Gasoline ($GASOLINE) Commodity Forecast: Down 1.4% Today

What is Gasoline?

Gasoline is a key commodity used primarily as fuel for vehicles, with its price closely tied to crude oil prices and supply-demand dynamics in the energy market.

Why is Gasoline going down?

GASOLINE commodity is down 1.4% on Oct 21, 2025 13:51

• Gasoline futures experienced strong downward movement, nearing 2021 lows, driven by falling crude oil prices, abundant inventories, and reduced demand.
• A notable increase in US crude inventories and concerns over demand due to US-China trade tensions added to the downward pressure on gasoline prices.
• Additionally, lower-than-expected drawdown in gasoline inventories and decreased demand as autumn started were factors contributing to the declining gasoline prices.
• Projections indicate that US drivers are expected to spend the smallest portion of disposable income on gasoline in two decades, with ongoing low costs, reflecting an oversupply and weak demand scenario in the gasoline market.

GASOLINE Price Chart

GASOLINE Technical Analysis

GASOLINE News

Gasoline Approaches 2021 Lows

US gasoline futures dropped toward $1.80 per gallon, approaching their lowest level since February 2021, driven by declining crude oil prices, ample inventories, and weakening demand. The decline in crude was reinforced by the EIA’s report showing a 3.5 million-barrel build in US crude inventories for the week ending October 10th, raising concerns about soft demand amid ongoing US–China trade tensions. Gasoline inventories, meanwhile, drew 267,000 barrels to just below the five-year average, a much smaller draw than the prior week’s 1.6 million barrels, indicating supply remains sufficient. The EIA also noted that gasoline demand has slipped to a four-month low as autumn sets in, and projects that US drivers will spend the lowest share of disposable income on gasoline in two decades, with costs expected to remain below 2% of income in 2025.

Gasoline Hits 4-1/2-year Low

Gasoline decreased to 1.80 USD/Gal, the lowest since February 2021. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline lost 10.92%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 11.65%.

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Gasoline Price History

29.07.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.2%

• Gasoline experienced a bearish movement today, dropping by 7.46% to 1.9818 USD/Gal.
• The retreat from the recent monthly high of $2.165 can be attributed to easing crude feedstock costs, stronger refinery output, recovering supply, and moderating demand.
• Factors such as declining inventories, higher refinery utilization, softening demand post-summer driving season, and elevated imports have contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline prices.
• The overall market sentiment for gasoline seems to be influenced by a combination of supply-side factors, demand dynamics, and broader trends in the energy sector, leading to the bearish movement observed today.

28.07.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.5%

• Gasoline prices reached a 4-week high at $2.17 USD/Gal before dropping below $2.14 per gallon.
• The decline in gasoline prices can be attributed to lower crude feedstock costs, increased refinery output, improved supply levels, and decreased demand as the summer driving season wraps up.
• The drop in oil benchmarks following geopolitical events has lessened refinery margins, easing the upward pressure on gasoline prices.
• Despite decreasing inventory levels and improvements in supply tightness due to higher refinery utilization and increased imports, factors like softened demand and seasonal trends have kept gasoline price gains in check.

21.09.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 1.4%

• Gasoline futures experienced strong downward movement, nearing 2021 lows, driven by falling crude oil prices, abundant inventories, and reduced demand.
• A notable increase in US crude inventories and concerns over demand due to US-China trade tensions added to the downward pressure on gasoline prices.
• Additionally, lower-than-expected drawdown in gasoline inventories and decreased demand as autumn started were factors contributing to the declining gasoline prices.
• Projections indicate that US drivers are expected to spend the smallest portion of disposable income on gasoline in two decades, with ongoing low costs, reflecting an oversupply and weak demand scenario in the gasoline market.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.0%

• Gasoline futures surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, which raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, pushing prices higher.
• The drop in US crude inventories, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties and trade optimism, provided further support to Gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns about oversupply and rising inventories, the summer driving season's increased travel demand and the looming threat of hurricanes impacting supply chains added upward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• OPEC+ plans to gradually increase output, but the market remains sensitive to any disruptions that could impact supply, keeping Gasoline prices elevated.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 2.1%

