Crude Oil ($CRUDE) Commodity Forecast: Down 10.6% Today

What is Crude Oil?

Crude Oil is a vital commodity that plays a significant role in the global economy, with its prices being influenced by various geopolitical events and supply-demand dynamics.

Why is Crude Oil going down?

CRUDE commodity is down 10.6% on Jun 24, 2025 14:37

• Crude oil experienced a bearish movement today, with prices dropping significantly.
• The market movement was primarily driven by the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing concerns over potential oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• The de-escalation of tensions following Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar, which resulted in no casualties, contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Despite the temporary relief in the market, the situation remains fragile, with uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire and the possibility of Iran attempting to close the vital chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Oil Extends Losses

WTI crude futures fell by around 5% to $65.2 per barrel, extending a 7.5% loss in the previous session and trading below levels seen on June 12 when Israel attacked Iran. The decline followed President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which both sides appear to have accepted. The news eased concerns over potential oil supply disruptions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through daily. However, the truce remains fragile, as Israel has already accused Iran of violating the agreement, warning of new missile attacks from Iran and vowing to retaliate. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency had previously reassured markets that it holds 1.2 billion barrels in emergency stockpiles that could be deployed if needed. Also, some OPEC+ producers have already been increasing output and possess additional spare capacity that could be brought online.

Oil Falls After Trump Announces Israel-Iran Ceasefire

WTI crude oil futures dropped more than 1% to around $66.2 per barrel on Tuesday, hitting its lowest level in nearly two weeks, after US President Donald Trump said that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, alleviating fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Trump implied that the ceasefire was set to begin late on Monday, with Iran halting its attacks first, followed by Israel in the coming hours. If both sides maintain peace, the war will officially end after 24 hours, concluding a 12-day conflict. The announcement came just hours after Iran fired missiles at a US military base in Qatar in retaliation for US strikes on its nuclear facilities. US defenses intercepted the missiles and no casualties were reported, which led prices to settle over 7% lower on Monday. The de-escalation has eased concerns that Iran might attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes.

Crude Oil Slides 7% After Iran Strike Causes No Casualties

WTI crude oil futures tumbled 7.2% to settle at $68.50 per barrel on Monday, after Iran’s missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar resulted in no reported casualties, easing fears of an immediate escalation in Middle East tensions. The attack, launched in retaliation for US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, was intercepted by Qatari defenses, prompting a sharp retreat from $74.30—the highest level since January. While markets are now pricing in a potential de-escalation, significant risks remain—chief among them the threat of Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for about 20% of global oil flows. Although Iran’s parliament reportedly backed the move, the final decision rests with the country’s national security council. US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warned that such a step would be “economic suicide” for Iran and urged China—its largest oil customer—to intervene.

Crude Oil Falls Further as Tankers Navigate Hormuz

WTI crude oil futures extended their decline to the $72 per barrel threshold amid signs that Iran may refrain from targeting oil flows in the Persian Gulf as retaliation to strikes from the United States. Iran reportedly sent missiles to US bases in Qatar in response to the US's strikes at Iranian nuclear infrastructure over the weekend. Despite the escalation, oil tankers continued to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz and markets softened concerns that strikes would hamper the supply of oil, driving prices to fall sharply. Estimates indicate that over 20 million barrels per day of oil are shipped through the region, around 20% of global supply. Earlier, WTI surged to as high as $74.3, hitting its highest level since January, but that rally was unwound as the market reassessed the risk of near-term disruption, waiting for Iran’s next move.

WTI Oil Slips, But Logs 3rd Weekly Gain

WTI crude oil futures dipped 0.2% to settle at $73.80 per barrel on Friday but still posted a third consecutive weekly gain. The slight decline came as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East were tempered by President Trump’s decision to delay potential US military involvement against Iran, allowing time for possible diplomatic negotiations over its nuclear program. However, the situation remains volatile, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly ordering intensified strikes on strategic and government sites in Iran. Despite the heightened tensions, Iran has continued crude exports, reportedly loading 2.2 million barrels per day this week, the highest level in five weeks. Meanwhile, oil prices found support from a sharper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, with government data earlier in the week showing the largest weekly drawdown in a year. This mix of geopolitical risk and tightening supply helped maintain overall bullish sentiment in the oil market.

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Crude Oil Price History

13.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 4.3%

• Crude oil prices surged today as tensions between the US and Iran escalated, sparking fears of supply disruptions and supporting bullish sentiment in the market.
• Optimism surrounding US-China trade talks also contributed to the price increase, with hopes for stronger energy demand from the world's two largest economies.
• The agreement between the US and China, along with the potential easing of trade tensions, added to the positive outlook for oil demand, despite concerns about the impact of OPEC+ increasing output.
• Additionally, the drawdown in US crude inventories and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts further bolstered confidence in oil demand and economic growth, driving the bullish movement in the crude oil market today.

13.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 9.9%

• The surge in oil prices was primarily driven by Israel's preemptive strike on Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East and raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• Additional support came from the US preparing for a partial evacuation of personnel in the region, softer US inflation data reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts, and EIA data showing a significant decline in US crude stocks, indicating robust demand.
• The ongoing US-Iran tensions, coupled with trade optimism following agreements between the US and China, have added layers of uncertainty and optimism to the market, influencing the bullish movement in crude oil prices.
• While OPEC+ plans to increase output, the drawdown in US crude inventories and the potential impact of geopolitical events on supply chains continue to shape the bullish sentiment in the oil market.

