Heating Oil ($HEATOIL) Commodity Forecast: Down 9.6% Today

What is Heating Oil?

Heating oil futures experienced a strong bearish movement today, dropping from recent highs due to various factors affecting the energy markets.

Why is Heating Oil going down?

HEATOIL commodity is down 9.6% on Jun 24, 2025 9:41

• The ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran reduced fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, leading to a drop in crude oil prices and subsequently pressuring heating oil futures.
• Refining margins narrowed due to ample inventories and softening summer demand, while cooler-than-expected temperatures in key northeastern US markets further limited near-term consumption of heating oil.
• Despite threats of potential disruptions in the Persian Gulf, the continued transit of oil tankers and rising Iranian oil exports contributed to the downward pressure on heating oil prices.
• Forecasts of a major US heat wave and high demand for refined fuel products like diesel and marine fuel could tighten the market, but the current geopolitical situation and supply dynamics are keeping speculative interest high and preventing a significant decline in heating oil prices.

HEATOIL Price Chart

HEATOIL Technical Analysis

HEATOIL News

Heating Oil Futures Move Away from 5-Month Highs

Heating oil futures extended losses below $2.30 per gallon, falling further from the five-month high of $2.60 seen on June 19th, dragged down by collapsing crude benchmarks and easing geopolitical fears that had previously propped up energy markets. The drop followed President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which both countries appear to have accepted, reducing fears of supply disruptions. Still, the truce remains fragile, with Israel accusing Iran of already breaching the deal. This sharp retracement in crude prices directly pressured heating oil, which is refined from the same feedstock. At the same time, refining margins narrowed amid ample inventories and softening summer demand, while forecasts for cooler-than-expected temperatures in key northeastern US markets further capped near-term consumption.

Heating Oil Plunges

Heating oil futures plunged to around $2.32 per gallon, easing from a five-month high of $2.60 seen June 19th, dragged down by collapsing crude benchmarks and easing geopolitical fears that had previously propped up energy markets. The plunge in crude oil feedstock costs, triggered by Iran’s limited and casualty-free missile response to US strikes, undermined expectations of supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Despite threats from Iran’s parliament to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil tankers continued to transit uninterrupted, dousing concerns over global energy flows. This sharp retracement in crude prices directly pressured heating oil, which is refined from the same feedstock. At the same time, refining margins narrowed amid ample inventories and softening summer demand, while forecasts for cooler-than-expected temperatures in key northeastern US markets further capped near-term consumption.

Heating Oil Futures Fall from 5-Month High

Heating oil futures declined to $2.53 per gallon, easing from a five-month high of $2.60, as fears of major Middle East supply disruptions faded. Although the US struck Iranian nuclear facilities and Israel escalated attacks, no immediate impact on physical oil flows has been observed. The Strait of Hormuz — through which a third of global crude flows — remains open, and Iranian oil exports have even risen since the conflict intensified. Still, markets remain on edge as traders await Tehran’s response, with Iranian leaders vowing “everlasting consequences.” Meanwhile, US crude inventories dropped by 11.5 million barrels last week, the biggest draw in a year, as refiners operated at near-full capacity to meet high demand for diesel, marine fuel, and summer-grade products. Forecasts of a major US heat wave, with soaring power demand for air conditioning, are also expected to further tighten the refined fuel market.

US Heating Oil Futures Join Energy Rally

Heating oil futures climbed above $2.55 per gallon, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and strong fuel demand. Traders are closely watching for Tehran’s reaction after the US struck Iranian nuclear sites, raising fears of potential disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a key conduit for global crude and natural gas. While Iran has yet to take action, its leaders have promised “everlasting consequences” as Israel continues targeting Iranian military sites. Adding to the bullish momentum, US crude inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels in the week ended June 13, the largest draw in a year, as refiners operated near capacity to meet rising demand for diesel, marine fuel, and summer blends. Meanwhile, forecasts of an intense US heat wave are stoking expectations of record power demand, further tightening the refined fuel market.

Heating Oil Drops

Heating oil futures eased toward $2.55 per gallon, down from a five-month high of $2.60 seen June 19th, after President Trump’s announcement that he will defer any US intervention in the Israel–Iran conflict for up to two weeks defused the immediacy of a Middle East supply shock. Nevertheless, underlying fundamentals remain firmly supportive. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures, which mirror heating oil’s distillate feedstock, remain elevated on fears that strikes in Tehran could choke Hormuz flows and curb Gulf exports, while US crude stocks plunged 11.5 million barrels in the week to June 13th—the largest draw in a year—and refiners ran near capacity to meet diesel, marine-fuel and summer-blend demand, leaving scant spare product. War-risk surcharges on tanker freight and insurance, coupled with high feedstock costs and the threat of further escalation, sustain speculative interest and limit any further decline in heating oil prices.

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Heating Oil Price History

30.04.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 2.7%

• Heating Oil futures fell to a 3-week low of $2.05 per gallon due to expectations of ample crude oil availability, reducing feedstock costs for distillate fuel producers.
• OPEC+ members are anticipated to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, despite uncertainties in the economic landscape and weakened Chinese demand affecting oil consumption.
• Although distillate fuel stocks unexpectedly decreased, distillate fuel production saw a consecutive weekly rise, contributing to the bearish movement in Heating Oil prices.

30.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.4%

• 1. The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices can be attributed to the overall downward pressure from falling feedstock costs amidst uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.
• 2. The potential for oversupply in the market, exacerbated by hints of increased output from OPEC+ members and defiance of production rules by countries like Kazakhstan, has further weighed on prices.
• 3. The looming possibility of additional Iranian oil entering the market due to potential easing of nuclear sanctions adds to the bearish sentiment, as reflected in the sharp decline in Heating Oil futures.

