Crude Oil ($CRUDE) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.4% Today

What is Crude Oil?

Crude Oil saw a significant bullish trend today, marked by a notable increase in WTI crude oil futures.

Why is Crude Oil going up?

CRUDE commodity is up 5.4% on Jan 10, 2025 14:21

• Factors driving this surge in oil prices include a decrease in US crude stockpiles, global oil market tightening, and concerns over future US policies under President-elect Donald Trump, including potential sanctions on Iran and trade conflicts.
• Additionally, the cold weather in the US has led to a reduction in inventory levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, to their lowest point since 2014. Decreased supply from major oil exporters like Russia and Iran is also influencing the current positive market momentum.
• Other contributing elements to the bullish market include an increase in demand for heating fuels, anticipated growth in demand from China, and colder weather in Europe and the US, all of which are bolstering oil prices.
• Nevertheless, uncertainties persist surrounding the likelihood of a supply surplus, the potential resurgence of OPEC+ production, and weaker demand from China, all of which could impact the oil market's trajectory for the year.

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Oil Heads for 3rd Weekly Gain

WTI crude oil futures rose over 2% to surpass $75.5 per barrel on Friday, reaching the highest level since October, driven by a drop in US crude stockpiles. Cold weather in the US reduced inventory levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, to their lowest since 2014. The global oil market is tightening due to reduced supply from key exporters like Russia and Iran, as well as a surge in demand for heating fuels. The rise in oil prices is also linked to fears surrounding US policy under President-elect Donald Trump, including potential sanctions on Iran and trade conflicts that could disrupt energy flows. Trump’s plans to authorize new drilling and impose tariffs on Canadian imports, including oil, further heightened market concerns. Oil is now heading for its third consecutive weekly gain.

Oil Rebounds on Thursday

WTI crude oil futures rose to $74 on Thursday as traders balanced supply risks against concerns over China's slowing economy. The market has been bolstered by a seventh consecutive weekly decline in US crude stockpiles and cold weather expected to drive higher heating fuel demand. Additionally, Russia’s seaborne crude exports dropped to their lowest level since August 2023, adding to supply concerns. However, gains were limited by signs of weak demand in China, where inflation continues to fall toward zero, and a stronger US dollar, which makes oil less appealing for international buyers.

Oil Drops as Dollar Strengthens

WTI crude oil futures fell to $73.5 per barrel on Wednesday, driven by a stronger dollar that offset supply concerns from Russia and a fall in US oil stocks. The dip in prices followed news reports that President-elect Trump may declare a national economic emergency to justify new tariffs. However, oil prices found support after US government data showed crude stockpiles dropped by 959,000 barrels last week, marking the seventh consecutive decline. Additionally, Russian oil production fell below OPEC+ targets, with exports hitting their lowest level since August 2023. Traders are also preparing for cold weather in the US, which has increased demand for heating fuel and raised the risk of freeze-offs in production areas.

Oil Rebounds Toward 3-Month High

WTI crude oil futures rose above $74 per barrel on Tuesday, recovering from earlier losses and nearing three-month highs, as concerns over tighter Russian and Iranian oil supply due to escalating Western sanctions supported prices. Worries over supply tightness boosted demand for Middle Eastern oil, as seen in Saudi Arabia's decision to raise oil prices for Asia in February, marking the first price increase in three months. In China, a move by Shandong Port Group to ban US-sanctioned oil vessels from its ports could limit access to key terminals. Additionally, colder weather in the US and Europe has increased heating oil demand, further supporting prices. However, the gains were limited by global economic data, including an expected rise in Eurozone inflation in December.

Oil Extends Gains for 6th Session

WTI crude oil futures rose above $74.6 per barrel on Monday, continuing a six-day rally to three-month highs, largely due to a decline in the US dollar, which makes dollar-denominated oil cheaper for foreign buyers. The dollar index dropped by about 1%, retreating from recent highs, following reports that the new Trump administration may adopt softer tariff measures. Last week, oil prices rose nearly 5%, supported by expectations of increased demand from China, colder weather in Europe and the US, and a drop in US stockpiles. On the supply side, Goldman Sachs predicts a decline in Iran's oil production and exports due to tighter sanctions under the incoming US administration. Despite these factors, the oil market's outlook for the year remains uncertain, with concerns about a potential supply glut, the possible return of OPEC+ production, and weaker demand from China.

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Crude Oil Price History

01.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 2.0%

• Today's uptick in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to several factors:
• Escalating tensions in the Middle East, notably between Israel and Hezbollah, have raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil exports from the region, leading to a risk premium on oil prices.
• Expectations of increased supply, including Libya's plans to resume oil production after a halt and OPEC's impending production hike, have limited the extent of price gains.
• Lingering concerns over weak demand from China, as seen through ongoing economic struggles and contraction in manufacturing and services sectors, continue to exert downward pressure on prices.
• The impact of Hurricane Helene forcing Gulf of Mexico producers to cut output has also contributed to the positive sentiment, highlighting supply disruptions as a supporting factor in the price surge.

26.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Concerns about demand, particularly from China, were a key factor contributing to the bearish movement in Crude Oil prices.
• The easing of supply worries from Libya, due to an agreement on appointing a central bank governor, also played a role in the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Despite an unexpected drawdown in US crude inventories, which exceeded market expectations, the overall sentiment remained bearish.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including escalating violence and the potential for broader conflicts, further added to market uncertainty and weighed on oil prices.