13.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 6.6%

• The rise in crude oil prices was driven by Israel's actions against Iran, prompting concerns about potential disruptions in the global oil supply chain, particularly in the region near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including the US's preparations for a partial personnel evacuation from the Middle East and Iran's retaliatory threats, supported oil prices amidst the prevailing market instability.
• Favorable demand indicators, such as the considerable decline in US crude inventories and the anticipated economic stimulation from potential Fed rate cuts leading to increased oil consumption, further strengthened the positive outlook for crude oil.
• Despite some uncertainties arising from the lingering US-China trade tensions and the planned production increase by OPEC+ in July, the immediate market response remained optimistic, fueling the upward trajectory of oil prices.

11.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 6.5%

• Today's bullish movement in Crude Oil can be attributed to the following factors:
• President Trump's announcement of a preliminary trade deal with China boosted hopes for increased energy demand from the two largest economies, leading to a surge in oil prices.
• Ongoing tensions with Iran, with threats of strikes on US bases if nuclear talks fail, added pressure on the supply side, supporting higher oil prices.
• The drawdown in US crude inventories, coupled with OPEC+ plans to increase output, signaled potential tightening of supply conditions, further fueling the bullish sentiment in the market.
• Market participants eagerly await further developments in trade talks and geopolitical tensions, which could continue to drive Crude Oil prices in the near term.

17.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Crude Oil prices today was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, leading to concerns about potential disruptions in energy flows and trade routes.
• US President Donald Trump's call for the evacuation of Tehran and Israel's intensified airstrikes on Iran's capital contributed to market volatility, pushing oil prices higher.
• Signals of de-escalation from Iran and a willingness to resume nuclear negotiations helped ease market concerns, leading to a surge in oil prices as investors unwound risk-off positions.
• The fluctuating oil prices reflect the market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments and the potential impact on global oil supply chains, particularly through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

23.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 13.7%

• A 7% drop in Crude Oil prices followed Iran's missile attack on a US airbase in Qatar, which resulted in no casualties and relieved immediate escalation concerns.
• The market showed confidence in oil supply continuity as tankers proceeded through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical point for global oil shipment.
• President Trump's decision to hold off on potential US military action against Iran fostered hopes for diplomatic talks, contributing to the negative market sentiment for oil.
• Even with ongoing geopolitical turmoil and increasing conflicts between Israel and Iran, reports of Iran sustaining high levels of crude exports further pressured oil prices downward.

23.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 10.2%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to the softening concerns regarding potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran refrains from targeting oil flows in retaliation to US strikes.
• Despite escalating tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US, the market reassessed the immediate risk of supply disruptions, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices.
• Additionally, the market may have reacted to reports of Iran maintaining its crude exports at high levels, along with a sharper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, indicating a potential oversupply situation.
• Overall, the bearish movement in Crude Oil today reflects a combination of geopolitical developments, supply dynamics, and market sentiment adjustments, leading to a notable shift in prices.

17.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Crude Oil is linked to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, specifically Israel's strikes on Iran's assets, raising concerns about a broader regional war and potential supply disruptions.
• Interest from Iran in de-escalating tensions and resuming nuclear negotiations has led to fluctuations in oil prices, with market sentiment changing based on the perceived likelihood of a prolonged conflict.
• The Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil trade, remains a significant concern. Any threats of closure by Iran could pose a risk to oil prices and market stability.
• Geopolitical uncertainties, as well as factors like production quotas by OPEC+ and potential tariffs from the U.S., are contributing to the volatility in oil prices as traders navigate through the complexities of global events impacting the energy market.

23.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 6.4%

• The decline in Crude Oil today can be linked to:
• President Trump's choice to delay any likely US military action against Iran, lessening immediate worries of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• Intensified strikes by Israel on key targets in Iran, heightening tensions without an immediate outbreak of conflict.
• Profit-taking by investors as the immediate supply shock risk decreased with the postponement of a US airstrike on Iran.
• Indeterminate economic policies in the US pushing investors away from the dollar, bolstering commodities like oil traded in that currency.

16.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.8%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to the easing of tensions between Israel and Iran, as investors scaled back risk-off trades amid signs that the conflict may not escalate further.
• The belief that the tensions are likely to remain contained, coupled with Iran's oil infrastructure remaining untouched, contributed to the market retreat.
• Despite concerns over potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical risks, the market sentiment shifted towards a more stable outlook, leading to the bearish movement in Crude Oil prices.
• It is essential for traders to monitor geopolitical developments closely, as any escalation in tensions or disruptions to key oil supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reverse the current market trend.

24.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 11.3%

• The ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran by President Trump led to a drop in oil prices, as fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East eased.
• The lack of casualties in Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar contributed to the bearish movement, signaling a potential de-escalation in Middle East tensions.
• Despite the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, reports of Iran maintaining crude exports at high levels added pressure on oil prices.
• The market's reaction to recent developments suggests that investors are closely monitoring geopolitical dynamics in the region, balancing concerns of supply disruptions with signs of potential peace negotiations.

24.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 10.6%

• Crude oil experienced a bearish movement today, with prices dropping significantly.
• The market movement was primarily driven by the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing concerns over potential oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• The de-escalation of tensions following Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar, which resulted in no casualties, contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Despite the temporary relief in the market, the situation remains fragile, with uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire and the possibility of Iran attempting to close the vital chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz.