Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.3% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation. Its prices are influenced by factors such as supply, demand, weather conditions, and storage levels.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 5.3% on Jun 30, 2025 14:10

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement today, dropping to a 5-week low.
• The market movement can be attributed to rising production levels, larger-than-expected storage builds, and a decline in gas flows to US LNG export terminals.
• Despite forecasts for continued hot weather, the easing of extreme temperatures and increased supply have put downward pressure on prices.
• The recent trend of above-average storage injections and the overall bearish sentiment in the market have contributed to the decline in natural gas prices.

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US Natgas Prices Fall on Monday

US natural gas futures fell over 5% to $3.5/MMBtu on Monday, reversing part of last session’s 6% rally, amid rising production and forecasts for less extreme heat. Although above-normal temperatures are expected across the Lower 48 states through at least July 12, meteorologists say a return to last week’s peak heat is unlikely. On the supply side, output averaged 105.6 bcfd in June, up slightly from May’s 105.2 bcfd, but still below March’s record 106.3 bcfd, with spring maintenance now largely over. Meanwhile, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export facilities averaged 14.2 bcfd in June—lower than May’s 15 bcfd and April’s 16 bcfd record—though slightly improved as some plants resumed operations. Analysts expect smaller storage injections this week after ten weeks of above-average builds, as power generators burned more gas during the recent heatwave to meet air conditioning demand.

US Natgas Prices Snap 5-Day Losing Streak

US natural gas futures jumped about 5% to $3.7/MMBtu on Friday, snapping a five-day losing streak, as LNG export activity started to recover. Gas flows to the eight major US LNG plants averaged 14.2 bcfd in June, still below May’s 15 bcfd and April’s record 16 bcfd, but slightly higher than earlier in the month as some plants resumed operations after maintenance. Also, forecasters expect hotter-than-normal weather across the Lower 48 states through at least July 12, although temperatures likely won’t return to this week’s extreme highs. Supply-wise, gas output averaged 105.6 bcfd in June, up from 105.2 bcfd in May, but still below March’s record of 106.3 bcfd, mainly due to earlier spring pipeline maintenance. Meanwhile, after ten straight weeks of above-average injections into storage, analysts now expect smaller additions this week as utilities used more gas for power generation during the recent heat wave.

US Natgas Prices Fall to 5-Week Low

US natural gas futures fell toward $3.42/MMBtu, the lowest in five weeks, pressured by rising production and a larger-than-expected storage build. According to the EIA, US utilities added 96 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ending June 20, marking the 10th consecutive week of above-average injections. Average output in the Lower 48 states increased to 105.5 bcfd in June, up from 105.2 bcfd in May, supporting ample supply. Despite forecasts for continued hotter-than-normal weather over the next two weeks, temperatures are expected to ease from this week’s peak heat. Additionally, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export terminals have declined to 14.1 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May.

Natural gas is down by 5.25%

Natural gas decreased 5.25% to 3.3514 USD/MMBtu

Natural gas Hits 5-week Low

Natural gas decreased to a 5-week low of 3.44 USD/MMBtu. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural gas lost 8.02%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 25.46%.

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Natural Gas Price History

18.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• Natural gas futures surged to a 3-month high of $3.87/MMBtu due to hotter-than-normal July weather and rebounding LNG exports, driving up demand.
• Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly strikes on gas facilities, raised concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies, contributing to the bullish movement.
• Despite stable US natural gas fundamentals and improved storage levels, the rapid growth in LNG exports and forecasts of hotter-than-normal temperatures in the US are fueling worries about tightening supply and upward price pressure.
• Lower production levels, rising LNG demand post-maintenance, and expectations of increased cooling demand due to warmer weather further supported the bullish trend in natural gas prices.

23.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement today, dropping by 5% to $3.8807 USD/MMBtu.
• The decline in prices can be attributed to the market reacting to US natural gas futures trading around $3.9/MMBtu after a recent rise, as well as concerns over potential LNG supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
• Despite the drop, natural gas prices had been on track for a 10% weekly gain, driven by forecasts of a major heatwave across the US increasing demand for air conditioning and power generation.
• The request for a 40-month extension by Freeport LNG to complete its Train 4 expansion may have also contributed to market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and leading to the bearish movement in prices.

28.04.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 8.5%

• Natural gas futures rose to a one-week high of $3.40/MMBtu due to lower output, higher expected demand, and forecasts of hotter weather, leading to increased gas consumption for air conditioning.
• The bullish movement was supported by a decrease in gas flows to U.S. LNG export plants, maintenance at key facilities like Cameron, Corpus Christi, Sabine Pass, and Freeport, and a drop in domestic output due to pipeline maintenance.
• Despite expectations of a second weekly loss and larger-than-expected storage builds, the anticipation of rising summer temperatures in June driving up demand provided support to natural gas prices.
• Mild weather conditions limiting heating and cooling demand led to larger storage builds, but the outlook for heat-driven demand rebound in mid-to-late June is expected to maintain price support for natural gas.

