Crude Oil ($CRUDE) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

What is Crude Oil?

Crude Oil is a widely traded commodity used in various industries such as energy, transportation, and manufacturing. Its prices are influenced by a multitude of factors including global demand, geopolitical events, and supply disruptions.

Why is Crude Oil going down?

CRUDE commodity is down 5.1% on Feb 4, 2025 14:07

• Crude oil experienced a bearish movement as WTI futures fell below $72 per barrel.
• The market movement can be attributed to China's announcement of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, including a 10% tariff on crude oil imports.
• The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and major trading partners, coupled with concerns over global economic growth, have added uncertainty to the energy market, leading to the decline in oil prices.
• Despite efforts by OPEC+ to uphold existing production plans, the impact of trade disputes and geopolitical tensions on oil prices remains a key concern for investors and traders.

CRUDE Price Chart

CRUDE Technical Analysis

CRUDE News

Oil Drops Further After China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs

WTI crude oil futures fell below $72 per barrel on Tuesday after China announced a package of tariffs on a range of U.S. products in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs, heightening concerns about a potential trade war between the world’s two largest economies. China said it will impose tariffs of 15% on coal and LNG imports from the U.S. and 10% on crude oil, farm equipment, and certain cars, effective February 10. This move came after the passing of a deadline that imposed a 10% U.S. tariff on all Chinese goods. Trump had earlier delayed planned levies on Canada and Mexico by a month after both countries agreed to boost border enforcement to address Trump's concerns over immigration and drug smuggling. Elsewhere, OPEC and its allies upheld their existing oil production plans at a review meeting on Monday, despite Trump’s calls to lower crude prices by expanding output.

Oil Falls After Trump Delays Tariffs

WTI crude oil futures dropped to around $72.2 per barrel on Tuesday, erasing all of Monday’s gains after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on his tariff threats against Mexico and Canada, the nation’s two largest foreign crude suppliers. The decision came after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to boost border enforcement in response to Trump's concerns over immigration and drug smuggling. While the pause eases trade tensions in North America, uncertainty remains, as Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports is still set to take effect today, but Trump said he would speak to Beijing soon regarding the duties. On the demand side, concerns persist as top importer China’s factory activity growth slowed in January. Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies upheld their existing oil production plans at a review meeting on Monday, despite Trump’s calls to lower crude prices by expanding output.

Oil Pares Gains after OPEC+ Meeting

WTI crude oil futures eased gains and traded around $73 per barrel after OPEC+ reaffirmed its gradual output increase and removed the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) from its list of sources for monitoring production. The decision follows past tensions between OPEC+ and President Trump, who previously pressured the group to boost supply to offset US sanctions on Iran. Since returning to office, Trump has again urged OPEC to release more oil, arguing high prices support Russia’s war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump’s new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China rattled markets, adding uncertainty to global trade and energy supply. The tariffs include a 25% levy on most goods from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada and Chinese goods. Canada and Mexico are major suppliers of crude to the US, making up about a quarter of the oil refined into fuels like gasoline and heating oil.

Oil Surges as Trump Imposes Tariffs

WTI crude oil futures rose to around $73.7 per barrel on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump's imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. The US announced tariffs of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on those from China, set to take effect on Tuesday. Canadian energy also faces a 10% tariff. In response, both Canada and Mexico said they were preparing similar tariffs on US goods, while China said it will file a lawsuit at the World Trade Organization. However, crude prices may face downward pressure in the near term as the implementation of tariffs and the subsequent retaliation could trigger a broader trade war, weighing on global economic growth and dampening energy demand.

Oil Extends Gains

WTI crude oil futures rose above $73 per barrel on Friday, extending gains from the previous session, as traders awaited further clarity on President Trump's looming tariff deadline. Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Saturday but indicated he was still considering whether to exempt oil from the levies. Canada and Mexico are the two largest crude exporters to the US. Meanwhile, investors are also looking ahead to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for February 3, as Trump pressures the group, particularly Saudi Arabia, to lower oil prices. Traders expect OPEC+ to maintain its current supply policy, with additional supply increases only starting in April. For the month, oil is on track for a second consecutive monthly gain, driven by early reports of US sanctions on Russia and cold weather in the US.

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Crude Oil Price History

01.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 2.0%

• Today's uptick in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to several factors:
• Escalating tensions in the Middle East, notably between Israel and Hezbollah, have raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil exports from the region, leading to a risk premium on oil prices.
• Expectations of increased supply, including Libya's plans to resume oil production after a halt and OPEC's impending production hike, have limited the extent of price gains.
• Lingering concerns over weak demand from China, as seen through ongoing economic struggles and contraction in manufacturing and services sectors, continue to exert downward pressure on prices.
• The impact of Hurricane Helene forcing Gulf of Mexico producers to cut output has also contributed to the positive sentiment, highlighting supply disruptions as a supporting factor in the price surge.

26.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Concerns about demand, particularly from China, were a key factor contributing to the bearish movement in Crude Oil prices.
• The easing of supply worries from Libya, due to an agreement on appointing a central bank governor, also played a role in the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Despite an unexpected drawdown in US crude inventories, which exceeded market expectations, the overall sentiment remained bearish.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including escalating violence and the potential for broader conflicts, further added to market uncertainty and weighed on oil prices.

