Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 6.3% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation. Today, the market experienced a strong bearish movement.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 6.3% on Nov 22, 2024 14:41

• Natural Gas prices fell from a recent one-year high due to expectations of ample output next year and higher export capacity.
• Forecasts of colder weather expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season, leading to a decrease in prices.
• Supply concerns in Europe and an increase in LNG feed gas flows limited domestic supply, contributing to the bearish movement.
• Despite the recent drop, prices remained nearly 20% higher in November, indicating ongoing volatility in the market.

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Natural Gas Eases from 1-Year HIgh

US natural gas prices fell to $3.2/MMBtu after touching a one-year high of $3.35 on November 21st amid an ample output next year. The EIA noted that US drillers are expected to raise output for the first time since the pandemic next year amid higher export capacity and global demand for US LNG. Still, prices remained nearly 20% higher in November as forecasts of colder weather expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season. Data from the EIA showed that gas storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet on the week ending November 15th instead of expectations of a 5 billion cubic feet build, as relatively low prices in the prior week drove producers to cut output. In turn, the most recent forecasts pointed to colder-than-usual temperatures on the West Coast and most of the nation besides the Gulf Coast. In turn, supply concerns in Europe ahead of the turn of the year drove LNG feed gas flows to rise to a 10-month high, limiting domestic supply.

Natural Gas Extends Surge

US natural gas prices soared by 7% to 4.3/MMBtu, extending yesterday’s 6% surge to the highest in one year, as forecasts of colder weather lifted the outlook on heating demand and expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season. Data from the EIA showed that gas storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet on the week ending November 15th instead of expectations of a 5 billion cubic feet build, an expedited first drop of the season, as relatively low prices in the prior week drove producers to cut output. In turn, the most recent forecasts pointed to colder-than-usual temperatures on the West Coast and most of the nation besides the Gulf Coast. In turn, supply concerns in Europe ahead of the turn of the year drove LNG feed gas flows to rise to a 10-month high, limiting domestic supply.

US Natural Gas Rises to 1-Year HIgh

US natural gas prices soared over 6% for back-to-back sessions toward $3.4/MMBtu, the highest in one year, as forecasts of colder weather lifted the outlook on heating demand and expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season. Data from the EIA due later in the day is expected to show a slight increase in national storage, likely the last of the season, as relatively low prices in the prior week drove producers to cut output. In turn, the most recent forecasts pointed to colder-than-usual temperatures on the West Coast and most of the nation besides the Gulf Coast. In turn, supply concerns in Europe ahead of the turn of the year drove LNG feed gas flows to rise to a 10-month high, limiting domestic supply.

US Natural Gas Prices Hit 5-Month High

US natural gas futures rose more than 6% to almost $3.2/MMBtu, the highest since June 11th, as colder weather at the end of November is expected to boost heating demand. According to the most recent short-term forecast (6-14 days) from the NOAA, colder than usual temperatures are anticipated to extend from the West Coast across most of the nation, excluding the Gulf Coast and East Coast. At the same time, the supply of feedgas to U.S. LNG export terminals has risen to 14.07 billion cubic feet per day, marking its peak since January 2024 and compared to last week's average of 13.5 billion cubic feet per day. Moreover, export volumes to Mexico are currently projected at 6.6 billion cubic feet per day, underscoring robust demand from the region. At the same time, production has slightly decreased, with average output in the Lower 48 states falling to 100.6 bcfd from 101.3 bcfd in October.

Natural gas Hits 12-month High

Natural gas increased to a 12-month high of 3.16 USD/MMBtu. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural gas gained 36.55%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 7.13%.

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Natural Gas Price History

05.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.3%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was driven by an impending hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and forecasts for stronger-than-expected demand, leading to concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• The retreat from a 4-month high was caused by shifting perceptions on supply risks from the Middle East, triggering declines in futures prices amid evidence of ample domestic supply and expectations of more moderate cold weather, which limited demand for gas-intensive heating.
• The temporary shutdown at Freeport impacting U.S. LNG exports and the increase in production projected for late 2024 and 2025 also played a role in the market movement, highlighting the importance of supply-side factors in influencing Natural Gas prices.

21.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 8.0%

• Natural Gas prices surged by over 5% to reach a 12-month high, driven by forecasts of colder weather increasing heating demand and expectations of the storage withdrawing season.
• The unexpected drop in gas storage, coupled with producers cutting output due to low prices, contributed to the bullish momentum.
• Rising LNG feed gas flows due to supply concerns in Europe and robust demand from Mexico further limited domestic supply, supporting the price increase.
• Overall, the combination of weather forecasts, supply constraints, and production adjustments led to Natural Gas hitting a significant high, reflecting the market's response to changing dynamics in the energy sector.

