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Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.2% Today

Morpher AI identified a bullish signal. The commodity price may continue to rise based on the momentum of the good news.

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas, a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation, experienced a strong bullish movement today. The market has been influenced by various factors such as demand forecasts, production levels, and recent weather events like Hurricane Francine impacting production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Why is Natural Gas going up?

GAS commodity is up 5.2% on Sep 17, 2024 0:35

  • Natural gas futures surged to a two-month high above $2.30/MMBtu due to reduced output caused by Hurricane Francine, leading to production cuts by producers and disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • The smaller-than-expected storage build reported by the EIA, combined with concerns over supply surplus and potential supply disruptions from Gulf Coast storms, contributed to the bullish momentum in natural gas prices.
  • Rising seasonal demand, record LNG exports, and increased adoption of natural gas in China's transportation sector have also played a role in tightening market conditions and pushing prices higher.
  • Despite US production hitting record highs, the anticipated growth in demand from various sectors is expected to further support price increases, indicating a bullish outlook for natural gas in the near term.

GAS Price Chart

GAS News

US Natgas Prices Steady Above $2.3

US natural gas futures held above $2.30/MMBtu, close to a two-month high, as investors watch demand forecasts and production levels. On Friday, US Gulf Coast energy facilities began restarting operations after assessing Hurricane Francine's impact, with ports reopening and terminals resuming acceptance of oil and LNG tankers. Meanwhile, the EIA reported a 40 bcf increase in storage for the week ending September 6, falling short of forecasts, last year's 50 bcf, and the five-year average of 67 bcf. Looking ahead, producers are expected to cut output further in late 2024 following a 40% price drop over the past two months.

US Natgas Prices Steady at 2-Month High

US natural gas futures held above $2.3/MMBtu, near a two-month high, up 3% this week, driven by higher demand forecasts and reduced output due to Hurricane Francine, which forced producers to cut back. Key factors include low production, rising exports to Mexico, and increased demand for power generation. However, the main driver is reduced gas injections into storage near the end of the storage season. The EIA reported a 40 bcf storage increase for the week ending September 6, below forecasts, last year's 50 bcf, and the five-year average of 67 bcf. Producers are expected to further reduce output in late 2024 following a 40% price drop over the past two months. Estimates indicate a nearly 50% production cut, highlighting the growing dominance of shale output over offshore Gulf of Mexico supply. About 53% of Gulf of Mexico natural gas output was shut down due to the storm, which has since been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

US Natgas Prices Near 2-Month High

US natural gas futures rose above $2.3/MMBtu, near a two-month high, after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected storage build of 40 billion cubic feet, below the 49 bcf forecast. Despite the smaller build, storage levels remain 9.6% above the five-year average, reflecting a supply surplus. Traders are also weighing the impact of Hurricane Francine, which disrupted oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm hit southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and Alabama, causing flooding, power outages, and reduced gas demand due to limited flows to LNG export facilities. Louisiana hosts three of the seven major US LNG export plants, and feedgas flows to these facilities are expected to drop further as companies pull back operations amid the storm.

Natural Gas Near 2-Month Highs

US natural gas futures climbed above $2.27 per MMBtu, nearing the two-month high of $2.275 reached on September 6th, driven by rising seasonal demand, record LNG exports, and China's growing adoption of natural gas in transportation. Despite US production reaching record highs, anticipated demand growth, particularly from power generation and industrial sectors, is set to tighten market conditions. While inventories remain slightly above average, potential supply disruptions from Gulf Coast storms and increasing export volumes could swiftly erode these stockpiles, adding further upward pressure on prices.

Natural gas Hits 8-week High

Natural gas increased to an 8-week high of 2.30 USD/MMBtu. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural gas gained 4.79%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 23.92%.

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Natural Gas Price History

13.08.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

  • Natural gas futures surged to a two-month high above $2.3/MMBtu due to a smaller-than-expected storage build, indicating a potential supply shortage.
  • The impact of Hurricane Francine disrupting oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico led to reduced gas demand and further supported the price increase.
  • Rising seasonal demand, record LNG exports, and China's increasing use of natural gas in transportation contributed to the bullish trend, despite US production hitting record highs.
  • Anticipated demand growth in power generation and industrial sectors, coupled with potential supply disruptions from Gulf Coast storms, are expected to tighten market conditions and push prices higher.

04.08.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

  • Natural Gas prices surged due to the record-high temperatures in the US Midwest, leading to increased demand for cooling and subsequently for natural gas.
  • The slowdown in LNG exports and routine maintenance at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas resulted in a decrease in pipeline deliveries, which supported domestic availability and pushed prices higher.
  • Despite a smaller-than-expected increase in natural gas storage levels, the ongoing supply surplus did not deter the bullish momentum, especially with meteorologists forecasting above-average temperatures in the coming days.

22.07.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

  • Natural gas prices experienced a strong bearish movement today, dropping over 5% to below $2.0 per MMBtu, driven by:
  • A larger-than-expected storage increase reported by a relevant organization, indicating an ongoing supply surplus.
  • Major producers reducing output and delaying projects to manage the excess supply.
  • Analysts anticipating lower consumer prices this winter due to strategic stockpiling efforts and the surplus in storage levels.
  • Despite the recent drop in prices, the market remains weak overall, with concerns about excess supply persisting despite occasional unexpected draws in inventories.