02.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.5%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bullish movement due to a combination of factors:
• Lower output in the Lower 48 states in May, attributed to maintenance work on pipelines like Kinder Morgan’s Permian Highway, contributed to reduced supply, supporting prices.
• Forecasts for hotter weather and above-normal temperatures through mid-June increased demand for natural gas for air conditioning, further boosting prices.
• Despite lower gas flows to U.S. LNG export plants in May compared to April, mainly due to maintenance at facilities like Cameron, Corpus Christi, Sabine Pass, and Freeport, the overall market sentiment remained positive.
• The expectation of more maintenance at LNG facilities, such as Sabine Pass, in June could potentially impact supply levels and prices in the near term.

02.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• Natural gas futures surged by 7% to $3.69/MMBtu due to rising demand, lower output, and a broader energy market rally, supported by warmer-than-normal temperature forecasts boosting air conditioning demand.
• The drop in US natural gas futures to $3.5/MMBtu was influenced by reduced demand and lower gas flows to LNG export plants, as maintenance and outages at facilities like Cameron, Corpus Christi, and Sabine Pass limited flows.
• The rise to a 1-week high of $3.40/MMBtu was driven by lower output, higher expected demand, and forecasts for hotter weather, with gas flows to US LNG export plants dropping due to maintenance at facilities like Cameron, Corpus Christi, Sabine Pass, and Freeport.

30.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.3%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement today, dropping to a 5-week low.
• The market movement can be attributed to rising production levels, larger-than-expected storage builds, and a decline in gas flows to US LNG export terminals.
• Despite forecasts for continued hot weather, the easing of extreme temperatures and increased supply have put downward pressure on prices.
• The recent trend of above-average storage injections and the overall bearish sentiment in the market have contributed to the decline in natural gas prices.

26.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 6.0%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement due to:
• Rising production levels and forecasts for an easing heat wave, leading to decreased demand.
• Decrease in gas flows to US LNG export plants due to seasonal maintenance.
• Market concerns easing with a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, reducing tensions in the energy-rich Middle East.
• Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions, such as the anticipation of Iran's response to Washington's strike on its nuclear sites, also contributed to the market volatility.
• The overall market sentiment was impacted by the combination of increased production levels, reduced demand due to weather forecasts, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a significant drop in natural gas prices.

26.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 8.2%

• Natural gas prices fell to a 5-week low of $3.42/MMBtu due to rising production and a larger-than-expected storage build, leading to ample supply in the market.
• Despite forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather, temperatures are expected to ease, reducing demand for natural gas for cooling purposes.
• Gas flows to US LNG export terminals have declined, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment in the market.
• Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions are also impacting natural gas prices, with traders monitoring Iran's response to Washington's actions and the potential for supply disruptions.

20.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas futures dropped due to concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to fears of potential disruptions in energy supplies.
• Despite warmer-than-normal weather driving up cooling demand in the short term, the overall decrease in gas output in the Lower 48 states contributed to the bearish movement.
• The market sentiment was influenced by geopolitical events and concerns about tightening supply from rapid growth in LNG exports, overshadowing the temporary increase in demand from weather conditions.

20.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas dropped by 5% to $3.8807 USD/MMBtu today.
• The market movement was influenced by an increase in supply due to maintenance at key LNG plants and slightly higher output in the Lower 48 states.
• Despite the drop, the commodity had a strong weekly gain of about 10% driven by forecasts of a major heatwave across the US, resulting in record-breaking demand for air conditioning needs.
• Geopolitical tensions, such as Israel striking key military and nuclear-related sites in Iran, also contributed to concerns over LNG supply disruptions, impacting market sentiment and contributing to the bearish movement.

27.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 7.4%

• Natural gas prices surged by about 5% to $3.7/MMBtu, breaking a five-day losing streak, as LNG export activity picked up and forecasts predicted hotter-than-normal weather across the US.
• The increase in gas flows to LNG plants and expectations of reduced injections into storage due to higher power generation demand during the recent heat wave contributed to the bullish movement in natural gas prices.
• Despite the recent price increase, the market remains cautious as rising production levels and forecasts of easing heat wave conditions could put pressure on prices in the near future.
• Overall, the bullish movement in natural gas prices today was primarily driven by a combination of improved export activity, weather forecasts, and changes in storage injections, indicating a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the market.

17.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.0%

• Today's surge in Natural Gas prices is linked to increased tensions in the Middle East, specifically due to Israel's actions targeting Iranian natural gas facilities. This has sparked concerns about potential disruptions in the region's energy supplies.
• Warmer-than-normal weather predictions across the US have boosted cooling demand for natural gas, potentially straining inventories.
• An upsurge in routine maintenance at LNG export plants has resulted in decreased gas flows and reduced LNG feedgas demand, impacting the market despite consistent production levels and storage remaining above average.
• Taken together, the blend of geopolitical tensions, weather forecasts, and maintenance operations within the natural gas sector is driving the current upward trend in prices.