24.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 9.6%

• The ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran reduced fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, leading to a drop in crude oil prices and subsequently pressuring heating oil futures.
• Refining margins narrowed due to ample inventories and softening summer demand, while cooler-than-expected temperatures in key northeastern US markets further limited near-term consumption of heating oil.
• Despite threats of potential disruptions in the Persian Gulf, the continued transit of oil tankers and rising Iranian oil exports contributed to the downward pressure on heating oil prices.
• Forecasts of a major US heat wave and high demand for refined fuel products like diesel and marine fuel could tighten the market, but the current geopolitical situation and supply dynamics are keeping speculative interest high and preventing a significant decline in heating oil prices.

13.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 2.7%

• Heating Oil prices reached a 10-week peak of $2.20 per gallon driven by limited crude supplies, reduced trade tensions, and robust seasonal demand outlook.
• Uncertainty arose in the market due to President Trump's statements on tariffs and trade discussions with China, impacting energy product demand.
• Despite the price surge, growth in distillate and heating oil inventories moderated it, suggesting some downward pressure on prices amid an overall positive market sentiment.
• The bullish trend in Heating Oil is mainly due to supply constraints, trade dynamics, and seasonal demand, albeit partially offset by inventory builds.

13.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.9%

• Heating oil prices surged to multi-month highs as Middle East tensions escalated, leading to concerns about potential supply disruptions and increased demand for the commodity.
• Conversely, prices retreated from recent highs amid trade uncertainties and ample distillate inventories, dampening market sentiment and putting downward pressure on prices.
• A combination of tightening crude supplies, easing trade frictions, and strong seasonal demand expectations pushed prices to a 10-month high, despite the surge in distillate inventories tempering the rally.
• Overall, the bullish movement in heating oil prices today can be attributed to a mix of geopolitical events, trade developments, supply dynamics, and seasonal demand outlook, showcasing the complexity of factors influencing commodity markets.

17.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

• Heating oil futures reached a 10-month high of around $2.20 per gallon due to tightening crude supplies, easing trade frictions, and firm seasonal demand expectations.
• Optimism in geopolitical relations, particularly between the US and China, contributed to hopes for increased global oil consumption.
• However, despite the bullish movement, swelling distillate inventories and a significant build in heating oil stocks hinted at potential downward pressure on prices in the near future.

17.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.7%

• Today's bullish movement in heating oil prices was driven by escalating Middle East tensions, with geopolitical unrest causing concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• The unexpected increase in distillate inventories, including a significant rise in heating oil stocks, added downward pressure on prices despite the geopolitical uncertainty, as ample supply levels weighed on the market sentiment.
• The warmer-than-usual weather forecast leading to reduced heating oil demand also contributed to the pullback in prices.
• Overall, the combination of geopolitical tensions, supply build-up, and demand outlooks influenced today's market movement in heating oil, highlighting the complex interplay of factors shaping commodity prices.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 13.4%

• Today, heating oil experienced a strong bearish movement, dropping from a recent high of $2.60 per gallon.
• The bearish trend in heating oil prices can be attributed to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the US and Iran, which has reduced fears of supply disruptions in the region.
• Additionally, ample inventories, softening summer demand, and forecasts of cooler temperatures in key northeastern US markets have also contributed to the downward pressure on heating oil prices.
• The overall market sentiment seems to have shifted towards a more relaxed stance, with traders focusing on factors such as supply levels, demand outlook, and geopolitical developments to gauge future price movements in the heating oil market.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 9.8%

• Despite tensions escalating in the Middle East, especially involving the US, Israel, and Iran, immediate supply disruptions have not occurred, easing worries of a significant oil shortage and leading to a decrease in heating oil prices.
• The reduction in US crude inventories, alongside a strong demand for diesel, marine fuel, and summer-grade products, has helped heating oil prices. However, this has not fully balanced the overall market sentiment.
• President Trump's announcement of postponing US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict has eased concerns temporarily, contributing to the decline in heating oil futures.
• The increase in heating oil prices to a 14-month peak was mainly caused by a squeeze in distillate supplies, growing costs of crude-oil feedstock, and increasing geopolitical risks, indicating the volatile nature of the commodity market.

09.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.4%

• Heating Oil experienced a strong bullish movement today, rebounding from recent lows.
• The market sentiment was lifted by the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, easing trade tensions and supporting energy markets.
• Additionally, a significant draw in U.S. distillate inventories and expectations of improved demand contributed to the price rally.
• The bearish trend in the previous assessments was driven by concerns over global economic slowdown, trade frictions, and production increases, leading to supply glut worries.

09.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.0%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil can be attributed to several key factors:
• OPEC+ decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day, leading to oversupply concerns and downward pressure on oil prices.
• Rising U.S. crude inventories by 6.2 million barrels, well above expectations, signaling ample supply in the market.
• Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with China imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. goods, contributing to fears of reduced energy demand.
• Seasonal factors such as milder temperatures reducing the need for heating oil, coupled with a build in distillate stockpiles, further dampening market sentiment.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 6.0%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to recent geopolitical developments easing concerns of an immediate supply shock in the Middle East.
• Despite the pullback, underlying fundamentals remain supportive due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and fears of disruptions in crude oil flows.
• The slight easing in prices also reflects seasonally soft summer heating demand and ample global supply, acting as limiting factors on further price increases.
• Overall, the market sentiment for Heating Oil remains cautious, with ongoing geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics playing a significant role in price movements.