Gasoline ($GASOLINE) Commodity Forecast: Down 8.0% Today

What is Gasoline?

Gasoline futures experienced a bearish movement today amid fluctuating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and mixed supply and demand dynamics.

Why is Gasoline going down?

GASOLINE commodity is down 8.0% on Jun 23, 2025 20:21

• Gasoline futures fell as fears of major supply disruptions from the Middle East eased, leading to a decline in prices.
• Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, physical oil flows remained stable, contributing to the bearish market movement.
• Increased US gasoline inventories and a sharp drop in domestic production tightened refined fuel availability, further pressuring prices downward.
• President Trump's decision to delay military intervention allowed room for diplomacy, temporarily halting the rally in gasoline prices as markets absorbed the news.

GASOLINE Price Chart

GASOLINE Technical Analysis

GASOLINE News

US Gasoline Futures Reverse from August High

US gasoline futures fell toward $2.31 per gallon, reversing earlier gains after hitting their highest level since August 2024. The decline followed easing fears of major supply disruptions from the Middle East. Investors saw no immediate impact on physical oil flows after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Although Israel ramped up attacks and Iran vowed retaliation, Iran's response has so far been limited. Despite the region producing about a third of the world’s crude, oil shipments — including those through the key Strait of Hormuz — remain stable. In fact, Iranian oil exports appear to have increased since the conflict began. On the supply side, EIA data showed a 209,000-barrel increase in US gasoline inventories for the week ending June 13, while domestic production fell sharply by 295,000 barrels to 386,000, tightening refined fuel availability and supporting prices.

US Gasoline Futures Rises to 10-Month High

US gasoline futures rose above $2.34 per gallon, the highest since August 2024, following gains in broader energy markets as traders braced for a potential response from Tehran after US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. The focus remains on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about 20% of global crude flows. While Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that all options are on the table, there have been no confirmed disruptions to physical oil flows yet. Still, Iran has vowed "everlasting consequences" for the strikes, and Israel has resumed attacks on military targets in Iran. Markets are particularly sensitive to any move by Tehran to block the strait, which could trigger a sharp spike in global energy prices. On the supply side, EIA data showed a 209,000-barrel increase in US gasoline inventories for the week ending June 13, while domestic production fell sharply by 295,000 barrels to 386,000, tightening refined fuel availability and supporting prices.

Gasoline Halts Rally Near August Highs

US gasoline futures hovered around $2.32 per gallon, pausing their climb toward August highs as markets absorbed President Trump’s decision to delay any US military intervention in the Iran–Israel conflict for up to two weeks, allowing room for diplomacy. Although Iran’s export infrastructure remains intact, lingering fears over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for roughly 20% of global seaborne oil, continue to underpin risk premiums. Meanwhile, EIA data showed a modest 209,000-barrel build in U.S. gasoline stocks for the week to June 13th, even as domestic production plunged by 295,000 barrels to 386,000, tightening the supply of refined fuel.

US Gasoline Futures Hover at 11-Week High

US gasoline futures hovered around $2.28 per gallon, near their highest since early April, as Middle East tensions kept markets on edge. President Trump said Iran had reached out for talks but added it may be "too late," while avoiding direct answers about a possible US strike. Earlier in the week, he demanded Iran’s "unconditional surrender," a demand rejected by Iran’s leader. While Iran’s export infrastructure remains intact, concerns linger over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for around 20% of global oil. A major disruption there could significantly affect global crude and refined fuel flows. Meanwhile, the EIA reported a small gasoline stock build of 209,000 barrels for the week ending June 13, while production dropped sharply to 386,000 barrels, down from 681,000 the week before.

US Gasoline Futures Rise to 11-Week High

US gasoline futures climbed to $2.25 per gallon, the highest in 11 weeks, amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Prices surged after President Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for a fifth day. While Iran’s export infrastructure remains intact, concerns linger over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for around 20% of global oil. A major disruption there could significantly affect global crude and refined fuel flows. On the demand side, US gasoline usage fell sharply to 8.26 million b/d from 9.45 million, according to the EIA. Inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels to 228.3 million, while production slipped to 9 million b/d, adding to bearish sentiment despite the summer driving season.

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Gasoline Price History

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.0%

• Gasoline futures surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, which raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, pushing prices higher.
• The drop in US crude inventories, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties and trade optimism, provided further support to Gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns about oversupply and rising inventories, the summer driving season's increased travel demand and the looming threat of hurricanes impacting supply chains added upward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• OPEC+ plans to gradually increase output, but the market remains sensitive to any disruptions that could impact supply, keeping Gasoline prices elevated.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 2.1%

• Gasoline futures surged to a three-week high of $2.12 per gallon due to a combination of factors:
• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade optimism, with recent comments relating to the US-China trade deal and uncertainties over a nuclear deal with Iran affecting market sentiment.
• Decrease in US crude inventories surpassing expectations, indicating a potential rise in gasoline demand.
• Plans by OPEC+ to increase output in July, which could impact supply dynamics and offer further support to gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns regarding oversupply and a decline in gasoline consumption, the ongoing momentum of the summer driving season, coupled with robust travel demand influenced by warm weather and increased road trips, is bolstering the upward trend in gasoline futures.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• Gasoline prices surged to a 10-week high of $2.20 per gallon due to a combination of factors:
• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade optimism.
• Decrease in US crude inventories exceeding forecasts, indicating strong demand for gasoline.
• Summer driving season gaining momentum, with increased travel demand and a surge in road trips.
• Potential supply disruptions from the prediction of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

09.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.1%

• Gasoline futures surged despite hitting a multi-month low, as fears of a global economic slowdown and escalating trade tensions between countries weighed on energy markets.
• The unexpected decision to increase oil output by 411,000 barrels per day for May, well above market expectations, contributed to concerns about oversupply and a potential glut in the oil market, impacting Gasoline prices.
• President Trump's imposition of tariffs on various countries, coupled with retaliatory measures, added to market uncertainty and the risk of a broader economic slowdown, further influencing the bullish movement in Gasoline prices.
• Despite a slight draw in gasoline stocks, the broader market selloff, supply glut worries, and weakening demand outlook due to trade tensions and economic uncertainties played a significant role in driving Gasoline prices higher today.

