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Heating Oil ($HEATOIL) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.0% Today

Morpher AI identified a bullish signal. The commodity price may continue to rise based on the momentum of the good news.

What is Heating Oil?

Heating Oil is an essential commodity for heating needs, particularly in colder months. The market showed significant bullish momentum today.

Why is Heating Oil going up?

HEATOIL commodity is up 5.0% on Feb 18, 2026 17:56

  • Distillate inventories saw a noticeable decline, but lower crude prices and forecasts of milder temperatures in key heating areas have caused a decline in heating oil futures.
  • Rising drilling operations and decreased natural gas prices are prompting a shift away from fuel oil, adding further downward pressure on heating oil prices.
  • Rumors of a substantial build-up in crude stocks and worries about global supply surpassing demand towards the year-end are influencing the bearish outlook in the heating oil market.

HEATOIL Price Chart

HEATOIL Technical Analysis

HEATOIL News

Heating Oil Eases

US heating oil futures slipped toward $2.42 per gallon after failing to sustain gains, as easing crude feedstock costs and softer near-term demand outweighed an otherwise tight distillate balance. Although recent EIA data showed a sizable 5.6 million barrel draw in distillate inventories, underscoring that stocks remain relatively constrained for this stage of the season, falling crude prices have reduced refiners’ input costs and removed a key source of price support. Elevated refinery runs continue to maintain steady product flows, limiting fears of acute supply shortages. On the demand side, milder temperature forecasts across major US heating regions are curbing expected heating consumption, while weaker natural gas prices and increased drilling activity are encouraging substitution away from fuel oil. Additional pressure stems from reports of a large crude stock build and broader signals from OPEC and the IEA that global supply could outpace demand later this year.

0 Missing News Article Image Heating Oil Eases

Heating Oil Price History

19.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.7%

  • Heating Oil prices surged to a 19-month high of $2.71 per gallon, driven by supply worries and robust demand as winter approaches.
  • Geopolitical tensions and supply risks in the crude oil market, including Russian sanctions and disruptions, contributed to the bullish sentiment.
  • Despite a slight drop in prices following a smaller-than-expected draw in distillate inventories, the overall market remains bullish due to ongoing supply constraints and the tightening distillate complex.
  • The market is closely monitoring global oil demand forecasts, supply dynamics, and geopolitical developments to gauge the future trajectory of Heating Oil prices.

20.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.1%

  • Heating Oil experienced a bearish movement today due to a combination of factors:
  • An unexpected distillate build of 171 thousand barrels tempered immediate physical tightness, easing the upside potential for Heating Oil prices.
  • Crude feedstock costs softened as crude prices fell amid signals of potential diplomatic resolutions to a conflict, reducing the geopolitical risk premium.
  • Forecasts of a possible global surplus next year by an organization and rising global inventories weighed on crude fundamentals, indirectly impacting Heating Oil prices.
  • Colder weather forecasts for late November and early December revived heating demand, but the market is now balancing softer crude fundamentals against genuine product tightness, with weather likely to dictate the next market move.

18.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

  • The bullish movement in heating oil prices can be attributed to supply risks in the crude feedstock complex, which lifted oil benchmarks and offset concerns about a global surplus.
  • Recent events such as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian ports, staff cuts at Lukoil, and reduced purchases of Russian crude by India and China have tightened near-term seaborne flows, contributing to the bullish sentiment.
  • However, the market remains cautious as forecasts of rising global inventories and a potential supply glut in the oil market could pose challenges in the future, balancing the current bullish outlook for heating oil.

18.01.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

  • Distillate inventories saw a noticeable decline, but lower crude prices and forecasts of milder temperatures in key heating areas have caused a decline in heating oil futures.
  • Rising drilling operations and decreased natural gas prices are prompting a shift away from fuel oil, adding further downward pressure on heating oil prices.
  • Rumors of a substantial build-up in crude stocks and worries about global supply surpassing demand towards the year-end are influencing the bearish outlook in the heating oil market.

28.00.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.0%

  • Heating Oil prices surged to more than a 2-month peak as a significant winter storm in the US elevated energy usage, leading to supply constraints and heightened demand for heating fuel.
  • The climb in heating oil prices was further propelled by higher crude feedstock expenses, geopolitical instabilities in the Middle East, and a depreciation in the US dollar, collectively contributing to the upward trend in the market.
  • Projections of warmer weather starting from the initial week of February might moderate the recent upturn in heating oil prices as an expected reduction in heating demand could alleviate the upward pressure on prices.
  • The amalgamation of extreme weather conditions, supply limitations, geopolitical uncertainties, and currency fluctuations all had a role in propelling Heating Oil to its peak levels in recent months.

