Prev Arrow Commodities

Crude Oil ($CRUDE) Commodity Forecast: Down 3.0% Today

Morpher AI identified a bearish signal. The commodity price may continue to fall based on the momentum of the negative news.

What is Crude Oil?

Crude Oil is a key commodity in the global market, with its price movements heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and economic indicators.

Why is Crude Oil going down?

CRUDE commodity is down 3.0% on Sep 10, 2024 14:27

  • The bearish movement in Crude Oil today can be attributed to the persistent concerns over weak demand, particularly from major consumers like China, Europe, and the US.
  • Supply disruptions from the Gulf storm, while initially providing some support to prices, were overshadowed by the overarching worries about oversupply and slowing consumption.
  • The decision by OPEC+ to postpone its planned production increase to December might have also contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices, signaling a cautious approach to managing supply in the face of uncertain demand.
  • The market sentiment remains cautious as investors weigh the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic indicators, and potential supply disruptions on the future trajectory of Crude Oil prices.

CRUDE Price Chart

CRUDE News

Oil Cuts Earlier Gains as Demand Worries Weigh

WTI crude oil futures fell to around $68.6 per barrel on Tuesday, erasing earlier gains as lingering demand concerns from China outweighed supply disruptions from a Gulf storm. Concerns over weak Chinese consumption persist, with the shift to lower-carbon fuels and a sluggish economy continuing to slow demand growth in the world’s top oil consumer. Additionally, consumption in Europe and the US is expected to decline as the summer driving season ends and refineries enter maintenance mode. Expectations of a persistent oil oversupply also weighed on the market, with OPEC+ recently postponing its planned production increase to December. Meanwhile, the US Coast Guard shut down operations at Brownsville and other small Texas ports on Monday evening due to Tropical Storm Francine. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Francine will strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall on Wednesday.

Oil Extends Gains on Supply Disruptions

WTI crude oil futures rose to around $69 per barrel on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session, as supply disruptions from a storm outweighed lingering demand concerns from China. The US Coast Guard shut down operations at Brownsville and other small Texas ports on Monday evening due to Tropical Storm Francine. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Francine will strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall on Wednesday. Meanwhile, concerns about weak Chinese consumption persist, as the shift to lower-carbon fuels and a sluggish economy continue to slow demand growth in the world’s top oil consumer. Additionally, consumption in Europe and the US is expected to decline as the summer driving season ends and refineries enter maintenance mode. In the meantime, OPEC+ has recently postponed the production increase originally planned for October, rescheduling it for December.

Crude Oil Hits 14-month Low

Crude Oil decreased to a 14-month low of 67.56 USD/Bbl. Over the past 4 weeks, Crude Oil WTI lost 10.09%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 21.49%.

Oil Set for Sharp Weekly Loss

WTI crude oil futures traded around $69.4 per barrel on Friday, poised to decline sharply over the week due to demand concerns from major oil markets. Recent data from China and the US revealed weakness in their manufacturing sectors, heightening fears of slowing demand. Additionally, potential increases in oil supply from Libya added downward pressure, following signals that political factions in Libya are nearing an agreement. However, some relief came from an unexpected large drawdown in US crude inventories. EIA data showed that US crude stocks fell by 6.9 million barrels last week, significantly exceeding market expectations of a 1.1 million barrel draw and marking the ninth consecutive decline in oil stocks over the last ten months. Furthermore, crude prices received support after OPEC+ decided to pause its planned crude production increase for the fourth quarter.

Oil Settles Near 14-Month Low

WTI crude futures settled at $69.1 per barrel on Thursday, remaining near a 14-month low, as concerns over slowing demand in the U.S. and China, combined with the potential for increased oil supply from Libya, outweighed a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 6.9 million barrel reduction in stockpiles for the week ending August 30, well above forecasts. At the same time, OPEC+ delayed planned production hikes for October and November, which analysts at Jefferies estimate will tighten fourth-quarter supply by 100,000-200,000 barrels per day. In Libya, despite political tensions, tankers began loading crude again. Meanwhile, positive U.S. economic data calmed fears over the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts, with many anticipating a reduction at its September meeting. Lower rates could help spur economic growth and boost oil demand.

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Crude Oil Price History

10.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 3.0%

  • The bearish movement in Crude Oil today can be attributed to the persistent concerns over weak demand, particularly from major consumers like China, Europe, and the US.
  • Supply disruptions from the Gulf storm, while initially providing some support to prices, were overshadowed by the overarching worries about oversupply and slowing consumption.
  • The decision by OPEC+ to postpone its planned production increase to December might have also contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices, signaling a cautious approach to managing supply in the face of uncertain demand.
  • The market sentiment remains cautious as investors weigh the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic indicators, and potential supply disruptions on the future trajectory of Crude Oil prices.

03.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

  • The decline in crude oil prices was largely driven by subdued demand and abundance of supply, resulting in WTI nearing a 7-month low.
  • Anticipation of heightened supply levels was reinforced by signals from OPEC about increased production and OPEC+ members boosting output, placing further pressure on oil prices.
  • Apprehensions regarding Chinese demand growth, exemplified by decreased factory activity and order reductions, also played a role in fostering negative sentiment in the oil market.
  • Despite some positive signs such as the upward adjustment of U.S. economic growth in Q2 and minimal crude inventories in the U.S., the overall trajectory of the crude oil market remains bearish due to a blend of demand concerns and supply outlooks.

