Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.0% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation. Today, the market experienced a strong bearish movement.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 5.0% on Jan 17, 2025 18:20

• Natural gas futures fell over 5% to $4/MMBtu, retreating from a two-year high as forecasts pointed to milder weather in February, reducing heating demand.
• Despite the retreat, prices remain near a two-year high due to forecasts of colder weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend, which could impact gas production and pipelines, driving up heating demand.
• The significant withdrawal of 258 billion cubic feet of gas from storage for the week ending January 10, exceeding expectations, has contributed to the recent market movement.
• Gas flows to the major US LNG export facilities have hit record highs, further boosting overall demand, despite the temporary bearish movement in the market.

GAS Price Chart

GAS Technical Analysis

GAS News

US Natgas Prices Fall from 2-Year Highs

US natural gas futures fell over 5% to $4/MMBtu, retreating from a two-year high as forecasts pointed to milder weather in February. The American weather model shifted significantly warmer overnight, reducing heating degree days (HDD) by 13. Prices rose in the previous three sessions amid predictions of colder weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend, which is expected to freeze gas wells and pipes, driving up heating demand. Meanwhile, federal data showed a significant withdrawal of 258 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage for the week ending January 10, far exceeding the 150 bcf withdrawn in the same week last year and the five-year average of 128 bcf. Analysts anticipate even larger withdrawals, exceeding 200 bcf, for the weeks ending January 17 and 24 due to increased heating needs. Additionally, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export facilities have hit a record daily high, further boosting overall demand.

US Natgas Prices Ease, Set for Weekly Gain

US natural gas futures fell to $4.12/MMBtu on Friday, easing from their highest in two years, but are still up more than 3% on the week, due to predictions of severe cold weather, expected to push demand to unprecedented levels. Also, Federal data showed that utilities withdrew 258 billion cubic feet of gas from storage for the week ending January 10, a much higher figure than the 150 bcf withdrawn in the same week last year and well above the five-year average of 128 bcf. Analysts expect upcoming reports for the weeks ending January 17 and 24 to reveal even larger withdrawals, surpassing 200 bcf, due to rising heating needs. The forecasted colder-than-normal weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend could disrupt gas production and pipelines, further increasing heating demand. At the same time, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export plants have reached an all-time daily high, adding to the surge in overall demand.

US Natgas Futures Surge to Two-Year High Amid Forecasts of Record Demand and Colder Weather

US natural gas futures bounced back on Thursday, rising over 5% to reach $4.3/MMBtu, the highest in two years. This increase was driven by predictions of severe cold weather, expected to push demand to unprecedented levels, and an EIA report confirming a storage withdrawal as anticipated. Federal data showed that utilities withdrew 258 billion cubic feet of gas from storage for the week ending January 10, a much higher figure than the 150 bcf withdrawn in the same week last year and well above the five-year average of 128 bcf. Analysts expect upcoming reports for the weeks ending January 17 and 24 to reveal even larger withdrawals, surpassing 200 bcf, due to rising heating needs. The forecasted colder-than-normal weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend could disrupt gas production and pipelines, further increasing heating demand. At the same time, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export plants have reached an all-time daily high, adding to the surge in overall demand.

US Natgas Prices Ease Slightly after EIA Report

US natural gas futures dipped slightly to $4.055/MMBtu after the EIA reported a storage draw in line with expectations. Federal data showed utilities withdrew 258 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage in the week ending Jan. 10, significantly higher than the 150 bcf draw during the same week last year and well above the five-year average of 128 bcf. Analysts expect the next two reports for the weeks ending Jan. 17 and Jan. 24 to show further draws exceeding 200 bcf as heating demand surges. Despite the slight dip, natural gas prices remain near a two-year high due to forecasts of colder-than-expected weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend. The freezing conditions could reduce output by impacting gas wells and pipelines while driving heating demand to record levels. Meanwhile, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export plants have reached a daily all-time high, further boosting overall demand.

