Gasoline ($GASOLINE) Commodity Forecast: Down 7.2% Today

What is Gasoline?

Gasoline is a key commodity in the energy market, with its price directly influenced by factors such as crude oil prices, refinery output, supply and demand dynamics, and geopolitical events.

Why is Gasoline going down?

GASOLINE commodity is down 7.2% on Aug 29, 2025 3:00

• Gasoline experienced a bearish movement today, dropping by 7.46% to 1.9818 USD/Gal.
• The retreat from the recent monthly high of $2.165 can be attributed to easing crude feedstock costs, stronger refinery output, recovering supply, and moderating demand.
• Factors such as declining inventories, higher refinery utilization, softening demand post-summer driving season, and elevated imports have contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline prices.
• The overall market sentiment for gasoline seems to be influenced by a combination of supply-side factors, demand dynamics, and broader trends in the energy sector, leading to the bearish movement observed today.

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Gasoline is down by 7.46%

Gasoline decreased 7.46% to 1.9818 USD/Gal

Gasoline Hits 4-week High

Gasoline increased to 2.17 USD/Gal, the highest since July 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline lost 2.23%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 3.25%.

Gasoline Retreat from Monthly High

US gasoline futures fell below $2.14 per gallon, retreating from the August 21st monthly high of $2.165, as easing crude feedstock costs, stronger refinery output, and recovering supply compounded with moderating demand. Oil benchmarks have pulled back from earlier geopolitical-driven spikes, reducing refinery margins and alleviating upward pressure on gasoline prices. EIA data through August 15th showed inventories declining by 2.72 million barrels, the sixth consecutive draw, yet stocks are beginning to rebuild from seasonal lows. At the same time, higher refinery utilization has lifted gasoline production, gradually easing tightness in supply. Demand, however, continues to soften with the summer driving season drawing to a close, while elevated imports further bolster availability, curbing the scope for sustained price gains.

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Gasoline Price History

29.07.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.2%

• Gasoline experienced a bearish movement today, dropping by 7.46% to 1.9818 USD/Gal.
• The retreat from the recent monthly high of $2.165 can be attributed to easing crude feedstock costs, stronger refinery output, recovering supply, and moderating demand.
• Factors such as declining inventories, higher refinery utilization, softening demand post-summer driving season, and elevated imports have contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline prices.
• The overall market sentiment for gasoline seems to be influenced by a combination of supply-side factors, demand dynamics, and broader trends in the energy sector, leading to the bearish movement observed today.

28.07.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.5%

• Gasoline prices reached a 4-week high at $2.17 USD/Gal before dropping below $2.14 per gallon.
• The decline in gasoline prices can be attributed to lower crude feedstock costs, increased refinery output, improved supply levels, and decreased demand as the summer driving season wraps up.
• The drop in oil benchmarks following geopolitical events has lessened refinery margins, easing the upward pressure on gasoline prices.
• Despite decreasing inventory levels and improvements in supply tightness due to higher refinery utilization and increased imports, factors like softened demand and seasonal trends have kept gasoline price gains in check.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.0%

• Gasoline futures surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, which raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, pushing prices higher.
• The drop in US crude inventories, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties and trade optimism, provided further support to Gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns about oversupply and rising inventories, the summer driving season's increased travel demand and the looming threat of hurricanes impacting supply chains added upward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• OPEC+ plans to gradually increase output, but the market remains sensitive to any disruptions that could impact supply, keeping Gasoline prices elevated.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 2.1%

• Gasoline futures surged to a three-week high of $2.12 per gallon due to a combination of factors:
• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade optimism, with recent comments relating to the US-China trade deal and uncertainties over a nuclear deal with Iran affecting market sentiment.
• Decrease in US crude inventories surpassing expectations, indicating a potential rise in gasoline demand.
• Plans by OPEC+ to increase output in July, which could impact supply dynamics and offer further support to gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns regarding oversupply and a decline in gasoline consumption, the ongoing momentum of the summer driving season, coupled with robust travel demand influenced by warm weather and increased road trips, is bolstering the upward trend in gasoline futures.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• Gasoline prices surged to a 10-week high of $2.20 per gallon due to a combination of factors:
• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade optimism.
• Decrease in US crude inventories exceeding forecasts, indicating strong demand for gasoline.
• Summer driving season gaining momentum, with increased travel demand and a surge in road trips.
• Potential supply disruptions from the prediction of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

