Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.3% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation. Today, the market saw a strong bullish movement in Natural Gas prices.

Why is Natural Gas going up?

GAS commodity is up 5.3% on Feb 11, 2025 14:36

• Natural Gas futures rose significantly above $3/MMBtu due to higher LNG exports and colder weather forecasts, which are expected to boost heating demand.
• The increase in gas flows to LNG export plants, nearing December's record, and predictions of colder-than-normal weather through February 22 are contributing to the bullish trend.
• The larger-than-expected storage draw reported by the EIA and forecasts of below-normal temperatures further support the price surge.
• Despite milder weather forecasts and lower demand this week, the anticipation of increased demand next week and record-high gas withdrawals from storage are driving the bullish momentum in Natural Gas prices.

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US Natgas Prices Edge Up

US natural gas futures rose above $3.4/MMBtu, driven by higher LNG exports and colder weather forecasts, which are expected to boost heating demand. Gas flows to LNG export plants also increased to 15.1 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January, nearing December’s record. Looking ahead, meteorologists predict colder-than-normal weather through February 22, which will likely maintain high demand. Extreme cold in January likely prompted record-level withdrawals from storage, potentially close to the all-time high of 994 bcf in January 2022. On the production side, February gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 106.1 bcfd, up from 102.7 bcfd in January, though daily production is set to fall slightly. Meanwhile, Chinese tariffs on US products including LNG, are due to take effect on Monday, with no sign as yet of progress between Beijing and Washington.

US Natgas Prices Set for 10% Weekly Gain

US natural gas futures were slightly lower at $3.35/MMBtu on Friday but rose nearly 10% this week. The increase was driven by higher LNG exports and colder weather forecasts, which are expected to boost heating demand. Gas flows to LNG export plants also increased to 15.1 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January, nearing December’s record. Looking ahead, meteorologists predict colder-than-normal weather through February 22, which will likely maintain high demand. Extreme cold in January likely prompted record-level withdrawals from storage, potentially close to the all-time high of 994 bcf in January 2022. On the production side, February gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 106.1 bcfd, up from 102.7 bcfd in January, though daily production is set to fall slightly.

US Natgas Prices Edge Up after EIA Data

US natural gas futures rose above $3.3/MMBtu, supported by a larger-than-expected storage draw. The EIA reported a 174 billion cubic feet (bcf) withdrawal from storage for the week ending January 31, slightly above analysts’ expectations of 168 bcf. This draw was also larger than last year’s 110 bcf decline and matched the five-year average. Additional support came from higher flows to LNG export plants, which averaged 14.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in early February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January and surpassing the December 2023 record of 14.7 bcfd. Looking ahead, colder-than-normal conditions from February 10-14 are expected to increase heating demand.

US Natgas Futures Rise on Colder Weather and Strong LNG Demand

US natural gas futures surged over 3% to $3.35/MMBtu on Wednesday to a one-week high due to forecasts of colder weather boosting heating demand and increased gas flows to LNG export plants. Financial firm LSEG reported that average gas output in the Lower 48 states increased to 106.0 bcfd in February, rebounding from freeze-offs in January that had reduced production. However, daily output was projected to decline slightly, reaching a one-week low of 105.3 bcfd. Meanwhile, analysts predict that the recent extreme cold may have led to record-high gas withdrawals from storage. Meteorologists anticipate a shift to below-normal temperatures from February 9-14, further driving demand. In response, LSEG forecasts total gas consumption, including exports, to climb from 123.1 bcfd this week to 134.1 bcfd next week.

US Natgas Prices Steady on Wednesday

US natural gas futures stood at $3.2/MMBtu as forecasts for milder weather and lower demand this week offset expectations of higher demand next week. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 106.0 bcfd in February, surpassing January's 102.7 bcfd and December’s record 104.6 bcfd. However, daily output dropped to 105.3 bcfd on Wednesday from a record 106.5 bcfd on Jan. 31. Last week’s extreme cold drove heating demand to a record high, possibly leading to a record gas storage withdrawal. Meanwhile, gas flows to US LNG export plants hit 15.0 bcfd in February, surpassing January’s 14.6 bcfd and December’s record 14.7 bcfd.

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Natural Gas Price History

17.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas futures fell over 5% to $4/MMBtu, retreating from a two-year high as forecasts pointed to milder weather in February, reducing heating demand.
• Despite the retreat, prices remain near a two-year high due to forecasts of colder weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend, which could impact gas production and pipelines, driving up heating demand.
• The significant withdrawal of 258 billion cubic feet of gas from storage for the week ending January 10, exceeding expectations, has contributed to the recent market movement.
• Gas flows to the major US LNG export facilities have hit record highs, further boosting overall demand, despite the temporary bearish movement in the market.

31.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas futures fell to multi-week lows due to warmer-than-expected weather forecasts, reducing heating demand and leading to oversupply concerns.
• The significant gas withdrawal reported, combined with expectations of surplus elimination, added pressure on prices.
• Increasing LNG exports, particularly with the restart of a Texas facility, could contribute to further oversupply in the market.
• The anticipation of a major winter storm impacting the US raised concerns about demand, exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the natural gas market.

22.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was primarily driven by forecasts of record demand and colder weather, leading to increased heating needs and a surge in overall demand.
• The significant withdrawal of gas from storage, exceeding expectations and previous figures, also contributed to the bullish sentiment.
• The easing of prices from the two-year high can be attributed to forecasts of milder weather ahead, allowing traders to take profits and investors to focus on the expected decrease in demand for gas-intensive heating.
• The potential energy emergency declaration and regulatory changes could have added some uncertainty to the market, impacting the price movement of Natural Gas.

