Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation. The market movement today was bearish, with prices experiencing a significant drop.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 5.1% on Mar 27, 2025 7:20

• Natural gas futures fell due to record-high output and forecasts for milder weather, leading to lower demand in the coming weeks.
• The restart of an export plant in Texas and increased gas flows to LNG export facilities were not enough to offset the bearish sentiment caused by the high output and mild weather forecasts.
• Analysts suggest that the expected rise in gas stockpiles, driven by reduced demand and warmer temperatures, contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• Despite strong LNG exports and new capacity coming online at LNG plants, the market sentiment was largely influenced by the oversupply of natural gas and the anticipation of decreased demand in the near future.

GAS Price Chart

GAS Technical Analysis

GAS News

US Natgas Prices Edge Up from 3-Week Low

US natural gas futures climbed toward $3.9/MMBtu, rebounding from an over three-week low, as Freeport LNG’s Texas export plant resumed operations after a lightning strike shut it down Monday. This restart is expected to boost gas flows to LNG export facilities, which have averaged 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February. The increase comes as new units at Venture Global’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG plant in Louisiana begin service. Meanwhile, meteorologists predict above-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 states through April 9, likely reducing demand and allowing utilities to add to storage. Analysts suggest gas stockpiles may rise in March for the first time since 2012. Additionally, average gas output in the Lower 48 has climbed to 106.0 bcfd so far in March, surpassing February’s record 105.1 bcfd.

Natgas Prices Fall on High Output, Milder Weather

US natural gas futures dropped nearly 2% to around $3.80/MMBtu, hitting over three-week low due to record output and forecasts for milder weather. Despite the expected restart of Freeport LNG’s Texas export plant, prices fell as lower demand is anticipated in the coming weeks. April gas futures slid 1.9% to $3.840 per mmBtu, marking the lowest close since February 28. While gas stockpiles are projected to rise in March for only the second time in history, they remain about 8% below normal levels due to heavy withdrawals during the winter. LSEG reported that U.S. gas output rose to 106.0 bcfd in March, exceeding February’s record of 105.1 bcfd, while demand is expected to decline next week. Meanwhile, the U.S. maintained its position as the top global LNG supplier in 2023, outpacing Australia and Qatar amid rising export demand.

Natural gas Hits 5-week Low

Natural gas decreased to a 5-week low of 3.81 USD/MMBtu. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural gas lost 3.52%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 113.62%.

US Natgas Prices Fall to Over 3-Week Low

US natural gas futures dropped toward $3.90/MMBtu, the lowest in more than three weeks, pressured by record-high output and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand in the next two weeks. Gas production in the Lower 48 states climbed to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, surpassing February’s record of 105.1 bcfd. Warmer-than-normal temperatures through April 8 are expected to curb heating demand, allowing utilities to inject more gas into storage. Analysts suggest stockpiles could rise in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time on record. Meanwhile, LNG exports remain strong, with gas flows to the eight major US export terminals averaging 15.8 bcfd in March, up from February’s record of 15.6 bcfd. This increase is driven by new capacity at Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG plant in Louisiana, which is gradually coming online.

US Natgas Prices Fall after Inventory Build

US natural gas futures dropped to $4.13/MMBtu after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected inventory build. US utilities added 9 billion cubic feet of gas to storage for the week ending March 14, surpassing forecasts of 3 billion cubic feet. This marks the first stock increase since November 2024, narrowing the storage deficit. Currently, gas stocks are 26.8% lower than a year ago and 10% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, LNG exports hit a record 15.7 bcfd in March, driven by expanded operations at Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG facility. Looking ahead, temperatures are expected to stay near seasonal averages through early April. On the supply side, natural gas production in the Lower 48 states rose to 105.7 bcfd in March, exceeding February’s record of 105.1 bcfd.

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Natural Gas Price History

07.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas prices dropped today as a result of a smaller-than-expected storage draw and forecasts for milder weather conditions.
• Record production levels and increased LNG exports added to the downward pressure on prices, despite stockpiles remaining below the five-year average.
• The market sentiment was also impacted by expectations of reduced heating demand with the anticipated milder weather until March 18.
• The fluctuation in natural gas prices underlines the significance of monitoring storage levels, production rates, and weather forecasts for well-informed trading decisions.

04.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 14.1%

• Natural gas prices surged due to record LNG export flows and stronger demand forecasts, moving closer to a 25-month high.
• Despite milder weather expected, gas demand in the Lower 48 states is projected to be higher than anticipated, supported by lower stockpiles due to earlier extreme cold.
• The rebound in prices was also driven by record LNG export flows, with gas output hitting a fresh record in February, despite forecasts for milder weather reducing heating demand.
• The slight price increase was supported by record gas flows to LNG export plants and cooler weather forecasts, with gas storage withdrawals exceeding expectations, contributing to the bullish movement.

10.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas prices fell today due to a smaller-than-expected storage draw, despite record production levels and surging LNG exports.
• Forecasts for milder weather and reduced heating demand through March 18 are expected to have contributed to the decline in prices.
• The market was also influenced by trade uncertainties, supply constraints, and geopolitical tensions, making it challenging to replenish storage levels.
• Despite these pressures, gas production in the Lower 48 states has continued to rise, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting the natural gas market.

