Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.2% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation. The market for natural gas is influenced by various factors including supply and demand dynamics, weather conditions, geopolitical tensions, and trade uncertainties.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 5.2% on Mar 12, 2025 11:01

• The bearish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to rising output levels and forecasts for milder weather, which outweighed increased demand and record LNG export flows.
• Trade tensions, such as recent announcements of plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, might have added pressure on the market sentiment.
• Despite the recent bearish movement, the overall trend for Natural Gas has been bullish, with prices hitting a 26-month high recently due to extreme weather conditions, supply constraints, record LNG exports, and geopolitical tensions.
• The market is also closely monitoring US natural gas inventories, which are expected to fall below the five-year average by the end of March, leading to a tighter supply situation and potentially supporting prices in the near term.

GAS Price Chart

GAS Technical Analysis

GAS News

US Natgas Prices Fall from 26-Month High

US natural gas futures fell below $4.4/MMBtu, retreating from a 26-month high of $4.5 on March 10, as rising output and forecasts for milder weather outweighed increased demand and record LNG export flows. Gas production in the Lower 48 states rose to an average of 105.8 bcfd so far in March, up from February’s record 105.1 bcfd. Meanwhile, the EIA’s latest forecast predicts US natural gas inventories will fall below 1.7 trillion cubic feet by the end of March—10% below the five-year average. This tighter supply prompted the EIA to raise its 2025 Henry Hub price forecast to $4.20/MMBtu, an 11% increase, with prices expected to reach $4.50/MMBtu in 2026. Meanwhile, trade tensions flared as Trump announced plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% in response to Ontario’s 25% electricity surcharge. However, after Ontario paused the surcharge, the White House clarified that only the original 25% tariff will take effect.

US Natural Gas Prices Exceed 2022 Highs

US natural gas futures soared nearly 5% to $4.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest level since December 2022, fueled by extreme weather, supply constraints, record LNG exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bitter cold has driven up heating demand, while freezing temperatures have triggered "freeze-offs" and production disruptions. Meteorologists forecast a shift in weather patterns, with the Lower 48 states transitioning from mostly warmer-than-normal conditions between March 6-15 to predominantly colder-than-normal temperatures from March 16-21. Also, LNG exports surged to an all-time high of 15.6 bcfd last month while trade uncertainties, including a potential slowdown in Canadian gas exports to the US, add to supply concerns, making it more difficult to replenish storage levels. Despite these pressures, gas production in the Lower 48 states has risen to an average of 105.8 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

Natural gas Hits 26-month High

Natural gas increased to a 26-month high of 4.64 USD/MMBtu. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural gas gained 35.17%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 150.01%.

US Natgas Prices Fall from 25-Month High

US natural gas futures fell to $4.3/MMBtu from a 25-month high of $4.5 in the previous session, following EIA data showing a smaller-than-expected storage draw. US utilities withdrew 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas for the week ending February 28, below market forecasts of 96 bcf, bringing total inventories to 1,760 bcf. Despite record production of 104.7 bcfd in February, storage levels remain 24.9% lower than a year ago and 11.3% below the five-year average. LNG exports also surged to a record 15.6 bcfd last month, supported by new capacity at Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant. However, forecasts for milder weather through March 18 are expected to curb heating demand.

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Natural Gas Price History

07.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas prices dropped today as a result of a smaller-than-expected storage draw and forecasts for milder weather conditions.
• Record production levels and increased LNG exports added to the downward pressure on prices, despite stockpiles remaining below the five-year average.
• The market sentiment was also impacted by expectations of reduced heating demand with the anticipated milder weather until March 18.
• The fluctuation in natural gas prices underlines the significance of monitoring storage levels, production rates, and weather forecasts for well-informed trading decisions.

04.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 14.1%

• Natural gas prices surged due to record LNG export flows and stronger demand forecasts, moving closer to a 25-month high.
• Despite milder weather expected, gas demand in the Lower 48 states is projected to be higher than anticipated, supported by lower stockpiles due to earlier extreme cold.
• The rebound in prices was also driven by record LNG export flows, with gas output hitting a fresh record in February, despite forecasts for milder weather reducing heating demand.
• The slight price increase was supported by record gas flows to LNG export plants and cooler weather forecasts, with gas storage withdrawals exceeding expectations, contributing to the bullish movement.

10.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas prices fell today due to a smaller-than-expected storage draw, despite record production levels and surging LNG exports.
• Forecasts for milder weather and reduced heating demand through March 18 are expected to have contributed to the decline in prices.
• The market was also influenced by trade uncertainties, supply constraints, and geopolitical tensions, making it challenging to replenish storage levels.
• Despite these pressures, gas production in the Lower 48 states has continued to rise, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting the natural gas market.

