Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 6.0% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation. The market for natural gas is influenced by various factors such as supply levels, demand forecasts, weather conditions, and geopolitical events.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 6.0% on Jul 9, 2025 15:40

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement, dropping to a 6-week low.
• The decrease in prices can be attributed to rising supply levels, strong storage levels, and above-average weekly builds.
• Despite strong demand driven by hotter-than-normal weather and increased LNG exports, the surplus in storage and higher output contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• Geopolitical tensions, uncertainties around tropical storm activity, and concerns about winter supply also added volatility to the market, influencing the bearish movement of natural gas prices.

GAS Price Chart

GAS Technical Analysis

GAS News

US Natgas Prices Fall to 6-Week Low

US natural gas futures fell 5% to below $3.2/MMBtu on Wednesday, the lowest in six weeks, due to rising supply and strong storage levels. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged 106.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, up from June’s record of 106.4 bcfd. Gas in storage remains about 6% above the five-year average, with analysts expecting another above-average weekly build—the 11th in 12 weeks. Despite this surplus, demand remains strong due to forecasts of hotter-than-normal weather through late July, pushing up power usage for air conditioning. LNG exports also increased, with average gas flows to the eight major US export facilities reaching 15.6 bcfd, as plants recover from maintenance and unplanned outages.

Natural gas is down by 5%

Natural gas decreased 5% to 3.1816 USD/MMBtu

Natgas Futures Jumps as Summer Demand Heats Up

US natural gas futures rose more than 2% to above $3.4/MMBtu on Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak as hotter mid-July forecasts boosted expectations for stronger air-conditioning demand. A smaller-than-expected inventory build and potential winter supply concerns, especially for January contracts, as key upside risks. In the Lower 48, gas output slipped to 106.2 bcfd in early July, down slightly from June, while demand projections increased with warmer temperatures. LNG exports also dropped to 14.4 bcfd in June, further tightening supply. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors continue to influence the market, with US sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project curbing exports and President Trump urging the EU to increase US LNG imports. Uncertainties around tropical storm activity and its dual impact on both supply and demand also added volatility to the outlook.

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Natural Gas Price History

18.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• Natural gas futures surged to a 3-month high of $3.87/MMBtu due to hotter-than-normal July weather and rebounding LNG exports, driving up demand.
• Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly strikes on gas facilities, raised concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies, contributing to the bullish movement.
• Despite stable US natural gas fundamentals and improved storage levels, the rapid growth in LNG exports and forecasts of hotter-than-normal temperatures in the US are fueling worries about tightening supply and upward price pressure.
• Lower production levels, rising LNG demand post-maintenance, and expectations of increased cooling demand due to warmer weather further supported the bullish trend in natural gas prices.

23.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement today, dropping by 5% to $3.8807 USD/MMBtu.
• The decline in prices can be attributed to the market reacting to US natural gas futures trading around $3.9/MMBtu after a recent rise, as well as concerns over potential LNG supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
• Despite the drop, natural gas prices had been on track for a 10% weekly gain, driven by forecasts of a major heatwave across the US increasing demand for air conditioning and power generation.
• The request for a 40-month extension by Freeport LNG to complete its Train 4 expansion may have also contributed to market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and leading to the bearish movement in prices.

09.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 6.0%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement, dropping to a 6-week low.
• The decrease in prices can be attributed to rising supply levels, strong storage levels, and above-average weekly builds.
• Despite strong demand driven by hotter-than-normal weather and increased LNG exports, the surplus in storage and higher output contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• Geopolitical tensions, uncertainties around tropical storm activity, and concerns about winter supply also added volatility to the market, influencing the bearish movement of natural gas prices.

02.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• Natural gas futures surged by 7% to $3.69/MMBtu due to rising demand, lower output, and a broader energy market rally, supported by warmer-than-normal temperature forecasts boosting air conditioning demand.
• The drop in US natural gas futures to $3.5/MMBtu was influenced by reduced demand and lower gas flows to LNG export plants, as maintenance and outages at facilities like Cameron, Corpus Christi, and Sabine Pass limited flows.
• The rise to a 1-week high of $3.40/MMBtu was driven by lower output, higher expected demand, and forecasts for hotter weather, with gas flows to US LNG export plants dropping due to maintenance at facilities like Cameron, Corpus Christi, Sabine Pass, and Freeport.

