Crude Oil ($CRUDE) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.0% Today

What is Crude Oil?

Crude Oil is a key commodity in the global market, with its price movements heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply-demand dynamics, and natural disasters. Today, the market experienced a strong bearish movement.

Why is Crude Oil going down?

CRUDE commodity is down 5.0% on Oct 15, 2024 10:35

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to suggestions that Israel may spare Iran's oil sites, alleviating fears of a major supply disruption in the region.
• Additionally, concerns over weak global demand, particularly from major markets like China, and projections of a surplus in early 2025 due to supply growth have further weighed down on oil prices.
• The market sentiment was impacted by the cutting of demand growth forecasts by the IEA, citing spare capacity in OPEC+ and slowing demand trends in key markets.
• Overall, the combination of geopolitical developments, demand concerns, and supply projections has led to the significant bearish movement in the Crude Oil market today.

CRUDE Price Chart

CRUDE Technical Analysis

CRUDE News

Oil Falls by 5% as Israel May Spare Iran's Oil Sites

WTI crude oil futures slumped 5% toward $70 per barrel on Tuesday, after reports suggested that Israel might avoid targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure, alleviating fears of a major supply disruption in the region. Israel indicated it may heed US warnings and focus on military rather than energy targets in Iran, though tensions remain high. Also, the IEA cut its demand growth forecasts, citing near-record spare capacity in OPEC+ and slowing demand in major markets like China. World oil demand is projected to increase by just under 900,000 bpd in 2024 and 1 million bpd in 2025, marking a slowdown from the 2 million bpd growth seen after the pandemic. Chinese oil demand is particularly weak, with consumption falling by 500,000 bpd in August for the fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, crude production in the Americas is expected to rise by 1.5 million bpd this year and next. On Monday, OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2024 and 2025 for the third consecutive month.

Oil Extends Fall on China Demand Worries

WTI crude oil futures fell to around $74.4 per barrel on Monday, accelerating its decline from the previous session, weighed down by concerns over China's economic outlook, a top crude importer. Data from the weekend showed that China's deflationary pressures intensified in September, while a press conference failed to ease concerns about downside growth risks, as the size of the stimulus package aimed at reviving the economy remains uncertain. Further pressuring prices is a projected surplus expected to emerge in early 2025, driven by weak global demand and strong supply growth. In the US, Baker Hughes data revealed that energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in four weeks on October 11. Meanwhile, lingering concerns remain about Israel's potential response to Iran's missile attack, which could target Iran's energy infrastructure.

WTI Crude Oil Post 2nd Weekly Gain on Middle East Tensions

WTI crude oil futures dipped by 0.3% to settle at $75.5 on Friday as investors considered the potential supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict and the effects of Hurricane Milton on fuel demand in Florida. Still, the U.S. benchmark marked their second consecutive weekly gain, and has surged over 10% since Iran's missile attack on Israel.The rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel’s potential retaliation to Iran’s missile attack. The situation has raised concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, fueling the price surge. Hurricane Milton also contributed to short-term fuel demand in Florida, although long-term consumption could be dampened by the storm’s aftermath. On the demand side, the outlook improved after top crude importer China unveiled a draft law to promote private sector growth, aiming to boost investor confidence amid an economic slowdown.

Oil Set for 2nd Weekly Gain

WTI crude oil futures traded around $75.5 per barrel on Friday, poised to book its second weekly gain, driven by increasing risks of supply disruptions. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet met on Thursday to discuss the timing and response to Iran's recent missile attack, keeping markets on edge over potential retaliatory strikes on Iran's oil industry. Additionally, disruptions from Hurricane Milton further supported prices, as nearly a quarter of gas stations in Florida ran out of fuel, and 3.4 million homes and businesses lost power. On the demand side, the outlook improved after top crude importer China unveiled a draft law to promote private sector growth, aiming to boost investor confidence amid an economic slowdown. Meanwhile, traders are assessing recent US data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, with inflation coming in higher than expected and a rise in jobless claims.

Oil Rises on Growing Supply Risks

WTI crude oil futures rose to around $73.6 per barrel on Thursday after falling for two consecutive sessions, supported by concerns over potential supply risks. Persistent fears remain that Iran's oil industry could be affected by the conflict with Israel, while markets are closely monitoring developments related to Hurricane Milton for possible supply disruptions. However, despite these threats, there are signs of ample supply, as EIA data showed a 5.8 million barrel rise in US crude inventories, surpassing the expected 2.0 million. Further weighing on prices is a weak demand outlook, reinforced by China's recent briefing, which provided few specifics on additional stimulus measures. Additionally, the US EIA lowered its 2025 demand forecast, citing economic slowdowns in China and North America. The return of Libyan oil exports is also driving down crude prices in the North Sea and Mediterranean, as local refiners reduce purchases of non-regional crudes.

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Crude Oil Price History

01.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 2.0%

• Today's uptick in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to several factors:
• Escalating tensions in the Middle East, notably between Israel and Hezbollah, have raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil exports from the region, leading to a risk premium on oil prices.
• Expectations of increased supply, including Libya's plans to resume oil production after a halt and OPEC's impending production hike, have limited the extent of price gains.
• Lingering concerns over weak demand from China, as seen through ongoing economic struggles and contraction in manufacturing and services sectors, continue to exert downward pressure on prices.
• The impact of Hurricane Helene forcing Gulf of Mexico producers to cut output has also contributed to the positive sentiment, highlighting supply disruptions as a supporting factor in the price surge.