US Natgas Prices Top $4

US natural gas futures rose past $4/MMBtu, nearing their highest level since January 2023, spurred by forecasts of colder weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend. The cold snap is expected to freeze gas wells and pipes, leading to a surge in heating demand. Analysts predict utilities will withdraw over 200 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage in the next three weeks, potentially surpassing the record 994 bcf pulled in January 2022. Although storage levels are currently 7% above average, they could be depleted by month-end, dropping below the five-year average for the first time since January 2022. Additionally, US gas production has declined in January due to freeze-offs, and further freeze-offs are expected, while LNG exports have reached new highs, adding to demand.

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Natural Gas Price History

17.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas futures fell over 5% to $4/MMBtu, retreating from a two-year high as forecasts pointed to milder weather in February, reducing heating demand.
• Despite the retreat, prices remain near a two-year high due to forecasts of colder weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend, which could impact gas production and pipelines, driving up heating demand.
• The significant withdrawal of 258 billion cubic feet of gas from storage for the week ending January 10, exceeding expectations, has contributed to the recent market movement.
• Gas flows to the major US LNG export facilities have hit record highs, further boosting overall demand, despite the temporary bearish movement in the market.

06.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.3%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was primarily driven by forecasts of extreme cold weather across the central and eastern US, leading to increased heating demand and potential supply disruptions.
• Despite a smaller-than-expected storage draw, colder-than-usual weather forecasts from January 6–17 are expected to boost heating demand, supporting the upward momentum in prices.
• Rising gas flows to US LNG export plants, especially after the expiration of a Russia-Ukraine pipeline deal, also contributed to the bullish sentiment in the Natural Gas market.
• The market is closely monitoring weather patterns and storage data, with expectations of continued volatility in prices based on supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors impacting gas flows to export facilities.

08.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.5%

• Strong global demand and tight supply conditions were the main drivers behind the upward movement in Natural Gas prices.
• Factors such as supply interruptions, colder weather than usual, and increased gas flows to LNG export facilities supported the price increase.
• Price escalation was further fueled by predictions of severe cold weather in the US, the possibility of production disruptions from winter storms, and concerns regarding tightening supplies.
• Despite minor fluctuations and a storage draw below expectations as per the EIA, the overall trajectory remained bullish due to ongoing supply limitations and escalating demand.

14.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 9.2%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement despite forecasts of colder weather and higher heating demand.
• The decline in prices was driven by factors such as fewer freeze-offs, reduced flows to export facilities, and concerns about supply constraints.
• The market remains sensitive to shifts in supply and demand, with storage withdrawals expected to be substantial, potentially erasing the current surplus and driving stockpiles below the five-year average.
• The recent surge in natural gas prices to a 24-month high might have prompted profit-taking by investors, leading to the bearish movement observed today.

13.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.6%

• Natural gas prices fluctuated throughout the day, initially surging due to colder weather forecasts and rising heating demand, but later paring gains as flows to LNG export plants decreased, signaling reduced demand.
• The market movement could be attributed to the stabilization of flows to the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, coupled with forecasts of below-average temperatures across the US, which may have influenced traders to take profits after the recent price surge.
• The impact of new US sanctions on Russia's energy sector, leading to concerns about supply disruptions in the oil market, might have indirectly affected natural gas prices, contributing to the overall volatility in the commodity market.
• Despite reaching near two-year highs recently, the bearish movement today could be a result of a temporary pullback as traders reassess the supply-demand dynamics and weather forecasts in the coming weeks.

10.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.2%

• Natural gas futures surged over 6% to above $3.9/MMBtu due to forecasts of colder weather and increased heating demand, leading to a two-year high.
• Record levels of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and stabilizing production amidst easing freeze-offs also contributed to the bullish movement.
• The extreme cold weather predictions across the US, with below-normal temperatures and potential disruptions, have heightened concerns over supply tightening, pushing prices higher.
• Rising gas flows to LNG export plants, driven by global demand and Europe's shift away from Russian pipeline supplies, have further supported the upward momentum in natural gas prices.