26.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The decline in Crude Oil prices today is linked to Saudi Arabia adjusting its crude oil price target, hinting at increased production and possible oversupply concerns.
• Improved supply conditions from Libya following the appointment of a central bank governor have reduced worries about output decreases, contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Lingering demand uncertainties, notably in China despite recent monetary support actions, have also suppressed prices, indicating a potential imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market.
• The risk of supply interruptions in the Middle East due to escalating violence in the region has mildly bolstered oil prices, but an overall bearish sentiment prevails due to the interplay of these factors.

10.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 3.0%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil today can be attributed to the persistent concerns over weak demand, particularly from major consumers like China, Europe, and the US.
• Supply disruptions from the Gulf storm, while initially providing some support to prices, were overshadowed by the overarching worries about oversupply and slowing consumption.
• The decision by OPEC+ to postpone its planned production increase to December might have also contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices, signaling a cautious approach to managing supply in the face of uncertain demand.
• The market sentiment remains cautious as investors weigh the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic indicators, and potential supply disruptions on the future trajectory of Crude Oil prices.

02.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.7%

• The surge in oil prices was triggered by Iran's missile attacks on Israel, raising fears of a broader regional conflict and potential disruptions in oil exports from the Middle East.
• Market reacted positively to the heightened geopolitical risks, as investors sought safe-haven assets like oil amid uncertainties in the region.
• The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with the anticipation of Iran's involvement, contributed to the bullish sentiment in the oil market.
• Despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand from China, the Middle East tensions took precedence, driving oil prices higher as traders monitored the situation closely for further developments.

03.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The decline in crude oil prices was largely driven by subdued demand and abundance of supply, resulting in WTI nearing a 7-month low.
• Anticipation of heightened supply levels was reinforced by signals from OPEC about increased production and OPEC+ members boosting output, placing further pressure on oil prices.
• Apprehensions regarding Chinese demand growth, exemplified by decreased factory activity and order reductions, also played a role in fostering negative sentiment in the oil market.
• Despite some positive signs such as the upward adjustment of U.S. economic growth in Q2 and minimal crude inventories in the U.S., the overall trajectory of the crude oil market remains bearish due to a blend of demand concerns and supply outlooks.

08.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.4%

• The recent bearish movement in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to:
• President Joe Biden's discouragement of strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure, which tempered fears of supply disruptions.
• Lack of new stimulus measures from China, a major crude importer, impacting demand.
• Analysts noting that oil prices cannot sustain rises based solely on speculation without actual supply disruptions.

03.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.0%

• The surge in Crude Oil prices was primarily driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East due to the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
• President Biden's cautious stance on the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran's oil facilities added to the risk premium in oil futures, further boosting prices.
• Despite a temporary halt in the rally after EIA data showed an increase in US crude stockpiles and a decline in gasoline demand, the overall market sentiment remained bullish due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.
• The market will continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East for any further developments that could impact global oil supply and prices.

15.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to suggestions that Israel may spare Iran's oil sites, alleviating fears of a major supply disruption in the region.
• Additionally, concerns over weak global demand, particularly from major markets like China, and projections of a surplus in early 2025 due to supply growth have further weighed down on oil prices.
• The market sentiment was impacted by the cutting of demand growth forecasts by the IEA, citing spare capacity in OPEC+ and slowing demand trends in key markets.
• Overall, the combination of geopolitical developments, demand concerns, and supply projections has led to the significant bearish movement in the Crude Oil market today.

15.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.3%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil today can be attributed to concerns over China's economic outlook, as deflationary pressures intensified and uncertainties loom over the stimulus package aimed at reviving the economy.
• The projected surplus expected in early 2025, driven by weak global demand and strong supply growth, added further pressure on oil prices.
• The lack of new stimulus measures from China, combined with the absence of actual supply disruptions despite geopolitical tensions, contributed to the pause in the recent rally and the subsequent 4% drop in oil prices.
• Overall, the bearish movement in Crude Oil today reflects a delicate balance between demand concerns, supply risks, and geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the volatility of the commodity market.

10.00.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.4%

• Factors driving this surge in oil prices include a decrease in US crude stockpiles, global oil market tightening, and concerns over future US policies under President-elect Donald Trump, including potential sanctions on Iran and trade conflicts.
• Additionally, the cold weather in the US has led to a reduction in inventory levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, to their lowest point since 2014. Decreased supply from major oil exporters like Russia and Iran is also influencing the current positive market momentum.
• Other contributing elements to the bullish market include an increase in demand for heating fuels, anticipated growth in demand from China, and colder weather in Europe and the US, all of which are bolstering oil prices.
• Nevertheless, uncertainties persist surrounding the likelihood of a supply surplus, the potential resurgence of OPEC+ production, and weaker demand from China, all of which could impact the oil market's trajectory for the year.

02.07.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.1%

• Crude Oil prices fell due to mounting concerns about slowing global demand, highlighted by weak US and China PMI data, overshadowing worries about potential supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts.
• The bearish movement was further fueled by a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories, indicating a surplus in supply despite geopolitical tensions.
• Despite the ongoing Middle East worries and supply risks, the market sentiment was predominantly influenced by the significant slowdown in global economic growth, leading to the decline in Crude Oil prices.
• The consecutive weekly declines in oil prices also reflect the persistent concerns over weakening demand and the inability of geopolitical tensions to offset the broader economic factors impacting the commodity market.