Heating Oil ($HEATOIL) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.0% Today

What is Heating Oil?

Heating Oil is a crucial commodity used for heating purposes, especially during colder seasons. The market for Heating Oil is heavily influenced by global supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.

Why is Heating Oil going down?

HEATOIL commodity is down 5.0% on May 13, 2026 18:42

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to the slight ease in stock levels in the US, contrasting with expectations of a draw.
• The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the tensions between the US and Iran, has led to disruptions in energy exports, impacting the supply chain and driving prices.
• The shift in refinery operations towards diesel and jet fuel due to the shortages in global transportation hubs might have also contributed to the downward pressure on Heating Oil prices.
• The above-normal temperature forecasts in the US could have potentially reduced near-term heating demand, adding to the bearish sentiment in the Heating Oil market.

HEATOIL Price Chart

HEATOIL Technical Analysis

HEATOIL News

Heating Oil Eases from 6-Week High

Heating oil futures for delivery at the New York Harbor eased to $4.05 per gallon from the six-week high of $4.16, as some respite in stock levels momentarily weighed against tight supply across the globe. Data from the EIA showed that stocks of distillate fuel in the US inched higher by 200 thousand barrels in the first week of May, contrasting with bets of a 2.8 million draw. The data also contrasted with a 4.1 million barrel draw for gasoline, indicating that refineries opted to concentrate capacity in diesel and jet fuel due to the shortages in global transportation hubs. Still, supply remained tight as the escalatory remarks between the US and Iran prolonged expectations of the suspension in energy exports from the Middle East. The export of distilled products from the region t has been all but halted since the start of the war in March, stressing refineries and driving the price of heating oil futures to a record high of $4.6 in March.

Heating Oil Hovers Near 5-Week High

Heating oil futures for delivery at New York Harbor slipped to around $4.10 per gallon but held most of their recent gains near a five-week high, as the Middle East conflict continues without a clear resolution, prolonging disruptions to regional energy supply. US President Donald Trump has rejected Tehran’s latest response to a proposed peace framework, keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut. Maritime transit through the key passageway has been halted since early March, disrupting nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined product exports to major importing countries. In response, refineries across Europe and Asia have shifted output toward diesel and jet fuel at the expense of gasoline. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service forecasts a high likelihood that most of the US will experience above-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days, potentially curbing near-term heating demand.

Heating Oil Extends Advance

Heating oil futures for delivery at the New York Harbor rose above $4.00 per gallon, extending their advance for a third consecutive session, as intensifying Middle East tensions stoked concerns over deeper energy supply disruptions in the region. US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict, leaving the crucial Strait of Hormuz effectively shut. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cautioned that the conflict with Iran was “not over,” raising fears of further military escalation. Oil and refined fuel flows through the Strait have been heavily disrupted since March, straining refineries and pushing heating oil futures to a record $4.60. In response, refineries across Europe and Asia have shifted output toward diesel and jet fuel at the expense of gasoline. Despite this, fuel shortages have forced major European airlines to cancel thousands of flights, while tighter supplies in Asia have prompted China to resume diesel exports.

Heating Oil Futures Rebound

Heating oil futures for delivery at the New York Harbor climbed toward $4.0 per gallon, extending their rebound from a two-week low, as renewed attacks in the Middle East reinforced concerns over deeper energy disruptions in the region. The US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides accusing the other of initiating the confrontation, putting a month-long ceasefire in doubt. Oil and refined fuel shipments through the Strait have been severely disrupted since the war began in March, putting pressure on refineries and pushing heating oil futures to a record high of $4.6 in March. In response, refineries across Europe and Asia have adjusted operations to produce more diesel and jet fuel at the expense of gasoline output. Even so, fuel shortages forced major European airlines to cancel thousands of flights, while tightening supplies in Asia prompted China to resume diesel exports.

Heating Oil is down by 5.06%

Heating Oil decreased 5.06% to 3.5942 USD/Gal

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Heating Oil Price History

13.04.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.0%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to the slight ease in stock levels in the US, contrasting with expectations of a draw.
• The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the tensions between the US and Iran, has led to disruptions in energy exports, impacting the supply chain and driving prices.
• The shift in refinery operations towards diesel and jet fuel due to the shortages in global transportation hubs might have also contributed to the downward pressure on Heating Oil prices.
• The above-normal temperature forecasts in the US could have potentially reduced near-term heating demand, adding to the bearish sentiment in the Heating Oil market.

29.03.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.3%

• Heating Oil prices surged to a two-week high due to ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly in the wake of heightened tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Directive to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran and the subsequent naval standoff have significantly constrained feedstock availability for refiners, leading to a spike in prices.
• The continuous strain on the ceasefire and disruptions in the vital Strait of Hormuz, responsible for a significant portion of global oil trade, have further exacerbated supply concerns, pushing Heating Oil prices higher.
• The substantial drawdown in distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, also contributed to the bullish momentum, indicating tightening supply conditions in the market.

12.04.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.2%

• Heating Oil futures surged above $4.00 per gallon due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the US and Iran in the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
• The bullish movement was further fueled by concerns over energy supply disruptions, leading to refineries shifting output towards diesel and jet fuel, causing shortages in gasoline and impacting major airlines.
• The market reacted strongly to news of renewed attacks in the Middle East, with the potential for deeper disruptions, pushing Heating Oil futures to record highs.
• However, a sudden decline in Heating Oil prices by 5.06% was observed, attributed to indications of a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran, which could normalize energy exports from the region and alleviate supply concerns.

