Prev Arrow Commodities

Crude Oil ($CRUDE) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

Morpher AI identified a bearish signal. The commodity price may continue to fall based on the momentum of the negative news.

What is Crude Oil?

Crude Oil is a major commodity in the global market, with its price fluctuations heavily influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and economic indicators.

Why is Crude Oil going down?

CRUDE commodity is down 5.1% on Jun 4, 2024 7:05

  • Crude Oil faced a bearish movement today, hitting a 4-month low, mainly due to concerns over higher supply levels and weakening demand:
  • A decision by OPEC+ to gradually increase supply by over 500,000 barrels per day starting from October and a total of 1.8 million bpd by June 2025 played a role in the bearish sentiment.
  • Signs of economic weakness in the US, such as contracting manufacturing activity and fears of the Federal Reserve not reducing interest rates, added to the downward pressure on oil prices.
  • The market's response indicates that investors are wary of the potential consequences of increased supply and reduced demand on oil prices in the short term.

CRUDE Price Chart

CRUDE News

Oil Extends Fall on Worries Over Higher Supply

WTI crude futures fell below $74 per barrel on Tuesday, sliding for the fifth straight session to the lowest in four months amid concerns that global supply could increase later this year. On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to extend most of their supply cuts into 2025 but opened the door for voluntary cuts from eight member countries to be gradually unwound from October onwards. By December, more than 500,000 barrels per day is expected to re-enter the market, with a total of 1.8 million bpd returning by June 2025. Signs of economic weakness in the US, the world’s largest oil consumer, also weighed on oil prices after US manufacturing activity contracted further in May. Moreover, oil markets have been pressured recently by fears that the US Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand.

Oil Falls to 4-Month Low on OPEC+ Deal

WTI crude oil futures fell over 2% to about $75 per barrel on Monday, the lowest in four months. This drop followed a complex deal by OPEC+ to extend output cuts, many into 2025. OPEC+ is currently reducing output by 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), about 5.7% of global demand. They agreed to extend 3.66 million bpd of cuts due to expire this year until the end of 2025 and keep 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts until September, gradually phasing them out by September 2025. Gas traders found the decision somewhat disappointing, given the expected gradual unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd cuts. The move aims to support the market amid weak demand growth, high interest rates, concerns over China's demand, and rising non-OPEC production.

Crude Oil Hits 14-week Low

Crude Oil decreased to a 14-week low of 76.28 USD/Bbl. Over the past 4 weeks, Crude Oil WTI lost 2.81%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 5.56%.

Oil Rises as OPEC+ Extends Supply Cuts

WTI crude futures rose toward $77.5 per barrel on Monday, snapping a three-day decline after OPEC+ agreed over the weekend to extend their collective output cuts into 2025. That would include 3.66 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2024, while the group also stretched another round of cuts totaling 2.2 million bpd until the end of the third quarter of this year. Meanwhile, eight OPEC+ countries indicated plans to gradually phase out the 2.2 million bpd of additional cuts over a year from October 2024 to September 2025. Last month, oil prices lost about 6% as demand-side uncertainties weighed on the market. Oil prices have been pressured recently by fears that the US Federal Reserve will prolong high interest rates, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand.

Oil Settles Below $77, Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

WTI crude futures fell over 1.1% to settle at $76.99 per barrel on Friday, marking a 6% decline for the month, the worst performance since November. This drop comes ahead of the weekend OPEC+ meeting, where members are expected to extend supply cuts into 2025 and review voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. The oil market has been pressured recently by concerns that prolonged higher borrowing costs could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Several Federal Reserve officials have indicated the need for more time to ensure inflation is cooling before considering rate cuts. Meanwhile, recent EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels last week, exceeding expectations of a 1.9 million barrel draw. However, US gasoline stockpiles rose by 2 million barrels, despite forecasts for a 400,000-barrel draw, indicating weak demand ahead of the Memorial Day weekend.

