Heating Oil ($HEATOIL) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.4% Today

What is Heating Oil?

Heating Oil is a key commodity used for heating purposes in residential and commercial settings. The market for Heating Oil is influenced by various factors such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and weather conditions.

Why is Heating Oil going up?

HEATOIL commodity is up 5.4% on Apr 9, 2025 21:43

• Heating Oil experienced a strong bullish movement today, rebounding from recent lows.
• The market sentiment was lifted by the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, easing trade tensions and supporting energy markets.
• Additionally, a significant draw in U.S. distillate inventories and expectations of improved demand contributed to the price rally.
• The bearish trend in the previous assessments was driven by concerns over global economic slowdown, trade frictions, and production increases, leading to supply glut worries.

HEATOIL Price Chart

HEATOIL Technical Analysis

HEATOIL News

Heating Oil Rebounds From Mid-2021 Lows

U.S. heating oil futures have rebounded by over 5% to trade above $2.10 per gallon, recovering from the lowest since August 2021 of $2 seen April 8th, aligning with the broad recovery in the energy market. Renewed optimism following President Trump’s decision to suspend reciprocal tariffs for most countries for the next 90 days, a move that has eased trade tensions and reduced pressure on energy markets. Although China remains excluded from the pause—with tariffs on its exports now raised to 125% following its latest retaliatory measures—the broader de-escalation in trade disputes has helped calm concerns. Furthermore, a significant 3.54-million-barrel draw in U.S. distillate inventories has supported prices by signaling a tighter supply, while expectations of improved demand have further bolstered the rebound.

Heating Oil Hits August 2021 Lows

U.S. heating oil futures dropped below $2 per gallon, the lowest since August 2021, as crude oil feedstock costs continue to decline amid growing concerns over a global economic slowdown spurred by escalated trade frictions. President Trump’s imposition of a 104% tariff on a broad range of Chinese imports triggered swift retaliation, with China enforcing an 84% duty on U.S. goods starting April 10th, while the European Union approved countermeasures targeting roughly €21 billion ($23.2 billion) worth of American products. Simultaneously, OPEC+ ramped up oil production more aggressively than anticipated, deepening concerns over an impending supply glut. Against this backdrop, the latest EIA data showed U.S. distillate inventories plunging by 3.54 million barrels—well below expectations for a modest build—partially tempering the bearish tone as unseasonably mild weather continues to weigh on heating oil demand.

Heating Oil Hits 3-year Low

Heating Oil decreased to a 3-year low of 2.04 USD/Gal. Over the past 4 weeks, Heating Oil lost 7.22%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 25.11%.

Heating Oil Drops to Multi-Month Lows

U.S. heating oil futures slipped below $2.10 per gallon in April—the lowest since September—as crude oil feeedstock costs plunged amid expectations of robust supply and tepid demand. Following an unexpected OPEC+ production boost of 411,000 barrels per day—well above planned increases—while U.S. crude inventories surged by 6.2 million barrels, defying forecasts of a 2-million-barrel draw and underscoring abundant supply. Although oil, gas, and refined products remain exempt from recent U.S. tariffs, ongoing trade disputes—intensified by China’s planned 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting April 10th—continue to exert pressure on global markets and may dampen overall energy demand. Seasonally, milder temperatures are reducing heating oil consumption in both residential and commercial sectors, while the latest EIA report revealed a 264,000-barrel build in distillate stockpiles last week, contrary to expectations of a 1.1-million-barrel draw.

Heating Oil is down by 5.01%

Heating Oil decreased 5.01% to 2.0708 USD/Gal

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Heating Oil Price History

31.02.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 1.9%

• The recent bearish movement in Heating Oil can be attributed to the surge in feedstock costs, driven by tightening global supply and increased input costs for refineries.
• The drawdown in inventories and rising feedstock costs have led to a rebound in heating oil futures, pushing prices above $2.3 per gallon.
• The tariffs imposed on Canadian crude have further contributed to the elevated feedstock costs, impacting the overall market sentiment and leading to the bearish movement in Heating Oil today.

02.09.2024 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Heating Oil today can be attributed to the surge in oil prices driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the threat of a ballistic missile attack by Iran on US ally Israel, which raised concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• Additionally, the decline in crude and distillate stockpiles as indicated by the latest EIA data further supported the bullish momentum in Heating Oil prices, pointing towards a tightening supply situation in the market.
• The broader recovery in oil benchmarks, influenced by China's stimulus measures boosting demand projections and supply concerns due to hurricane threats in the US Gulf, also contributed to the rebound in Heating Oil prices, illustrating the interconnected nature of global energy markets.