09.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gasoline futures plummeted to multi-week lows due to a combination of factors, including:
• OPEC+ announcing a substantial 411,000 bpd output increase for May, signaling oversupply in the global oil market.
• President Trump's trade restrictions and the escalating trade war with China, heightening fears of a global economic slowdown and reduced energy demand.
• Surging US crude inventories and falling gasoline stockpiles, indicating weakening demand for gasoline.
• The exemption of oil, gas, and refined products from Trump's tariffs provided some relief, but broader economic concerns continued to weigh heavily on the energy markets.
• Traders are closely monitoring OPEC+ meetings for potential output adjustments to counterbalance oversupply issues exacerbated by record production from countries like Kazakhstan, adding further uncertainty to Gasoline's future trajectory.

23.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 8.0%

• Gasoline futures fell as fears of major supply disruptions from the Middle East eased, leading to a decline in prices.
• Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, physical oil flows remained stable, contributing to the bearish market movement.
• Increased US gasoline inventories and a sharp drop in domestic production tightened refined fuel availability, further pressuring prices downward.
• President Trump's decision to delay military intervention allowed room for diplomacy, temporarily halting the rally in gasoline prices as markets absorbed the news.

23.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 4.8%

• Gasoline futures surged to 10-month highs above $2.34 per gallon due to fears of US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and potential retaliation from Tehran, impacting broader energy markets.
• The rally in gasoline prices paused around $2.32 per gallon as diplomatic efforts were pursued following President Trump's decision to delay military intervention, easing immediate supply concerns.
• Ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainties surrounding Iran's response to diplomatic overtures have kept markets on edge, with gasoline futures hovering near 11-week highs around $2.28 per gallon.
• Gasoline futures rose to $2.25 per gallon, the highest in 11 weeks, amidst escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran, despite a sharp drop in US gasoline usage and a significant increase in inventories, adding to bearish sentiment.

03.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.4%

• Gasoline prices hit a 7-month high due to a combination of factors such as increasing demand with the onset of the spring travel season, tightening supply dynamics, and elevated refinery input costs.
• The surge in demand coinciding with declining domestic inventories and reduced production contributed to the bullish trend.
• Higher crude oil prices, driven by global supply constraints and tariffs on Canadian crude, added to the cost pressures on refineries, impacting gasoline prices negatively.
• Despite the recent 4-week high, the overall trend for gasoline in the past year has been a significant decrease, indicating potential volatility and sensitivity to market dynamics.

03.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.0%

• Gasoline futures dropped significantly due to increased supply and concerns over demand, following a decision by OPEC+ countries to raise production levels beyond expectations.
• Trump's new tariffs also contributed to the bearish trend, fueling fears of a global trade war that could slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
• The unexpected surge in US crude inventories and a decline in gasoline stockpiles added to the downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• Overall, the combination of oversupply, trade war fears, and inventory data led to the bearish market movement in Gasoline today.

03.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.0%

• The bearish movement in Gasoline prices today can be attributed to concerns over new tariffs, which have sparked fears of a global trade war that could potentially slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
• Additionally, the unexpected surge in US crude inventories by 6.2 million barrels, coupled with a drop in gasoline demand to 8.5 million barrels per day, has added downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• The outcome of a recent meeting, where tensions over record production from Kazakhstan and calls for further output cuts persist, has also contributed to the bearish sentiment in the Gasoline market.
• Overall, the combination of trade uncertainties, supply-demand imbalances, and geopolitical tensions has led to the bearish movement in Gasoline prices today.

04.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.1%

• Gasoline prices dropped significantly to multi-week lows due to a combination of factors:
• An announcement of a larger-than-expected production increase by OPEC+, signaling oversupply in the oil market and putting downward pressure on prices.
• Concerns over a global trade war intensified by recent tariffs, which could potentially slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
• Rising US crude inventories and falling gasoline stockpiles also contributed to the bearish sentiment, indicating weaker demand for gasoline.
• The seasonal uptick in demand during the spring travel season was not enough to offset the impact of supply concerns and increased input costs for refineries, leading to the downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• Traders are closely monitoring the OPEC+ meeting outcomes and potential production adjustments to address the oversupply issue and stabilize prices in the energy market.

04.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 6.2%

• Gasoline prices decreased significantly today, reaching a 5-week low of $2.07 per gallon.
• The decline in gasoline prices can be linked to worries about higher supply following an unexpected production boost by OPEC+ nations, resulting in ample supply in the market.
• Moreover, concerns about a global trade conflict stemming from new tariffs imposed by a prominent figure have sparked worries about sluggish economic growth and decreased fuel demand, impacting gasoline prices negatively.
• The interaction of heightened supply, decreased demand, and geopolitical uncertainties has contributed to today's downward trend in gasoline prices.