07.10.2023 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.1%

  • Crude Oil experienced a strong bearish movement, with prices falling to a 2-1/2-month low.
  • Concerns about global demand, particularly due to China's worse-than-expected drop in exports, weighed on the market.
  • The supply side also played a role, as top crude producers Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to additional voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of the year.
  • Overall, the market movement can be attributed to a combination of demand concerns and supply dynamics.

13.09.2023 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.5%

  • Crude oil experienced a strong bullish movement today, with prices rising above $86 per barrel.
  • The ongoing conflict in southern Israel and Gaza, along with heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributed to the bullish market movement.
  • The US imposing sanctions on owners of tankers transporting Russian oil above the G7's price cap of $60 per barrel also added to the bullish sentiment.
  • Despite a significant increase in US crude inventories, supply concerns and expectations of global crude stockpile decline supported the bullish trend.

04.09.2023 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.4%

  • Crude oil experienced a strong bearish movement today, with prices falling below $88 per barrel.
  • The bearish market movement can be attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar and surging Treasury yields, which led to a selloff in risk assets.
  • Additionally, the market was influenced by the decision of OPEC+ to maintain the group's oil output policy, extending voluntary supply cuts until the end of the year.
  • The decline in crude oil prices was also influenced by strong US economic data, which boosted the dollar and Treasury yields, creating concerns about high borrowing costs and hampering the outlook on energy demand.

16.10.2023 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.3%

  • Crude Oil experienced a bearish movement due to increasing signs of low demand and eased concerns of scarce supply.
  • Oil refinery throughput in China fell, pointing to lower industrial fuel demand and slowing industrial activity.
  • US crude oil stocks increased, indicating a surplus in supply.
  • Conflicting perspectives on global oil supply and demand, with the International Energy Agency suggesting the market won't be as tight as initially thought, while OPEC emphasized strong growth trends and healthy fundamentals.

04.05.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.1%

  • Crude Oil faced a bearish movement today, hitting a 4-month low, mainly due to concerns over higher supply levels and weakening demand:
  • A decision by OPEC+ to gradually increase supply by over 500,000 barrels per day starting from October and a total of 1.8 million bpd by June 2025 played a role in the bearish sentiment.
  • Signs of economic weakness in the US, such as contracting manufacturing activity and fears of the Federal Reserve not reducing interest rates, added to the downward pressure on oil prices.
  • The market's response indicates that investors are wary of the potential consequences of increased supply and reduced demand on oil prices in the short term.

03.05.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 2.4%

  • Crude Oil hit a 14-week low at $76.28 USD/Bbl, marking a bearish trend in the market.
  • Despite supply cuts agreed upon by OPEC+, concerns about demand-side uncertainties and fears of prolonged high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve have weighed on oil prices.
  • The market was further pressured by weak demand indicators, such as a drop in energy consumption and an unexpected rise in US gasoline stockpiles, signaling a potential decrease in oil demand.
  • The combination of these factors led to a bearish movement in Crude Oil prices, despite efforts by OPEC+ to stabilize the market through supply cuts.

04.03.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 1.4%

  • The bullish movement in Crude Oil prices was supported by OPEC+ maintaining current output cuts and urging members to enhance compliance, leading to supply stability and price support.
  • Geopolitical tensions, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and fears of broader conflicts involving Iran, contributed to supply concerns and price volatility.
  • Unexpected EIA data showing an increase in US crude inventories, despite market expectations of a draw, briefly tempered the bullish momentum but was offset by declines in Cushing inventories and other petroleum products.
  • Overall, the market sentiment remains positive due to a solid demand outlook in the US, resilient labor market data, and ongoing efforts by major oil-producing countries to balance supply and demand dynamics.

02.07.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

  • The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to the combination of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and worries about global oil demand.
  • The assassination of key figures in the Middle East, including Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah's top commander, has heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions, leading to initial price surges followed by corrections.
  • Weak PMI data from major economies like the US and China, indicating a contraction in manufacturing sectors and signs of slowing demand, have further exacerbated worries about oil consumption, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
  • Despite sporadic gains driven by supply disruption fears, the overall trend remains bearish as demand-side factors continue to weigh on the market sentiment, with Crude Oil on track for its fourth consecutive weekly decline.

02.07.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.1%

  • Crude Oil prices fell due to mounting concerns about slowing global demand, highlighted by weak US and China PMI data, overshadowing worries about potential supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts.
  • The bearish movement was further fueled by a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories, indicating a surplus in supply despite geopolitical tensions.
  • Despite the ongoing Middle East worries and supply risks, the market sentiment was predominantly influenced by the significant slowdown in global economic growth, leading to the decline in Crude Oil prices.
  • The consecutive weekly declines in oil prices also reflect the persistent concerns over weakening demand and the inability of geopolitical tensions to offset the broader economic factors impacting the commodity market.
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Disclaimer
Morpher is not liable for the content of the AI investment insights. Like most GPT-powered tools, these summaries may contain AI hallucinations and inaccurate information. Morpher is not presenting you with any investment advice. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. These summaries do not constitute investment advice.