Avalanche ($AVAX) Crypto Forecast: Down 7.9% Today

Solana ($SOL) Crypto Forecast: Down 8.9% Today

Polygon ($MATIC) Crypto Forecast: Down 6.5% Today

Litecoin ($LTC) Crypto Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

Chainlink ($LINK) Crypto Forecast: Down 5.3% Today

Shiba Inu ($SHIB) Crypto Forecast: Down 5.3% Today

Memecoin ($MEME) Crypto Forecast: Down 5.9% Today

Ethereum Name Service ($ENS) Crypto Forecast: Down 17.1% Today

The Graph ($GRT) Crypto Forecast: Down 6.9% Today

Pepe ($PEPE) Crypto Forecast: Down 9.3% Today

Crude Oil Price History

03.05.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 2.4%

  • Crude Oil hit a 14-week low at $76.28 USD/Bbl, marking a bearish trend in the market.
  • Despite supply cuts agreed upon by OPEC+, concerns about demand-side uncertainties and fears of prolonged high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve have weighed on oil prices.
  • The market was further pressured by weak demand indicators, such as a drop in energy consumption and an unexpected rise in US gasoline stockpiles, signaling a potential decrease in oil demand.
  • The combination of these factors led to a bearish movement in Crude Oil prices, despite efforts by OPEC+ to stabilize the market through supply cuts.

04.03.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 1.4%

  • The bullish movement in Crude Oil prices was supported by OPEC+ maintaining current output cuts and urging members to enhance compliance, leading to supply stability and price support.
  • Geopolitical tensions, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and fears of broader conflicts involving Iran, contributed to supply concerns and price volatility.
  • Unexpected EIA data showing an increase in US crude inventories, despite market expectations of a draw, briefly tempered the bullish momentum but was offset by declines in Cushing inventories and other petroleum products.
  • Overall, the market sentiment remains positive due to a solid demand outlook in the US, resilient labor market data, and ongoing efforts by major oil-producing countries to balance supply and demand dynamics.

16.10.2023 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.3%

  • Crude Oil experienced a bearish movement due to increasing signs of low demand and eased concerns of scarce supply.
  • Oil refinery throughput in China fell, pointing to lower industrial fuel demand and slowing industrial activity.
  • US crude oil stocks increased, indicating a surplus in supply.
  • Conflicting perspectives on global oil supply and demand, with the International Energy Agency suggesting the market won't be as tight as initially thought, while OPEC emphasized strong growth trends and healthy fundamentals.

07.10.2023 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.1%

  • Crude Oil experienced a strong bearish movement, with prices falling to a 2-1/2-month low.
  • Concerns about global demand, particularly due to China's worse-than-expected drop in exports, weighed on the market.
  • The supply side also played a role, as top crude producers Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to additional voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of the year.
  • Overall, the market movement can be attributed to a combination of demand concerns and supply dynamics.

13.09.2023 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.5%

  • Crude oil experienced a strong bullish movement today, with prices rising above $86 per barrel.
  • The ongoing conflict in southern Israel and Gaza, along with heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributed to the bullish market movement.
  • The US imposing sanctions on owners of tankers transporting Russian oil above the G7's price cap of $60 per barrel also added to the bullish sentiment.
  • Despite a significant increase in US crude inventories, supply concerns and expectations of global crude stockpile decline supported the bullish trend.

04.09.2023 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.4%

  • Crude oil experienced a strong bearish movement today, with prices falling below $88 per barrel.
  • The bearish market movement can be attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar and surging Treasury yields, which led to a selloff in risk assets.
  • Additionally, the market was influenced by the decision of OPEC+ to maintain the group's oil output policy, extending voluntary supply cuts until the end of the year.
  • The decline in crude oil prices was also influenced by strong US economic data, which boosted the dollar and Treasury yields, creating concerns about high borrowing costs and hampering the outlook on energy demand.
i
Disclaimer
Morpher is not liable for the content of the AI investment insights. Like most GPT-powered tools, these summaries may contain AI hallucinations and inaccurate information. Morpher is not presenting you with any investment advice. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. These summaries do not constitute investment advice.