21.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 9.1%

• Natural gas prices surged to a 1-year high of $3.4/MMBtu due to forecasts of colder weather boosting heating demand and expectations of the storage withdrawing season starting soon.
• The rise in US natural gas futures to a 5-month high of $3.2/MMBtu was driven by colder weather predictions at the end of November, increased feedgas supply to LNG export terminals, and reduced production levels.
• With natural gas hitting a 12-month high and a 23-week high, the consistent upward trend over the past weeks and months can be attributed to a combination of weather forecasts, supply-demand dynamics, and global factors impacting the commodity market.

11.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• The recent surge in Natural Gas prices was caused by production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico due to storm Rafael, resulting in significant supply constraints.
• Anticipated cooler weather and heightened heating demand further boosted prices, alongside reduced production levels due to pipeline issues and curtailments in the Gulf of Mexico.
• Despite initial worries about Hurricane Rafael's impact on natural gas operations, its downgrade to a tropical storm while moving through the Gulf allayed concerns of prolonged disruptions, reinforcing the bullish price trend.
• Market sentiment was also impacted by the EIA's report of a higher-than-expected gas storage increase, pointing to robust demand and possible supply challenges in the near term.

22.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 6.3%

• Natural Gas prices fell from a recent one-year high due to expectations of ample output next year and higher export capacity.
• Forecasts of colder weather expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season, leading to a decrease in prices.
• Supply concerns in Europe and an increase in LNG feed gas flows limited domestic supply, contributing to the bearish movement.
• Despite the recent drop, prices remained nearly 20% higher in November, indicating ongoing volatility in the market.

29.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 14.7%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to:
• Forecasts for cooler weather and increased heating demand over the next two weeks, driving up prices.
• Rising global gas prices expected to boost U.S. LNG exports, creating a positive outlook for the market.
• Expectations of utilities adding less gas to storage than usual, indicating a tightening supply situation.
• Overall, the market sentiment seems to be bullish due to a combination of weather forecasts and supply-demand dynamics favoring higher prices.

20.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 6.0%

• Natural gas prices surged to a 12-month high of 3.16 USD/MMBtu, marking a significant increase in the past month.
• The bullish trend can be attributed to expectations of higher demand due to colder weather forecasts at the end of November, which are set to boost heating demand.
• Additionally, the decrease in production levels and the rise in gas exports to US LNG plants have also contributed to the upward momentum in natural gas prices.
• Overall, the combination of increased demand expectations and a slight decline in production levels has propelled natural gas to reach new highs in the market.

20.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 7.3%

• Natural Gas prices surged to a 5-month high of $3.2/MMBtu, driven by colder weather forecasts boosting heating demand.
• The increase in supply of feedgas to U.S. LNG export terminals and robust demand from Mexico contributed to the bullish momentum.
• Production levels slightly decreased, indicating a potential tightening of supply, while export volumes to LNG plants rose, further supporting the price rally.
• Overall, the combination of weather forecasts, supply-demand dynamics, and production trends painted a bullish picture for Natural Gas prices, pushing them to multi-month highs.

20.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

• Prices of natural gas surged to a 23-week high due to expectations of higher demand driven by colder weather forecasts at the end of November, which will boost heating demand.
• The increase in gas exports to US LNG plants and the slight decrease in production have also contributed to the bullish movement.
• The anticipation of a decline in gas production in 2024, the first drop since the pandemic, as many producers reduced drilling activities due to lower prices, has further supported the upward trend.
• Despite the recent EIA data showing a storage build slightly below expectations, the overall market sentiment remains positive, with forecasts indicating warmer-than-usual conditions in the short term and a potential increase in heating demand towards the end of November.

14.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas futures fell due to higher-than-expected storage builds, currently 6% above the seasonal norm, leading to concerns about oversupply.
• Warmer-than-usual weather forecasts through late November are dampening heating demand, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
• Production disruptions from Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico have also impacted output levels, adding to the bearish sentiment in the market.
• The combination of increased storage levels, reduced heating demand, and production challenges has created a perfect storm for the bearish movement in Natural Gas prices today.

14.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas futures fell below $2.9/MMBtu due to higher-than-expected storage builds, with storage levels currently 6% above the seasonal norm.
• Warmer-than-usual weather forecasts through late November are keeping heating demand low, allowing utilities to inject more gas into storage, further pressuring prices.
• Production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico due to recent events have also contributed to the decline in output, exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market.
• Despite expectations of increased heating demand later in November, the current market conditions and production challenges are outweighing any potential bullish factors, leading to the bearish movement in natural gas prices.

31.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas futures saw a significant drop today, moving sharply lower from recent highs.
• The decline is attributed to changing views on supply risks from the Middle East, particularly due to Israel's actions targeting Iran's oil infrastructure and Tehran's decision not to retaliate further, which has eased concerns about supply disruptions.
• Warmer weather forecasts in the US are leading to reduced heating demand, allowing for increased gas storage injections and putting further pressure on prices.
• Maintenance work at LNG facilities in Louisiana, such as Cheniere Energy and Cameron LNG, is projected to limit feedgas supply below peak levels, adding to the overall bearish sentiment in the natural gas market.