Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.4% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation, with its prices highly influenced by weather forecasts and supply-demand dynamics. Today, the market experienced a strong bullish movement.

Why is Natural Gas going up?

GAS commodity is up 5.4% on Feb 6, 2026 15:42

• Natural Gas prices surged due to a combination of factors:
• A smaller-than-expected storage draw eased concerns of tight supply, leading to increased confidence in the market.
• Strong LNG demand and higher flows to export terminals supported prices, indicating robust global demand for US gas.
• Warmer weather forecasts reduced heating demand concerns, balancing out the market dynamics.
• The recent cold snap likely resulted in heavy storage withdrawals, shifting inventories from above seasonal norms to slightly below average, further tightening supply.

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Natural Gas Prices in the US Stabilize

US natural gas futures were little changed around $3.50 per MMBtu on Friday and are on track to end the week down nearly 20%, almost reversing the roughly 20% surge seen in the previous period. Traders assessed a record 360 Bcf withdrawal from US underground natural gas storage last week, which left inventories 27 Bcf below the five-year average, compared with a 143 Bcf surplus in the prior week. Meanwhile, production has begun to recover, with Lower 48 output rising to around 106.6 bcfd in early February from January levels. At the same time, mid-February weather forecasts have shifted markedly warmer particularly across the northeastern US, reducing expected heating demand following last week’s Arctic blast.

US Natgas Prices Fall After Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Draw

US natural gas futures fell more than 2% to $3.39 per MMBtu on Thursday after a record storage withdrawal came in smaller than expected and warmer weather forecasts reduced demand concerns. The EIA reported a record 360 bcf draw for the week to January 30, above last year and the five year average but below forecasts for a 374 bcf decline, easing fears of tighter supply. Prices were also pressured by expectations for milder temperatures and lower heating demand over the next two weeks after last week’s Arctic blast. Production has begun to recover, with Lower 48 output rising to about 106.6 bcfd in early February from January levels. Storage fell sharply after the cold snap and is now about 1% below seasonal norms, compared with 5% above normal a week earlier. Meanwhile, LNG export flows have strengthened to 18.4 bcfd in February, close to record highs.

US Natgas Prices Little Changed Ahead EIA Data

US natural gas futures were little changed at $3.45 per million British thermal units on Thursday, as traders awaited the weekly EIA storage report and weighed strong LNG demand against milder weather forecasts. Analysts expect heavy withdrawals during last week’s Arctic blast to have shifted inventories from about 5% above normal to roughly 1% below normal for this time of year, tightening supply. Gas flows to the eight largest US LNG export plants averaged 18.3 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and near December’s record 18.5 bcfd, reflecting strong global demand for US gas. The US became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023 amid supply disruptions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Weather is expected to turn mostly warmer nationwide through February 19, though the Northeast will remain colder for another week. Production in the Lower 48 edged up to 106.4 bcfd but remains below December’s record levels.

US Natgas Prices Rise on Strong LNG Demand

US natural gas futures rose almost 5% to $3.46 per million British thermal units on Wednesday, supported by higher flows to liquefied natural gas export plants. Average gas flows to the eight largest US LNG export terminals rose to 18.3 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January, approaching December’s record of 18.5 bcfd. The US became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023 as global demand surged following supply disruptions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Temperatures are expected to be mostly warmer than normal through February 19, though the Northeast will remain below average for another week. Average gas production in the Lower 48 states edged up to 106.4 bcfd in February from 106.3 bcfd in January. Analysts expect that heavy withdrawals during last week’s Arctic blast reduced storage from about 5% above normal to roughly 1% below normal, maintaining near-term supply pressures.

US Natural Prices Steady After Historic Daily Drop

US natural gas futures hovered near $3.27/MMBtu after suffering a dramatic 25.7% collapse on Monday, the steepest one-day drop since 1995. The sharp reversal followed a major shift in weather expectations, with forecasts now pointing to much milder, near-normal temperatures across most of the US through mid-February. This change came after around ten days of extreme cold that had driven heating demand to unusually high levels. As temperatures rise, frozen wells are thawing, allowing gas output to rebound quickly. Daily output recently hit 111.6 bcfd, the strongest since January 20. Even so, the recent cold snap likely led to very heavy storage withdrawals, potentially pushing inventories from above seasonal norms to slightly below average by late January. Meanwhile, LNG export flows remain strong, near record levels, limiting how far prices may fall despite the improving supply picture.

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Natural Gas Price History

26.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 7.3%

• Natural gas prices surged above $7/MMBtu, marking a significant increase driven by a historic winter storm disrupting supply and increasing heating demand.
• The extreme cold weather in the US led to nearly 10% of natural gas production being knocked offline, while heating and power demand soared, pushing prices higher.
• With production disruptions and concerns about ice forming in pipelines, the market is closely monitoring how long these challenges will persist, potentially leading to further upside in prices.
• The rally in natural gas prices, with significant gains over the past week, reflects the impact of weather-related events on supply and demand dynamics, highlighting the volatility of commodity markets in response to external factors.

04.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.3%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to the strong demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, with flows to export plants increasing and prices rising despite milder weather forecasts.
• The recent volatility in Natural Gas prices, including significant drops and rebounds, is a reflection of the market's sensitivity to weather forecasts and demand expectations.
• The impact of warmer weather outlooks on curbing heating demand, coupled with the ongoing strength in LNG export flows, has created a dynamic pricing environment for Natural Gas futures.