04.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.3%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil today can be attributed to:
• OPEC+ unexpectedly raising production by 411,000 barrels per day, leading to an oversupply of crude oil and subsequently pushing down heating oil prices.
• Trump's 10% tariff on all U.S. imports heightening recession fears, which could potentially weaken industrial activity and consumer spending, dampening overall energy demand.
• Seasonal factors such as the transition to milder temperatures reducing heating needs, resulting in a decline in consumption and putting downward pressure on prices.
• The combination of ample supply, subdued demand, and fears of weaker economic activity due to tariffs and oversupply have contributed to the bearish movement in Heating Oil today.
• Despite the recent bearish trend, the market remains sensitive to geopolitical events, trade tensions, and seasonal fluctuations, which could continue to impact Heating Oil prices in the near term.

03.09.2024 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, have intensified, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply routes.
• The threat of a full-scale conflict in the region has led to a surge in oil prices, with heating oil tracking the upward movement of crude oil.
• The latest report, indicating declines in heating oil and distillate stockpiles, provided additional support to the bullish market movement of heating oil.

04.01.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 0.8%

• The postponement of U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico has resulted in a decrease in heating oil prices. Concerns regarding supply disruptions have lessened, making crude oil feedstocks more cost-effective.
• Warmer-than-usual temperatures in key regions that consume heating oil have lowered demand, easing concerns of shortages during winter and contributing to the price drop.
• Despite a notable decrease in distillate inventories temporarily slowing the decline in heating oil prices, continual pressure remains due to milder winter conditions than anticipated. This pressure is further fueled by dropping crude oil prices triggered by increasing U.S. inventories and upcoming tariffs.

15.09.2024 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.0%

• Decrease in Heating Oil prices is linked to reduced oil supply concerns, with OPEC's spare capacity and steady global crude supplies easing supply fears.
• Weakened demand from China, the top global importer, following discouraging updates from the National Development and Reform Commission, has added to the price decline.
• Market volatility and price decline have been fueled by uncertainty over potential Israel-Iran retaliation, especially targeting Iranian oil sites.
• President Biden's warning against attacking Iranian oil facilities and endorsing alternative strategies has impacted market sentiment and influenced the bearish trend in Heating Oil prices.

10.00.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

• The rise in Heating Oil prices can be ascribed to multiple factors:
• Reduced supply in the U.S. and diminished Russian seaborne exports led to a supply-demand gap, pushing prices up.
• Cold weather amplified heating demand, adding to the upward trend in prices.
• Despite worries about soft Chinese demand and a firmer U.S. dollar, the effects on prices were outweighed by supply limitations and weather conditions.
• The decrease in prices from the three-month peak can be linked to indications of sufficient supply and a strengthening U.S. dollar, reducing the appeal of the commodity to holders of other currencies.

10.00.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.1%

• The surge in heating oil prices was primarily fueled by tightening supply conditions, with U.S. crude inventories falling for the seventh consecutive week and Russian seaborne exports reaching their lowest levels in months.
• Geopolitical tensions, such as the possibility of new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, added to market concerns and contributed to the bullish momentum.
• Cold weather increased heating demand, further supporting the price rally, despite worries over weak Chinese demand and a stronger U.S. dollar putting pressure on international buyers.
• The market movement also reflected a delicate balance between supply dynamics and external factors, highlighting the interplay of geopolitical events, weather patterns, and economic indicators in shaping commodity prices.

03.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.9%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil today can be attributed to the combination of factors such as:
• Changes in production levels by OPEC+ leading to an increase in crude oil supply and lower feedstock costs.
• Implementation of tariffs on U.S. imports impacting industrial activity and consumer spending, heightening recession fears and thereby reducing energy demand.
• Seasonal transitions to milder temperatures decreasing the need for heating oil and resulting in subdued demand.
• An unexpected build in distillate stockpiles and heating oil inventories, contrary to expectations, indicating plentiful supply and weakening demand dynamics.

03.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.0%

• Heating Oil experienced a bearish movement due to:
• Seasonal reductions in heating demand across key regions like Europe and North America, leading to lower consumption and easing pressure on storage facilities.
• Warmer-than-normal conditions expected through mid-April, further suppressing demand.
• Contrary to forecasted draws, there was a build in distillate stockpiles and an increase in heating oil inventories, signaling subdued demand.
• Despite trade tensions and higher crude prices, the natural seasonal drawdown in heating demand and efficient stock replenishment strategies kept prices modest.

09.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.4%

• Heating Oil experienced a strong bullish movement today, rebounding from recent lows.
• The market sentiment was lifted by the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, easing trade tensions and supporting energy markets.
• Additionally, a significant draw in U.S. distillate inventories and expectations of improved demand contributed to the price rally.
• The bearish trend in the previous assessments was driven by concerns over global economic slowdown, trade frictions, and production increases, leading to supply glut worries.

09.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.0%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil can be attributed to several key factors:
• OPEC+ decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day, leading to oversupply concerns and downward pressure on oil prices.
• Rising U.S. crude inventories by 6.2 million barrels, well above expectations, signaling ample supply in the market.
• Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with China imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. goods, contributing to fears of reduced energy demand.
• Seasonal factors such as milder temperatures reducing the need for heating oil, coupled with a build in distillate stockpiles, further dampening market sentiment.