• Gasoline futures surged to a three-week high of $2.12 per gallon due to a combination of factors:
• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade optimism, with recent comments relating to the US-China trade deal and uncertainties over a nuclear deal with Iran affecting market sentiment.
• Decrease in US crude inventories surpassing expectations, indicating a potential rise in gasoline demand.
• Plans by OPEC+ to increase output in July, which could impact supply dynamics and offer further support to gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns regarding oversupply and a decline in gasoline consumption, the ongoing momentum of the summer driving season, coupled with robust travel demand influenced by warm weather and increased road trips, is bolstering the upward trend in gasoline futures.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• Gasoline prices surged to a 10-week high of $2.20 per gallon due to a combination of factors:
• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade optimism.
• Decrease in US crude inventories exceeding forecasts, indicating strong demand for gasoline.
• Summer driving season gaining momentum, with increased travel demand and a surge in road trips.
• Potential supply disruptions from the prediction of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

28.07.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 1.1%

• Gasoline prices rose due to decreasing crude oil costs, rising refinery production, and improving supply levels.
• Despite inventory reductions and continuous draws, stocks are starting to recover from seasonal lows, easing supply worries.
• Demand has weakened as the summer driving season nears its end, and increased imports have restrained the possibility of continuous price surges in the gasoline market.

23.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 8.0%

• Gasoline futures fell as fears of major supply disruptions from the Middle East eased, leading to a decline in prices.
• Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, physical oil flows remained stable, contributing to the bearish market movement.
• Increased US gasoline inventories and a sharp drop in domestic production tightened refined fuel availability, further pressuring prices downward.
• President Trump's decision to delay military intervention allowed room for diplomacy, temporarily halting the rally in gasoline prices as markets absorbed the news.

23.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 4.8%

• Gasoline futures surged to 10-month highs above $2.34 per gallon due to fears of US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and potential retaliation from Tehran, impacting broader energy markets.
• The rally in gasoline prices paused around $2.32 per gallon as diplomatic efforts were pursued following President Trump's decision to delay military intervention, easing immediate supply concerns.
• Ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainties surrounding Iran's response to diplomatic overtures have kept markets on edge, with gasoline futures hovering near 11-week highs around $2.28 per gallon.
• Gasoline futures rose to $2.25 per gallon, the highest in 11 weeks, amidst escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran, despite a sharp drop in US gasoline usage and a significant increase in inventories, adding to bearish sentiment.

31.06.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 0.7%

• Gasoline futures rose to a 6-week high due to a significant drop in inventories, signaling tighter near-term supply and pushing prices higher.
• Geopolitical risks, such as recent actions in Ukraine, added to the bullish sentiment by raising concerns about potential energy supply disruptions.
• Despite the recent price increase, projections indicate softer gasoline demand for the year, with refiners shifting focus towards diesel and jet fuel production. This has led to a persistent gasoline surplus, dampening market sentiment.

30.08.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gasoline prices experienced a bearish movement today due to a combination of factors:
• Tracking crude oil lower, as ample domestic fuel inventories and signs of supply restoration, such as the reopening of an oil pipeline in Iraq, added pressure on prices.
• Softening seasonal demand as the driving season wanes, reducing consumption just as refineries shift to lower-cost winter blends, further impacting prices.
• Despite some rebound from a recent low, the overall outlook of muted fuel demand, driven by factors like reduced summer travel in the US and anti-involution policies in China, constrained any significant price recovery.

30.08.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 4.8%

• Gasoline prices fell below $2 per barrel, tracking crude oil's downward trend driven by increased supply from Iraq and ample domestic inventories. Lower driving season demand also contributed to easing margins.
• Despite reaching a 4-week peak, Gasoline futures faced selling pressure as the market reevaluated the oversupply of global energy resources, prompting a rebound from a 5-month low. Geopolitical tensions and the EU's suggested sanctions on Russian energy products added to market uncertainty.
• President Trump's urging for the EU to halt Russian oil imports added to energy market instability affecting Gasoline futures. Reduced fuel demand projections, seasonal effects, and geopolitical events like Ukrainian strikes in Russian fuel facilities also played a role in the downward trend of Gasoline prices.