27.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas futures fell due to record-high output and forecasts for milder weather, leading to lower demand in the coming weeks.
• The restart of an export plant in Texas and increased gas flows to LNG export facilities were not enough to offset the bearish sentiment caused by the high output and mild weather forecasts.
• Analysts suggest that the expected rise in gas stockpiles, driven by reduced demand and warmer temperatures, contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• Despite strong LNG exports and new capacity coming online at LNG plants, the market sentiment was largely influenced by the oversupply of natural gas and the anticipation of decreased demand in the near future.

21.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.5%

• Natural gas prices surged to a 25-month high of $4.36/MMBtu, marking a significant bullish movement driven by several factors:
• Cold weather conditions in the US increased heating demand and froze oil and gas wells, leading to supply disruptions.
• Output fell, reaching a four-week low, while gas flows to LNG export plants hit record levels, tightening supply.
• Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures through February 22 are expected to sustain high demand for natural gas.
• The rally in gas futures, extending over seven days, pushed prices into technically overbought territory, indicating strong bullish momentum in the market.

18.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement due to near-record production levels and forecasts for milder weather in the upcoming weeks.
• Despite stronger-than-expected heating demand and robust LNG exports providing some support, the increase in production in the Lower 48 states and expectations of milder weather outweighed these factors.
• The news of potential trade measures by Canada's energy minister hinting at restricting oil exports to the U.S. could tighten supply, but the overall market sentiment was dominated by the increase in output and bearish weather forecasts.
• The fluctuating prices of natural gas were also influenced by trade tensions, with an announcement of tariff plans impacting Canadian steel and aluminum, adding to the market uncertainty.

20.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement due to a larger-than-expected inventory build, indicating an oversupply in the market.
• The increase in natural gas production in the Lower 48 states to record levels contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• Despite robust LNG exports and stronger-than-expected heating demand providing some support, the market was weighed down by forecasts of milder weather and near-record output levels.
• The weekly fall in natural gas prices was also influenced by the narrowing storage deficit, with stock levels remaining significantly lower than the previous year and below the five-year average, indicating a surplus in supply.

03.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 8.5%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was driven by record LNG export flows and stronger demand forecasts, despite milder weather expected through March 18.
• The reduced storage levels due to extreme cold earlier in the year and the record gas withdrawals contributed to the price increase.
• Despite the strong LNG exports and tight storage, warmer weather forecasts and record production levels led to some price fluctuations, with prices falling on days when milder weather was anticipated.
• The overall trend of Natural Gas prices seems to be influenced by a delicate balance between demand forecasts, production levels, LNG exports, and weather conditions, creating volatility in the market.

12.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• The bearish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to rising output levels and forecasts for milder weather, which outweighed increased demand and record LNG export flows.
• Trade tensions, such as recent announcements of plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, might have added pressure on the market sentiment.
• Despite the recent bearish movement, the overall trend for Natural Gas has been bullish, with prices hitting a 26-month high recently due to extreme weather conditions, supply constraints, record LNG exports, and geopolitical tensions.
• The market is also closely monitoring US natural gas inventories, which are expected to fall below the five-year average by the end of March, leading to a tighter supply situation and potentially supporting prices in the near term.

26.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.3%

• Today's bearish movement in Natural Gas prices can be attributed to:
• Forecasts for warmer weather reducing demand for heating purposes, leading to lower consumption.
• Record production levels and stabilizing output after freeze-offs, easing concerns about supply shortages.
• Milder conditions expected through the upcoming days, alleviating pressure on prices.
• Overall market sentiment shifting due to a combination of factors, including reduced demand and improved production levels.

26.01.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was primarily driven by colder-than-normal temperatures across the US, increasing heating demand and leading to significant withdrawals from storage.
• Supply concerns were heightened as stockpiles dropped to approximately 11% below the five-year average, while daily gas output fluctuated due to extreme cold weather conditions.
• Despite near-record production levels and forecasts of warmer-than-normal conditions ahead, the market remained bullish as traders closely monitored supply trends and weather forecasts to anticipate the next market move.
• The recent bearish movement in prices was attributed to forecasts of milder weather and stabilizing production, easing supply concerns that had previously driven prices to a 25-month high.

03.02.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.5%

• Natural gas prices surged recently due to strong LNG export demand and tightening stockpiles despite near-record production levels. This increase was catalyzed by colder-than-expected weather earlier in the year, prompting significant withdrawals from storage.
• Subsequently, prices declined as forecasts indicated warmer weather and record production, overshadowing strong LNG exports and tight storage. The combination of milder conditions and high production levels led to the price drop.
• Following the decline, prices bounced back above $4.1/MMBtu, nearing a 25-month high. This upward movement was fueled by record LNG exports and reduced storage levels attributed to cold weather and high LNG demand.
• Prices saw another increase, reaching $4/MMBtu, supported by record gas flows to LNG export plants and slightly cooler weather forecasts. The rise was influenced by heightened flows to LNG plants and a storage withdrawal.