09.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.1%

• Gasoline futures surged despite hitting a multi-month low, as fears of a global economic slowdown and escalating trade tensions between countries weighed on energy markets.
• The unexpected decision to increase oil output by 411,000 barrels per day for May, well above market expectations, contributed to concerns about oversupply and a potential glut in the oil market, impacting Gasoline prices.
• President Trump's imposition of tariffs on various countries, coupled with retaliatory measures, added to market uncertainty and the risk of a broader economic slowdown, further influencing the bullish movement in Gasoline prices.
• Despite a slight draw in gasoline stocks, the broader market selloff, supply glut worries, and weakening demand outlook due to trade tensions and economic uncertainties played a significant role in driving Gasoline prices higher today.

09.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gasoline futures plummeted to multi-week lows due to a combination of factors, including:
• OPEC+ announcing a substantial 411,000 bpd output increase for May, signaling oversupply in the global oil market.
• President Trump's trade restrictions and the escalating trade war with China, heightening fears of a global economic slowdown and reduced energy demand.
• Surging US crude inventories and falling gasoline stockpiles, indicating weakening demand for gasoline.
• The exemption of oil, gas, and refined products from Trump's tariffs provided some relief, but broader economic concerns continued to weigh heavily on the energy markets.
• Traders are closely monitoring OPEC+ meetings for potential output adjustments to counterbalance oversupply issues exacerbated by record production from countries like Kazakhstan, adding further uncertainty to Gasoline's future trajectory.

28.07.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 1.1%

• Gasoline prices rose due to decreasing crude oil costs, rising refinery production, and improving supply levels.
• Despite inventory reductions and continuous draws, stocks are starting to recover from seasonal lows, easing supply worries.
• Demand has weakened as the summer driving season nears its end, and increased imports have restrained the possibility of continuous price surges in the gasoline market.

23.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 8.0%

• Gasoline futures fell as fears of major supply disruptions from the Middle East eased, leading to a decline in prices.
• Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, physical oil flows remained stable, contributing to the bearish market movement.
• Increased US gasoline inventories and a sharp drop in domestic production tightened refined fuel availability, further pressuring prices downward.
• President Trump's decision to delay military intervention allowed room for diplomacy, temporarily halting the rally in gasoline prices as markets absorbed the news.

23.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 4.8%

• Gasoline futures surged to 10-month highs above $2.34 per gallon due to fears of US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and potential retaliation from Tehran, impacting broader energy markets.
• The rally in gasoline prices paused around $2.32 per gallon as diplomatic efforts were pursued following President Trump's decision to delay military intervention, easing immediate supply concerns.
• Ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainties surrounding Iran's response to diplomatic overtures have kept markets on edge, with gasoline futures hovering near 11-week highs around $2.28 per gallon.
• Gasoline futures rose to $2.25 per gallon, the highest in 11 weeks, amidst escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran, despite a sharp drop in US gasoline usage and a significant increase in inventories, adding to bearish sentiment.

04.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.1%

• Gasoline prices dropped significantly to multi-week lows due to a combination of factors:
• An announcement of a larger-than-expected production increase by OPEC+, signaling oversupply in the oil market and putting downward pressure on prices.
• Concerns over a global trade war intensified by recent tariffs, which could potentially slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
• Rising US crude inventories and falling gasoline stockpiles also contributed to the bearish sentiment, indicating weaker demand for gasoline.
• The seasonal uptick in demand during the spring travel season was not enough to offset the impact of supply concerns and increased input costs for refineries, leading to the downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• Traders are closely monitoring the OPEC+ meeting outcomes and potential production adjustments to address the oversupply issue and stabilize prices in the energy market.

31.06.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 0.7%

• Gasoline futures rose to a 6-week high due to a significant drop in inventories, signaling tighter near-term supply and pushing prices higher.
• Geopolitical risks, such as recent actions in Ukraine, added to the bullish sentiment by raising concerns about potential energy supply disruptions.
• Despite the recent price increase, projections indicate softer gasoline demand for the year, with refiners shifting focus towards diesel and jet fuel production. This has led to a persistent gasoline surplus, dampening market sentiment.