03.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 12.3%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement due to warmer weather forecasts across the US, leading to reduced heating demand and lower consumption expectations.
• The recent collapse in prices was triggered by milder temperatures replacing the extreme cold snap, allowing for a quick rebound in gas output as frozen wells thawed.
• Despite the price decline, LNG export flows remained strong, limiting the extent of the fall in prices despite the improved supply situation.
• The market's volatility was evident in recent weeks, with prices surging to multi-year highs before the shift in weather forecasts and the return of production from frozen wells contributed to the significant drop in prices.

05.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.6%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to:
• Traders awaiting the weekly storage data and expecting heavy withdrawals during the recent Arctic blast to tighten supply.
• Strong LNG demand, with gas flows to US export plants remaining high, reflecting robust global demand for US gas.
• Weather forecasts indicating colder temperatures in the Northeast, maintaining demand for heating.
• The recent bearish market movements were caused by:
• Warmer weather outlooks reducing heating demand and curbing power generation needs.
• Forecasts of milder conditions across the US, leading to a decrease in natural gas consumption.
• The volatility in Natural Gas prices can be seen as a result of conflicting weather forecasts, supply disruptions, and fluctuations in LNG export flows, creating uncertainty in the market.
• Overall, the market movement of Natural Gas today reflects the delicate balance between supply, demand, and weather conditions, showcasing the commodity's sensitivity to external factors.

06.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

• Natural Gas prices surged due to a combination of factors:
• A smaller-than-expected storage draw eased concerns of tight supply, leading to increased confidence in the market.
• Strong LNG demand and higher flows to export terminals supported prices, indicating robust global demand for US gas.
• Warmer weather forecasts reduced heating demand concerns, balancing out the market dynamics.
• The recent cold snap likely resulted in heavy storage withdrawals, shifting inventories from above seasonal norms to slightly below average, further tightening supply.

27.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 13.2%

• Natural gas futures experienced a strong bearish movement today, dropping over 7% to $6.27 per MMBtu after a significant rally in the previous sessions.
• Warmer forecasts and the return of some frozen wells to service contributed to the price decline, as well as projections of slightly less severe cold in certain regions.
• Despite the pullback, supply risks remain elevated with ongoing weather-driven supply disruptions and power emergencies being declared in certain regions, highlighting the volatility and sensitivity of the natural gas market to external factors.
• The market will continue to monitor production disruptions and weather patterns closely, as prolonged outages could potentially lead to further price fluctuations in the future.

27.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 7.1%

• Natural gas futures surged over 17% to above $6 per MMBtu, reaching levels not seen since December 2022, driven by a severe winter storm disrupting supply and boosting heating demand.
• The extreme cold weather knocked offline nearly 10% of US natural gas production, leading to concerns about prolonged production disruptions and further price increases.
• Despite the significant rally, prices pulled back slightly as traders took profits, highlighting the volatility in the market influenced by ongoing weather-driven supply disruptions and elevated supply risks.
• The market remains focused on how long production outages will last, with authorities taking measures to ensure adequate natural gas supplies for residential heating and power generation amidst the frigid conditions.

28.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 7.2%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement due to warmer weather forecasts and the return of some frozen wells, easing supply concerns.
• The unexpected rally in prices over the previous sessions led traders to take profits despite ongoing weather-driven supply disruptions, causing a significant pullback in prices.
• The increase in output in the Lower 48 and the recovery of LNG feedgas flows contributed to the market movement, indicating improving supply conditions.
• Despite the price decrease, freezing temperatures across the US continue to impact natural gas production and supply, highlighting the ongoing supply risks in the market.

30.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 14.1%

• Natural gas prices surged by 5.04% to $3.92 per MMBtu, driven by a combination of factors:
• 1. Increased flows to LNG export plants, including the return of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG in Texas, boosting demand and tightening market conditions.
• 2. Despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand, colder than normal conditions expected through mid-February supported consumption expectations.
• 3. The market reacted positively to a larger than expected storage draw, stronger demand outlook, and recovering production levels, highlighting the ongoing tightness in supply despite the rebound in output from frozen wells.
• 4. The volatility in price action was influenced by mixed weather forecasts and the market's sensitivity following a historic weather-driven rally, keeping traders on edge and contributing to the bullish movement in natural gas prices.

30.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was primarily driven by a larger than expected storage draw and a stronger demand outlook, fueled by an Arctic blast that boosted heating demand.
• Colder than normal weather forecasts through mid-February supported consumption expectations, despite some fluctuations in temperature predictions causing uncertainty in demand.
• The return of some frozen wells and the gradual recovery of gas production after storm-related disruptions contributed to easing supply concerns, leading to a slight pullback in prices on days with warmer weather forecasts.
• The market's sensitivity post a historic weather-driven rally, coupled with the tight market conditions despite the modest rebound in supply, kept price action volatile, with traders closely monitoring weather patterns and production levels for further price movements.

02.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 6.6%

• Natural gas prices plunged due to forecasts of milder weather conditions across the US, dampening heating demand and leading to a 14.7% drop to $3.70 per MMBtu.
• The bearish movement was further influenced by the expectation of above-seasonal temperatures, which reduced the need for natural gas as a heating source.
• Despite the recent price drop, the market had been experiencing volatility with conflicting weather forecasts, strong government storage figures, and fluctuations in LNG export flows impacting prices.
• The market movement showcases how sensitive natural gas prices are to weather forecasts and demand outlook, highlighting the importance of monitoring these factors for trading decisions.

02.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 13.4%

• Natural gas futures faced downward pressure due to forecasts of milder weather conditions across the US, resulting in decreased heating demand.
• Anticipated above-normal temperatures are projected to lower the necessity for natural gas in residential heating and power production.
• Despite the market's bearish trend, tight conditions persist as gas flows to LNG export facilities increase and companies import gas to capitalize on higher prices, highlighting ongoing market challenges amidst recovering production levels.