21.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas prices declined by 5.07% to $4.0632/MMBtu.
• The shift in prices today was influenced by profit-taking ahead of an upcoming storage report, after a recent price rally that lasted seven days and drove prices to their highest levels since December 2022.
• It is anticipated that the upcoming energy storage report will show a draw of 191 bcf, while extreme cold weather conditions have increased heating demand and caused disruptions in oil and gas production.
• Notwithstanding the decrease in prices currently, the overall trend for natural gas has been an upward one, with recent highs reached due to persistent cold weather, supply interruptions, and heightened demand from LNG export facilities.

21.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.5%

• Natural gas prices surged to a 25-month high of $4.36/MMBtu, marking a significant bullish movement driven by several factors:
• Cold weather conditions in the US increased heating demand and froze oil and gas wells, leading to supply disruptions.
• Output fell, reaching a four-week low, while gas flows to LNG export plants hit record levels, tightening supply.
• Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures through February 22 are expected to sustain high demand for natural gas.
• The rally in gas futures, extending over seven days, pushed prices into technically overbought territory, indicating strong bullish momentum in the market.

03.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 8.5%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was driven by record LNG export flows and stronger demand forecasts, despite milder weather expected through March 18.
• The reduced storage levels due to extreme cold earlier in the year and the record gas withdrawals contributed to the price increase.
• Despite the strong LNG exports and tight storage, warmer weather forecasts and record production levels led to some price fluctuations, with prices falling on days when milder weather was anticipated.
• The overall trend of Natural Gas prices seems to be influenced by a delicate balance between demand forecasts, production levels, LNG exports, and weather conditions, creating volatility in the market.

12.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• The bearish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to rising output levels and forecasts for milder weather, which outweighed increased demand and record LNG export flows.
• Trade tensions, such as recent announcements of plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, might have added pressure on the market sentiment.
• Despite the recent bearish movement, the overall trend for Natural Gas has been bullish, with prices hitting a 26-month high recently due to extreme weather conditions, supply constraints, record LNG exports, and geopolitical tensions.
• The market is also closely monitoring US natural gas inventories, which are expected to fall below the five-year average by the end of March, leading to a tighter supply situation and potentially supporting prices in the near term.

26.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.3%

• Today's bearish movement in Natural Gas prices can be attributed to:
• Forecasts for warmer weather reducing demand for heating purposes, leading to lower consumption.
• Record production levels and stabilizing output after freeze-offs, easing concerns about supply shortages.
• Milder conditions expected through the upcoming days, alleviating pressure on prices.
• Overall market sentiment shifting due to a combination of factors, including reduced demand and improved production levels.

26.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was primarily driven by colder-than-normal temperatures across the US, increasing heating demand and leading to significant withdrawals from storage.
• Supply concerns were heightened as stockpiles dropped to approximately 11% below the five-year average, while daily gas output fluctuated due to extreme cold weather conditions.
• Despite near-record production levels and forecasts of warmer-than-normal conditions ahead, the market remained bullish as traders closely monitored supply trends and weather forecasts to anticipate the next market move.
• The recent bearish movement in prices was attributed to forecasts of milder weather and stabilizing production, easing supply concerns that had previously driven prices to a 25-month high.

19.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 9.3%

• Natural gas futures surged to a 25-month high of $4.36/MMBtu due to extreme cold weather increasing heating demand and disrupting oil and gas output.
• The sharp rally pushed prices into technically overbought territory, with analysts expecting colder-than-normal weather to sustain elevated gas demand.
• Gas flows to LNG export plants have hit record levels, highlighting the strong demand for natural gas despite some pullback from a three-week high as forecasts indicated milder weather.
• The increase in natural gas prices is also reflected in the oil-to-gas ratio falling to its lowest level since December 2022, emphasizing the relative strength of natural gas in the current market conditions.

03.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.5%

• Natural gas prices surged recently due to strong LNG export demand and tightening stockpiles despite near-record production levels. This increase was catalyzed by colder-than-expected weather earlier in the year, prompting significant withdrawals from storage.
• Subsequently, prices declined as forecasts indicated warmer weather and record production, overshadowing strong LNG exports and tight storage. The combination of milder conditions and high production levels led to the price drop.
• Following the decline, prices bounced back above $4.1/MMBtu, nearing a 25-month high. This upward movement was fueled by record LNG exports and reduced storage levels attributed to cold weather and high LNG demand.
• Prices saw another increase, reaching $4/MMBtu, supported by record gas flows to LNG export plants and slightly cooler weather forecasts. The rise was influenced by heightened flows to LNG plants and a storage withdrawal.

20.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

• Natural Gas futures surged to a 25-month high of $4.36/MMBtu, driven by extreme cold weather increasing heating demand and disrupting oil and gas output.
• The market witnessed a seven-day winning streak, the longest since July 2021, with prices entering technically overbought territory for the second consecutive session.
• Analysts expect the cold weather to persist, sustaining elevated gas demand, while record levels of gas flows to LNG export plants further supported the bullish momentum.
• The sharp rally in Natural Gas prices also impacted major US gas producers positively, with the oil-to-gas ratio falling to its lowest level since December 2022, highlighting the relative strength of gas in the current market conditions.