27.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Today's downward movement in Natural Gas prices is due to the anticipation of a major winter storm in the US, expected to affect various regions with heavy snow and severe weather conditions. Concerns have arisen about increased demand for gas for heating purposes.
• A smaller-than-expected storage draw reported by the EIA has slightly eased gains in prices, suggesting a temporary relief in supply constraints.
• An operational issue at Freeport LNG's Texas export plant, caused by a rare Gulf Coast winter storm, has further decreased LNG feedgas demand, contributing to the downward pressure on Natural Gas prices.
• In conclusion, weather predictions, storage data, and operational challenges at LNG facilities have collectively generated a bearish sentiment in the Natural Gas market, causing prices to decline despite initial increases.

28.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Today's bearish movement in the natural gas market can be attributed to:
• Warmer-than-expected weather forecasts for early February reducing anticipated heating demand, leading to a drop in prices.
• The anticipation of a major winter storm impacting parts of the US, which could potentially shift the broader weather pattern as February begins, causing traders to sell off their positions.
• The smaller-than-anticipated storage draw according to the latest report, which fell short of market expectations, signaling a potential surplus in inventories compared to the five-year average, easing the demand for natural gas.
• The power issue at a Texas export plant due to a rare Gulf Coast winter storm, resulting in lower LNG feedgas demand, which may have contributed to the overall bearish sentiment in the market.

29.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 15.6%

• Natural gas prices dropped due to warmer-than-expected weather forecasts for early February, reducing anticipated heating demand.
• The anticipation of a major winter storm expected to impact parts of the US this week led to a further decrease in prices as traders weighed the potential impact on supply and demand.
• Despite significant storage draws, smaller than anticipated, and record-high demand due to frigid temperatures, the market sentiment was influenced by weather forecasts and the operational issues faced by LNG export plants like Freeport LNG's Texas facility.
• The increase in LNG exports and the potential elimination of the gas inventory surplus compared to the five-year average added to the market dynamics, contributing to the bearish movement in natural gas prices.

29.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas prices hit multi-week lows as warmer weather forecasts for early February reduced heating demand, leading to a bearish market movement.
• The expectation of a significant gas withdrawal for the week ending January 24, potentially eliminating the gas inventory surplus, also contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• The increase in LNG exports, particularly with the restart of Freeport LNG's Texas facility, added to the bearish sentiment in the market.
• Despite some short-term fluctuations, the overall trend for natural gas remains influenced by weather forecasts and supply-demand dynamics, emphasizing the importance of monitoring these factors for trading decisions.

16.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

• Natural gas futures surged above $4/MMBtu, nearing the highest levels since January 2023, driven by forecasts of colder weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend, expected to increase heating demand significantly.
• The potential freeze-offs in gas wells and pipelines, along with expectations of utilities withdrawing over 200 billion cubic feet of gas from storage in the next few weeks, have contributed to the bullish momentum.
• The decline in gas flows to the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas and the reduction in gas curtailments due to freezing wells have also played a role in pushing prices higher, despite the market experiencing some losses in the past few days.
• With colder-than-normal temperatures expected to persist through late January and concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical events, the natural gas market remains highly sensitive to shifts in supply and demand, keeping prices elevated.

24.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas futures dropped as demand outlook eased due to forecasts of warmer weather, leading traders to take profits and investors to focus on upcoming milder days.
• Potential regulation changes under the current administration raised expectations of declaring an energy emergency to boost energy output in the US.
• The significant withdrawal of gas from storage and the uncertainty surrounding the approval of LNG export licenses contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• The temporary shutdown of a major LNG export plant due to a power issue during a winter storm also impacted the market by lowering LNG feedgas demand to a six-week low.

17.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.2%

• Natural Gas futures surged to a two-year high of $4.3/MMBtu driven by forecasts of record demand and colder weather, leading to increased heating needs and higher withdrawals from storage.
• Despite a slight dip in prices to $4.055/MMBtu after a report, the market remains near its two-year high due to expectations of colder-than-expected weather and rising LNG exports.
• Prices topping $4/MMBtu, nearing levels not seen since January 2023, were influenced by predictions of freezing conditions disrupting production, surging heating demand, and potential record withdrawals from storage.
• Even as prices held near $3.95/MMBtu, speculators increased long positions, anticipating significant withdrawals from inventories that could eliminate the storage surplus and drop stockpiles below the five-year average by month-end.

06.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.5%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to forecasts of colder weather increasing heating demand and strong LNG export demand.
• The anticipation of below-normal temperatures and record-high gas withdrawals from storage due to recent extreme cold weather further fueled the bullish sentiment.
• Despite the recent bearish trend in Natural Gas prices due to milder weather forecasts and weaker demand, the current bullish movement seems to be driven by the immediate weather outlook and robust demand from LNG export plants.
• The pause in trade tariffs between certain countries and concerns over disruptions in LNG trade due to tariff actions may have also impacted the market movement.

11.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.3%

• Natural Gas futures rose significantly above $3/MMBtu due to higher LNG exports and colder weather forecasts, which are expected to boost heating demand.
• The increase in gas flows to LNG export plants, nearing December's record, and predictions of colder-than-normal weather through February 22 are contributing to the bullish trend.
• The larger-than-expected storage draw reported by the EIA and forecasts of below-normal temperatures further support the price surge.
• Despite milder weather forecasts and lower demand this week, the anticipation of increased demand next week and record-high gas withdrawals from storage are driving the bullish momentum in Natural Gas prices.