22.03.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.2%

• Heating oil prices surged over 7% to above $3.60 per barrel, recovering from recent lows, as geopolitical tensions in the Gulf of Oman heightened and raised supply concerns.
• The US–Iran negotiations standstill and uncertainties about future talks, alongside the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, contributed to the bullish sentiment in the heating oil market.
• The potential for increased demand destruction due to the conflict and warmer-than-normal temperatures forecasted through April 30 added further support to the price rally in heating oil futures.
• Geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and demand outlooks collectively fueled the significant bullish movement in heating oil prices today.

21.03.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.2%

• Heating Oil experienced a strong bullish movement today, with prices surging over 7% to above $3.60 per gallon, driven by renewed Middle East tensions and a rebound in crude oil prices.
• The market movement can be attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a rebound in crude oil prices.
• Additionally, the rebound in Heating Oil prices from a recent 5-week low was supported by larger-than-expected draw in inventories, providing further bullish momentum to the commodity.
• Looking ahead, continued geopolitical uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics in the oil market are likely to influence the future price movements of Heating Oil.

21.03.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.4%

• Today's rise in Heating Oil prices is linked to the uncertain US-Iran negotiations, creating instability in energy markets.
• Recent escalations in the Middle East, such as incidents in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, have amplified Heating Oil futures.
• Forecasts of above-average temperatures until April 30 may have lowered expectations for cooling demand, prompting investors to look at opportunities in the heating oil sector.
• The surge in Heating Oil prices is driven by a mix of geopolitical uncertainties and weather projections, highlighting the interconnectedness of global events and commodity markets.

23.03.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

• Heating oil prices surged above $3.90 per barrel, hitting a two-week high, driven by tightening supply conditions for refiners amidst the prolonged Middle East conflict and the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.
• The escalating tensions in the Middle East, including naval blockades, intercepted ships, and reduced oil flows from major Persian Gulf producers, have contributed to the bullish movement in heating oil prices.
• Additionally, the decline in distillate stocks, warmer-than-normal temperatures forecasted through April 30 potentially reducing heating and cooling demand, and the rebound in crude oil prices amid renewed Middle East tensions have all played a role in the significant price increase of heating oil futures.

30.03.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.1%

• The spike in heating oil prices can be attributed to escalating supply disruptions in the Middle East, especially in light of the US-Iran tensions and constraints in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The strain on refiners' feedstock availability and rumors of a potential continuous blockade of Iran, reportedly orchestrated by President Trump, have heightened market apprehensions, fueling the bullish sentiment.
• Despite the positive trend, warmer-than-average seasonal temperatures pose a potential challenge by reducing heating demand as the US enters into the warmer months.
• The consecutive decrease in distillate inventories, encompassing diesel and heating oil, as indicated by both EIA and API data, has further bolstered the bullish outlook, signaling a tightening supply-demand equilibrium in the market.

17.03.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 15.8%

• Heating Oil prices plunged nearly 15% to $3.3 per gallon, following a decline in crude oil benchmarks after Iranian officials announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels. This move raised expectations of increased supply of crude oil and refined products, impacting the price of Heating Oil negatively.
• The rebound in Heating Oil futures from a five-week low of $3.624 to above $3.81 per gallon was supported by a larger-than-expected draw in inventories, as distillate stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels. Additionally, growing optimism over potential Middle East peace talks and warmer-than-normal temperature forecasts contributed to the price recovery.
• Despite a 5% increase in Heating Oil prices to $3.8055 per gallon, the market faced pressure as reports indicated progress in diplomatic talks between the US and Iran, potentially leading to a resolution in the Middle East conflict. This uncertainty led to the commodity hitting a five-week low around $3.60 per gallon.
• The fall in Heating Oil futures below $3.80 per gallon was attributed to revived ceasefire talks between the US and Iran, with prospects of a deal depending on Tehran's response to US nuclear conditions. The ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports and disruptions in Gulf Arab output added to market concerns, contributing to the downward movement in prices.

06.04.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.3%

• The bearish movement in heating oil futures today may be due to the potential US-Iran peace agreement and a temporary pause in military operations in the Strait of Hormuz, reducing geopolitical tensions and increasing supply security perceptions.
• Warmer weather forecasts for the upcoming summer cooling season may have also played a role in the bearish movement, signaling a potential decrease in heating demand.
• The retreat in heating oil prices may also be tied to the reassessment of US-led maritime security measures in the Strait of Hormuz, which could have alleviated concerns about supply disruptions and shipping risks in the region.
• Overall, today's bearish movement in heating oil reflects geopolitical developments, seasonal weather patterns, and market assessments concerning supply security and demand dynamics.

06.04.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 8.4%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to the signs of a potential agreement between the US and Iran, which could normalize energy exports from the Middle East.
• President Donald Trump's statements regarding a temporary pause in escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing US-Iran peace talks have contributed to the decline in Heating Oil futures.
• Reports of above-normal temperatures in the US, indicating a transition towards the summer cooling season, might have also dampened demand expectations for heating oil, further pressuring prices downward.
• The market sentiment seems to be reacting to the potential easing of geopolitical tensions and the anticipation of increased supply, leading to the bearish movement in Heating Oil prices.

08.04.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.3%

• The increase in Heating Oil price today can be attributed to recent attacks in the Middle East, notably concerning the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, which have elicited concerns about energy disruptions in the area.
• The rising tensions and potential interruptions in oil and refined fuel transport via the Strait have spurred a surge in demand for heating oil futures, resulting in price hikes.
• The market's behavior also illustrates the impact of geopolitical uncertainties on the energy sector, with investors turning to safe-haven assets like heating oil amidst the volatile Middle Eastern situation.
• Overall, today's upward trend in Heating Oil underscores energy markets' sensitivity to geopolitical occurrences and supply chain interruptions, underscoring the significance of monitoring global events when making trading decisions.