26.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Concerns about demand, particularly from China, were a key factor contributing to the bearish movement in Crude Oil prices.
• The easing of supply worries from Libya, due to an agreement on appointing a central bank governor, also played a role in the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Despite an unexpected drawdown in US crude inventories, which exceeded market expectations, the overall sentiment remained bearish.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including escalating violence and the potential for broader conflicts, further added to market uncertainty and weighed on oil prices.

26.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The decline in Crude Oil prices today is linked to Saudi Arabia adjusting its crude oil price target, hinting at increased production and possible oversupply concerns.
• Improved supply conditions from Libya following the appointment of a central bank governor have reduced worries about output decreases, contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Lingering demand uncertainties, notably in China despite recent monetary support actions, have also suppressed prices, indicating a potential imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market.
• The risk of supply interruptions in the Middle East due to escalating violence in the region has mildly bolstered oil prices, but an overall bearish sentiment prevails due to the interplay of these factors.

10.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 3.0%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil today can be attributed to the persistent concerns over weak demand, particularly from major consumers like China, Europe, and the US.
• Supply disruptions from the Gulf storm, while initially providing some support to prices, were overshadowed by the overarching worries about oversupply and slowing consumption.
• The decision by OPEC+ to postpone its planned production increase to December might have also contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices, signaling a cautious approach to managing supply in the face of uncertain demand.
• The market sentiment remains cautious as investors weigh the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic indicators, and potential supply disruptions on the future trajectory of Crude Oil prices.

02.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.7%

• The surge in oil prices was triggered by Iran's missile attacks on Israel, raising fears of a broader regional conflict and potential disruptions in oil exports from the Middle East.
• Market reacted positively to the heightened geopolitical risks, as investors sought safe-haven assets like oil amid uncertainties in the region.
• The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with the anticipation of Iran's involvement, contributed to the bullish sentiment in the oil market.
• Despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand from China, the Middle East tensions took precedence, driving oil prices higher as traders monitored the situation closely for further developments.

03.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The decline in crude oil prices was largely driven by subdued demand and abundance of supply, resulting in WTI nearing a 7-month low.
• Anticipation of heightened supply levels was reinforced by signals from OPEC about increased production and OPEC+ members boosting output, placing further pressure on oil prices.
• Apprehensions regarding Chinese demand growth, exemplified by decreased factory activity and order reductions, also played a role in fostering negative sentiment in the oil market.
• Despite some positive signs such as the upward adjustment of U.S. economic growth in Q2 and minimal crude inventories in the U.S., the overall trajectory of the crude oil market remains bearish due to a blend of demand concerns and supply outlooks.

08.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.4%

• The recent bearish movement in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to:
• President Joe Biden's discouragement of strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure, which tempered fears of supply disruptions.
• Lack of new stimulus measures from China, a major crude importer, impacting demand.
• Analysts noting that oil prices cannot sustain rises based solely on speculation without actual supply disruptions.

03.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.0%

• The surge in Crude Oil prices was primarily driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East due to the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
• President Biden's cautious stance on the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran's oil facilities added to the risk premium in oil futures, further boosting prices.
• Despite a temporary halt in the rally after EIA data showed an increase in US crude stockpiles and a decline in gasoline demand, the overall market sentiment remained bullish due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.
• The market will continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East for any further developments that could impact global oil supply and prices.

15.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to suggestions that Israel may spare Iran's oil sites, alleviating fears of a major supply disruption in the region.
• Additionally, concerns over weak global demand, particularly from major markets like China, and projections of a surplus in early 2025 due to supply growth have further weighed down on oil prices.
• The market sentiment was impacted by the cutting of demand growth forecasts by the IEA, citing spare capacity in OPEC+ and slowing demand trends in key markets.
• Overall, the combination of geopolitical developments, demand concerns, and supply projections has led to the significant bearish movement in the Crude Oil market today.

15.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.3%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil today can be attributed to concerns over China's economic outlook, as deflationary pressures intensified and uncertainties loom over the stimulus package aimed at reviving the economy.
• The projected surplus expected in early 2025, driven by weak global demand and strong supply growth, added further pressure on oil prices.
• The lack of new stimulus measures from China, combined with the absence of actual supply disruptions despite geopolitical tensions, contributed to the pause in the recent rally and the subsequent 4% drop in oil prices.
• Overall, the bearish movement in Crude Oil today reflects a delicate balance between demand concerns, supply risks, and geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the volatility of the commodity market.

02.07.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to the combination of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and worries about global oil demand.
• The assassination of key figures in the Middle East, including Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah's top commander, has heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions, leading to initial price surges followed by corrections.
• Weak PMI data from major economies like the US and China, indicating a contraction in manufacturing sectors and signs of slowing demand, have further exacerbated worries about oil consumption, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
• Despite sporadic gains driven by supply disruption fears, the overall trend remains bearish as demand-side factors continue to weigh on the market sentiment, with Crude Oil on track for its fourth consecutive weekly decline.

02.07.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.1%

• Crude Oil prices fell due to mounting concerns about slowing global demand, highlighted by weak US and China PMI data, overshadowing worries about potential supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts.
• The bearish movement was further fueled by a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories, indicating a surplus in supply despite geopolitical tensions.
• Despite the ongoing Middle East worries and supply risks, the market sentiment was predominantly influenced by the significant slowdown in global economic growth, leading to the decline in Crude Oil prices.
• The consecutive weekly declines in oil prices also reflect the persistent concerns over weakening demand and the inability of geopolitical tensions to offset the broader economic factors impacting the commodity market.