30.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.3%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement today, dropping to a 5-week low.
• The market movement can be attributed to rising production levels, larger-than-expected storage builds, and a decline in gas flows to US LNG export terminals.
• Despite forecasts for continued hot weather, the easing of extreme temperatures and increased supply have put downward pressure on prices.
• The recent trend of above-average storage injections and the overall bearish sentiment in the market have contributed to the decline in natural gas prices.

26.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 6.0%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement due to:
• Rising production levels and forecasts for an easing heat wave, leading to decreased demand.
• Decrease in gas flows to US LNG export plants due to seasonal maintenance.
• Market concerns easing with a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, reducing tensions in the energy-rich Middle East.
• Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions, such as the anticipation of Iran's response to Washington's strike on its nuclear sites, also contributed to the market volatility.
• The overall market sentiment was impacted by the combination of increased production levels, reduced demand due to weather forecasts, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a significant drop in natural gas prices.

26.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 8.2%

• Natural gas prices fell to a 5-week low of $3.42/MMBtu due to rising production and a larger-than-expected storage build, leading to ample supply in the market.
• Despite forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather, temperatures are expected to ease, reducing demand for natural gas for cooling purposes.
• Gas flows to US LNG export terminals have declined, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment in the market.
• Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions are also impacting natural gas prices, with traders monitoring Iran's response to Washington's actions and the potential for supply disruptions.

20.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas futures dropped due to concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to fears of potential disruptions in energy supplies.
• Despite warmer-than-normal weather driving up cooling demand in the short term, the overall decrease in gas output in the Lower 48 states contributed to the bearish movement.
• The market sentiment was influenced by geopolitical events and concerns about tightening supply from rapid growth in LNG exports, overshadowing the temporary increase in demand from weather conditions.

20.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas dropped by 5% to $3.8807 USD/MMBtu today.
• The market movement was influenced by an increase in supply due to maintenance at key LNG plants and slightly higher output in the Lower 48 states.
• Despite the drop, the commodity had a strong weekly gain of about 10% driven by forecasts of a major heatwave across the US, resulting in record-breaking demand for air conditioning needs.
• Geopolitical tensions, such as Israel striking key military and nuclear-related sites in Iran, also contributed to concerns over LNG supply disruptions, impacting market sentiment and contributing to the bearish movement.

03.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• Hotter mid-July forecasts boosted Natural Gas prices due to expected higher air-conditioning demand.
• A smaller-than-expected inventory build and concerns over winter supply, particularly for January contracts, contributed to the bullish sentiment.
• Geopolitical factors like US sanctions on Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project and uncertainties around tropical storm activity added to market volatility and upward pressure on prices.
• Decreased gas output, warmer weather leading to higher demand projections, and reduced LNG exports tightened supply, supporting overall market sentiment.

27.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 7.4%

• Natural gas prices surged by about 5% to $3.7/MMBtu, breaking a five-day losing streak, as LNG export activity picked up and forecasts predicted hotter-than-normal weather across the US.
• The increase in gas flows to LNG plants and expectations of reduced injections into storage due to higher power generation demand during the recent heat wave contributed to the bullish movement in natural gas prices.
• Despite the recent price increase, the market remains cautious as rising production levels and forecasts of easing heat wave conditions could put pressure on prices in the near future.
• Overall, the bullish movement in natural gas prices today was primarily driven by a combination of improved export activity, weather forecasts, and changes in storage injections, indicating a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the market.

17.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.0%

• Today's surge in Natural Gas prices is linked to increased tensions in the Middle East, specifically due to Israel's actions targeting Iranian natural gas facilities. This has sparked concerns about potential disruptions in the region's energy supplies.
• Warmer-than-normal weather predictions across the US have boosted cooling demand for natural gas, potentially straining inventories.
• An upsurge in routine maintenance at LNG export plants has resulted in decreased gas flows and reduced LNG feedgas demand, impacting the market despite consistent production levels and storage remaining above average.
• Taken together, the blend of geopolitical tensions, weather forecasts, and maintenance operations within the natural gas sector is driving the current upward trend in prices.