23.09.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.2%

  • Heating Oil futures experienced a strong bullish movement today, reaching a three-week high of $2.32 per gallon. This surge can be attributed to several factors:
  • New sanctions on Russia's top oil producers tightened global supply expectations, boosting prices.
  • Weather forecasts shifting towards seasonally normal conditions signaled rising heating demand.
  • The report of distillate fuel oil stocks staying below average, along with significant stock draws earlier this year, added to the bullish sentiment.
  • The rebound in Heating Oil prices also reflects a tight distillate complex meeting a firmer crude backdrop and an improved seasonal demand outlook.
  • Despite the recent bearish trend with Heating Oil hitting a four-month low and an 18-week low, today's bullish movement indicates a shift in market sentiment driven by a combination of geopolitical events, weather forecasts, and supply-demand dynamics.

23.09.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.1%

  • The bullish movement in Heating Oil prices was primarily driven by a sharp draw in distillate inventories and the onset of winter demand, despite weak crude feedstock costs.
  • The tightening supply of heating fuels, along with expectations of higher heating demand due to cooler weather conditions, contributed to the rebound in Heating Oil prices.
  • The market movement was also supported by a significant decrease in distillate stocks, indicating a tighter distillate complex.
  • Despite concerns about weak demand and global supply pressures on crude oil, Heating Oil outperformed other oil benchmarks due to the favorable inventory data and seasonal demand outlook.

28.00.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

  • Heating Oil prices surged to a 9-week high of $2.58 per gallon, driven by a massive winter storm increasing demand for heating fuel.
  • The Arctic blast sweeping across the US intensified energy consumption, tightening near-term product availability and supporting higher prices.
  • Geopolitical risks, including President Trump's warning of possible military action against Iran, and supply concerns in Kazakhstan contributed to the bullish movement.
  • Despite a slight drop after the EIA report, Heating Oil remains supported by tightening seasonal demand and supply disruptions, maintaining its bullish momentum.

14.00.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 2.3%

  • Heating oil prices surged to a one-month high due to renewed geopolitical risks and tighter US crude balances, reflecting concerns over unrest in Iran and uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan supply.
  • Despite the recent rebound from seven-month lows, heating oil remains under pressure from ample supply and warmer-than-normal temperatures across the eastern US, which are suppressing seasonal demand.
  • The sharp recovery in crude benchmarks and the larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories contributed to the recent price increase, indicating a delicate balance between supply dynamics and geopolitical factors influencing the market movement.

30.00.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.1%

  • The recent bullish movement in heating oil prices can be attributed to a surge in heating demand driven by intense winter storms across the US, tightening supply conditions in the refined products market, and disruptions in crude oil production and exports.
  • Despite the rally, the market saw a pullback as peak winter demand was reassessed, milder temperatures were forecasted, and unexpected increases in distillate inventories were reported, leading to profit-taking by traders.
  • The overall bullish sentiment in the heating oil market remains supported by factors like prior cold-driven demand, refinery outages, increased fuel oil use for power generation due to high natural gas prices, and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
  • Moving forward, the durability of the recent rally in heating oil prices may be tempered by expectations of reduced heating demand as temperatures normalize and NOAA outlooks point to milder conditions in the coming weeks.

30.00.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.1%

  • Heating Oil futures fell more than 4% today, pulling back from a recent rally, as markets assessed that the peak US cold has passed and inventories unexpectedly increased.
  • The bearish movement can be attributed to a combination of factors including a warmer weather outlook, higher-than-expected inventory levels, and a temporary disruption in Gulf Coast exports due to severe weather conditions.
  • Despite the recent pullback, Heating Oil futures had been on an upward trend, supported by earlier cold-driven demand, refinery disruptions, and increased fuel oil use for power generation.
  • The recent decline in prices could also be influenced by the milder temperatures expected in the coming weeks, which may reduce heating demand and impact the durability of the recent rally.

21.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 6.2%

  • The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to:
  • A surprise build in distillate inventories, breaking a streak of heavy draws and easing immediate physical tightness.
  • Falling crude prices due to diplomatic signals indicating a potential peace talks scenario between two countries, which could lead to higher oil exports and alleviate oversupply concerns.
  • Rising US crude stocks and forecasts of a possible global surplus next year, softening forward pricing and weighing on crude feedstock costs support.
  • The market balancing softer crude fundamentals against genuine product tightness, with colder weather forecasts driving buying but also concerns about global inventories and supply glut in the longer term.
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Morpher is not liable for the content of the AI investment insights. Like most GPT-powered tools, these summaries may contain AI hallucinations and inaccurate information. Morpher is not presenting you with any investment advice. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. These summaries do not constitute investment advice.