19.07.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

  • The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was primarily driven by a combination of factors:
  • Unexpected stock withdrawal: The surprising draw in inventories and the first August decline in withdrawals since 2006 led to increased demand and supported prices.
  • Decrease in production: The decrease in US gas production further tightened supply, making prices more responsive to any supply disruptions or additional heat.
  • Forecasts for hotter weather: Predictions of hotter weather later in August increased the demand for natural gas for cooling purposes, pushing prices higher.
  • Despite concerns about excess supply and high storage levels, the market sentiment turned bullish due to the unique combination of factors supporting increased demand and reduced production, leading to the surge in Natural Gas prices.

19.07.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.8%

  • Natural gas futures surged due to forecasts of intense heat across the US, expected to increase cooling demand and boost natural gas use.
  • An unexpected mid-summer storage withdrawal reported by the EIA, along with lower production levels, further supported prices.
  • Despite concerns about cooler weather and high storage levels, the bullish momentum was extended by setbacks to domestic supply and expectations of strong demand for cooling.
  • The resumption of normal capacity of LNG exports also increased competition for domestic gas buying, contributing to the bullish trend in natural gas prices.

30.07.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.8%

  • Natural gas prices surged today due to forecasts of above-average temperatures across the US until September 13, which is expected to increase demand for cooling and subsequently boost natural gas consumption.
  • The resumption of operations at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas after a brief shutdown also contributed to the bullish movement in natural gas prices.
  • Despite ongoing concerns about oversupply and high storage levels, the current market sentiment seems to be driven by short-term weather forecasts and operational updates rather than long-term supply-demand dynamics.
  • It's important to monitor how production cuts by major producers like EQT and Chesapeake Energy will impact the market in the coming months, as these measures are expected to gradually alleviate the oversupply situation.

27.07.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

  • Natural gas futures experienced a sharp decline, dropping below $2/MMBtu, marking a three-week low due to concerns of oversupply despite higher-than-expected storage builds.
  • Major producers like EQT and Coterra Energy are responding to the surplus by cutting output and delaying projects, although the impact on production will take time to materialize.
  • Despite forecasts of hotter-than-normal weather, which typically boosts gas demand, the ongoing supply surplus is outweighing these demand-side factors, leading to the price drop.
  • Analysts predict that the current surplus in storage levels, 12.6% above the five-year average, may translate into lower consumer prices for natural gas in the upcoming winter, driven by strategic stockpiling efforts and production adjustments by key players in the market.

28.07.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.9%

  • Natural gas prices surged by 6.7% to 2.0871 USD/MMBtu, indicating a bullish market sentiment.
  • Despite recent declines and hitting a four-week low due to oversupply concerns and weakening demand, the market saw a sharp reversal with a substantial price increase today.
  • The bullish movement could be attributed to a combination of factors such as strategic stockpiling efforts by major producers, potential changes in weather forecasts leading to increased demand, and market speculation on future supply-demand dynamics.
  • Investors might be reacting positively to the news of producers like EQT and Chesapeake Energy cutting back on production and delaying projects to manage oversupply, suggesting a potential rebalancing of the market in the near future.

28.07.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 6.0%

  • Natural Gas prices experienced a strong bearish movement today, hitting a four-week low, primarily driven by oversupply concerns and weakening demand.
  • The market was influenced by factors such as high storage levels, lower-than-expected demand due to cooling temperatures in the northern US, and delayed production cuts by major producers like EQT and Chesapeake Energy.
  • Despite forecasts of hotter-than-normal weather in the coming weeks, the surplus in supply and the larger-than-expected storage increase reported by an agency led to a significant drop in prices.
  • The ongoing efforts by producers to reduce output and delay projects are expected to take time to balance the market, indicating a continued bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the near term.

05.08.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.0%

  • Natural gas prices surged by 5.29% to $2.2585 USD/MMBtu, hitting a two-week high, driven by robust demand and supply concerns.
  • Record-high temperatures in the US Midwest led to increased demand for air conditioning, boosting the need for natural gas for cooling purposes.
  • Despite a slowdown in LNG exports and maintenance shutdowns at export plants, the market was supported by lower pipeline deliveries, aiding domestic availability.
  • The potential development of tropical disturbances in the Gulf region added to supply risks, contributing to the bullish sentiment in the natural gas market.

17.08.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.2%

  • Natural gas futures surged to a two-month high above $2.30/MMBtu due to reduced output caused by Hurricane Francine, leading to production cuts by producers and disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • The smaller-than-expected storage build reported by the EIA, combined with concerns over supply surplus and potential supply disruptions from Gulf Coast storms, contributed to the bullish momentum in natural gas prices.
  • Rising seasonal demand, record LNG exports, and increased adoption of natural gas in China's transportation sector have also played a role in tightening market conditions and pushing prices higher.
  • Despite US production hitting record highs, the anticipated growth in demand from various sectors is expected to further support price increases, indicating a bullish outlook for natural gas in the near term.

10.08.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

  • Natural gas futures surged by 5.29% to $2.2585 per MMBtu, reaching a two-week high, driven by robust demand and supply concerns.
  • The incoming storm in Louisiana, expected to disrupt LNG exports and cause power outages, contributed to a 4% drop in US natural gas futures earlier in the day.
  • Record-high temperatures in the US Midwest led to increased demand for air conditioning, further supporting natural gas prices.
  • Despite production cuts and an oversupply after a mild winter, the market remains sensitive to weather-related disruptions and supply risks, as highlighted by the potential cyclone threat in the Gulf region affecting LNG shipments.
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Disclaimer
Morpher is not liable for the content of the AI investment insights. Like most GPT-powered tools, these summaries may contain AI hallucinations and inaccurate information. Morpher is not presenting you with any investment advice. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. These summaries do not constitute investment advice.