26.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The decline in Crude Oil prices today is linked to Saudi Arabia adjusting its crude oil price target, hinting at increased production and possible oversupply concerns.
• Improved supply conditions from Libya following the appointment of a central bank governor have reduced worries about output decreases, contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Lingering demand uncertainties, notably in China despite recent monetary support actions, have also suppressed prices, indicating a potential imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market.
• The risk of supply interruptions in the Middle East due to escalating violence in the region has mildly bolstered oil prices, but an overall bearish sentiment prevails due to the interplay of these factors.

10.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 3.0%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil today can be attributed to the persistent concerns over weak demand, particularly from major consumers like China, Europe, and the US.
• Supply disruptions from the Gulf storm, while initially providing some support to prices, were overshadowed by the overarching worries about oversupply and slowing consumption.
• The decision by OPEC+ to postpone its planned production increase to December might have also contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices, signaling a cautious approach to managing supply in the face of uncertain demand.
• The market sentiment remains cautious as investors weigh the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic indicators, and potential supply disruptions on the future trajectory of Crude Oil prices.

02.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.7%

• The surge in oil prices was triggered by Iran's missile attacks on Israel, raising fears of a broader regional conflict and potential disruptions in oil exports from the Middle East.
• Market reacted positively to the heightened geopolitical risks, as investors sought safe-haven assets like oil amid uncertainties in the region.
• The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with the anticipation of Iran's involvement, contributed to the bullish sentiment in the oil market.
• Despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand from China, the Middle East tensions took precedence, driving oil prices higher as traders monitored the situation closely for further developments.

03.08.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The decline in crude oil prices was largely driven by subdued demand and abundance of supply, resulting in WTI nearing a 7-month low.
• Anticipation of heightened supply levels was reinforced by signals from OPEC about increased production and OPEC+ members boosting output, placing further pressure on oil prices.
• Apprehensions regarding Chinese demand growth, exemplified by decreased factory activity and order reductions, also played a role in fostering negative sentiment in the oil market.
• Despite some positive signs such as the upward adjustment of U.S. economic growth in Q2 and minimal crude inventories in the U.S., the overall trajectory of the crude oil market remains bearish due to a blend of demand concerns and supply outlooks.

08.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.4%

• The recent bearish movement in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to:
• President Joe Biden's discouragement of strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure, which tempered fears of supply disruptions.
• Lack of new stimulus measures from China, a major crude importer, impacting demand.
• Analysts noting that oil prices cannot sustain rises based solely on speculation without actual supply disruptions.

03.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.0%

• The surge in Crude Oil prices was primarily driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East due to the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
• President Biden's cautious stance on the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran's oil facilities added to the risk premium in oil futures, further boosting prices.
• Despite a temporary halt in the rally after EIA data showed an increase in US crude stockpiles and a decline in gasoline demand, the overall market sentiment remained bullish due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.
• The market will continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East for any further developments that could impact global oil supply and prices.

04.01.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.1%

• Crude oil experienced a bearish movement as WTI futures fell below $72 per barrel.
• The market movement can be attributed to China's announcement of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, including a 10% tariff on crude oil imports.
• The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and major trading partners, coupled with concerns over global economic growth, have added uncertainty to the energy market, leading to the decline in oil prices.
• Despite efforts by OPEC+ to uphold existing production plans, the impact of trade disputes and geopolitical tensions on oil prices remains a key concern for investors and traders.

15.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to suggestions that Israel may spare Iran's oil sites, alleviating fears of a major supply disruption in the region.
• Additionally, concerns over weak global demand, particularly from major markets like China, and projections of a surplus in early 2025 due to supply growth have further weighed down on oil prices.
• The market sentiment was impacted by the cutting of demand growth forecasts by the IEA, citing spare capacity in OPEC+ and slowing demand trends in key markets.
• Overall, the combination of geopolitical developments, demand concerns, and supply projections has led to the significant bearish movement in the Crude Oil market today.

15.09.2024 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.3%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil today can be attributed to concerns over China's economic outlook, as deflationary pressures intensified and uncertainties loom over the stimulus package aimed at reviving the economy.
• The projected surplus expected in early 2025, driven by weak global demand and strong supply growth, added further pressure on oil prices.
• The lack of new stimulus measures from China, combined with the absence of actual supply disruptions despite geopolitical tensions, contributed to the pause in the recent rally and the subsequent 4% drop in oil prices.
• Overall, the bearish movement in Crude Oil today reflects a delicate balance between demand concerns, supply risks, and geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the volatility of the commodity market.

10.00.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.4%

• Factors driving this surge in oil prices include a decrease in US crude stockpiles, global oil market tightening, and concerns over future US policies under President-elect Donald Trump, including potential sanctions on Iran and trade conflicts.
• Additionally, the cold weather in the US has led to a reduction in inventory levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, to their lowest point since 2014. Decreased supply from major oil exporters like Russia and Iran is also influencing the current positive market momentum.
• Other contributing elements to the bullish market include an increase in demand for heating fuels, anticipated growth in demand from China, and colder weather in Europe and the US, all of which are bolstering oil prices.
• Nevertheless, uncertainties persist surrounding the likelihood of a supply surplus, the potential resurgence of OPEC+ production, and weaker demand from China, all of which could impact the oil market's trajectory for the year.