as markets absorbed the news.

23.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 4.8%

• Gasoline futures surged to 10-month highs above $2.34 per gallon due to fears of US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and potential retaliation from Tehran, impacting broader energy markets.
• The rally in gasoline prices paused around $2.32 per gallon as diplomatic efforts were pursued following President Trump's decision to delay military intervention, easing immediate supply concerns.
• Ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainties surrounding Iran's response to diplomatic overtures have kept markets on edge, with gasoline futures hovering near 11-week highs around $2.28 per gallon.
• Gasoline futures rose to $2.25 per gallon, the highest in 11 weeks, amidst escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran, despite a sharp drop in US gasoline usage and a significant increase in inventories, adding to bearish sentiment.

31.06.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 0.7%

• Gasoline futures rose to a 6-week high due to a significant drop in inventories, signaling tighter near-term supply and pushing prices higher.
• Geopolitical risks, such as recent actions in Ukraine, added to the bullish sentiment by raising concerns about potential energy supply disruptions.
• Despite the recent price increase, projections indicate softer gasoline demand for the year, with refiners shifting focus towards diesel and jet fuel production. This has led to a persistent gasoline surplus, dampening market sentiment.

30.08.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gasoline prices experienced a bearish movement today due to a combination of factors:
• Tracking crude oil lower, as ample domestic fuel inventories and signs of supply restoration, such as the reopening of an oil pipeline in Iraq, added pressure on prices.
• Softening seasonal demand as the driving season wanes, reducing consumption just as refineries shift to lower-cost winter blends, further impacting prices.
• Despite some rebound from a recent low, the overall outlook of muted fuel demand, driven by factors like reduced summer travel in the US and anti-involution policies in China, constrained any significant price recovery.

30.08.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 4.8%

• Gasoline prices fell below $2 per barrel, tracking crude oil's downward trend driven by increased supply from Iraq and ample domestic inventories. Lower driving season demand also contributed to easing margins.
• Despite reaching a 4-week peak, Gasoline futures faced selling pressure as the market reevaluated the oversupply of global energy resources, prompting a rebound from a 5-month low. Geopolitical tensions and the EU's suggested sanctions on Russian energy products added to market uncertainty.
• President Trump's urging for the EU to halt Russian oil imports added to energy market instability affecting Gasoline futures. Reduced fuel demand projections, seasonal effects, and geopolitical events like Ukrainian strikes in Russian fuel facilities also played a role in the downward trend of Gasoline prices.