15.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.2%

• Colder weather forecasts and increasing heating demand led to a bullish movement in Natural Gas prices, with potential record withdrawals from storage.
• Speculators bolstering their long positions and expectations of significant withdrawals in storage reports fueled the price surge.
• Despite periodic retreats, the overall trend remains bullish due to ongoing cold weather predictions and concerns about supply constraints.
• Freeze-offs impacting production, reduced flows to LNG export facilities, and geopolitical events affecting oil prices were also factors contributing to the upward momentum of Natural Gas prices.

13.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas prices have been on a bullish trend, reaching multi-month highs due to colder weather forecasts and increased heating demand.
• The surge in prices was also supported by disruptions in supply, strong global demand, and rising LNG exports, especially driven by Europe's shift away from Russian pipeline supplies.
• The consecutive draws in inventories and production disruptions due to cold weather have added to the upward pressure on prices.
• Overall, the bearish movement today could be a result of profit-taking by traders after the recent significant price gains, as well as potential short-term market corrections.

13.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 7.4%

• Despite forecasts for colder weather and increased heating demand, US natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement, dropping from a two-year high. This can be attributed to supply constraints, including freeze-offs affecting production and reduced flows to export facilities like Freeport LNG in Texas.
• The stabilization of natural gas prices around $4.0/MMBtu after an initial surge was influenced by fewer freeze-offs and a decline in gas flows to the Freeport LNG plant, signaling reduced demand. However, prices remain near two-year highs due to ongoing cold weather forecasts.
• The recent surge in natural gas prices to exceed $4.1/MMBtu, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains, was driven by colder weather forecasts and rising heating demand. Additionally, record levels of LNG exports and increased oil prices due to US sanctions on Russia's energy sector added upward pressure on prices.
• Despite hitting a 24-month high and approaching another two-year high, natural gas prices have been fluctuating significantly in response to weather patterns, supply disruptions, and geopolitical events, showcasing the volatility of the market.

09.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

• Natural gas prices surged above $3.7/MMBtu due to disruptions in supply and robust global demand, driven by colder-than-normal weather in the US and rising gas flows to LNG export plants.
• The extreme cold weather forecasted to persist through January, causing production disruptions and lowering stockpiles, has heightened concerns over further supply tightening, pushing prices higher.
• Despite some fluctuations and a smaller-than-expected storage draw, natural gas prices remain on an upward trajectory, supported by increased heating demand and expectations of continued gas flows to LNG export plants.
• The market movement reflects a delicate balance between supply constraints from winter storms and production disruptions against rising overall output and LNG exports, with weather forecasts playing a significant role in shaping price movements.

16.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

• Natural gas futures surged above $4/MMBtu, nearing the highest levels since January 2023, driven by forecasts of colder weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend, expected to increase heating demand significantly.
• The potential freeze-offs in gas wells and pipelines, along with expectations of utilities withdrawing over 200 billion cubic feet of gas from storage in the next few weeks, have contributed to the bullish momentum.
• The decline in gas flows to the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas and the reduction in gas curtailments due to freezing wells have also played a role in pushing prices higher, despite the market experiencing some losses in the past few days.
• With colder-than-normal temperatures expected to persist through late January and concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical events, the natural gas market remains highly sensitive to shifts in supply and demand, keeping prices elevated.

17.00.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.2%

• Natural Gas futures surged to a two-year high of $4.3/MMBtu driven by forecasts of record demand and colder weather, leading to increased heating needs and higher withdrawals from storage.
• Despite a slight dip in prices to $4.055/MMBtu after a report, the market remains near its two-year high due to expectations of colder-than-expected weather and rising LNG exports.
• Prices topping $4/MMBtu, nearing levels not seen since January 2023, were influenced by predictions of freezing conditions disrupting production, surging heating demand, and potential record withdrawals from storage.
• Even as prices held near $3.95/MMBtu, speculators increased long positions, anticipating significant withdrawals from inventories that could eliminate the storage surplus and drop stockpiles below the five-year average by month-end.