Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.0% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation, with its prices highly influenced by supply and demand dynamics as well as weather conditions.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 5.0% on Oct 23, 2025 23:05

• Natural Gas prices experienced a bearish movement today due to a larger-than-expected storage build, indicating ample supply in the market.
• Despite a recent drop in production and strong demand from LNG export plants, the surplus in storage levels, currently 4.5% above the five-year average, continues to weigh on prices.
• Warmer-than-normal weather forecasts limiting heating demand and the ongoing trend of high storage levels are likely to keep natural gas prices under pressure in the near term.
• The rebound in prices seen in the past week was not sustained, as the overall market sentiment remains bearish due to the combination of mild weather conditions and robust storage levels.

GAS Price Chart

GAS Technical Analysis

GAS News

US Natgas Prices Fall on Larger-than-Normal Storage Build

US natural gas futures dropped over 2% to under $3.4/MMBtu, pressured by a larger-than-expected weekly storage report. For the week ended October 17, the EIA reported an 87 billion cubic feet (bcf) injection, surpassing market forecasts of 83 bcf. This build was driven by milder weather and was above both last year's 79 bcf increase and the five-year average of 77 bcf. Consequently, total inventories are now 0.9% higher than a year ago and 4.5% above the five-year average, indicating ample supply. While record output earlier this year enabled strong storage injections, recent data shows a slight dip in production. Conversely, demand from LNG export plants has risen to a new monthly high. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country would remain mostly near-normal through November 7.

US Natgas Prices Rise by Over 5%

US natural gas futures climbed nearly 5% to above $3.16/MMBtu on Monday, rebounding after two weeks of losses as output declined. Data from LSEG showed production in the Lower 48 states averaged 106.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record 108 bcfd in August. At the same time, gas flows to US LNG export terminals rose to 16.4 bcfd, up from 15.7 bcfd last month and close to record highs, signaling strong export demand. However, earlier record output has kept storage levels around 4% above the five-year average, providing a buffer against potential supply shocks. Weather forecasts remain warmer than normal through early November, which should limit heating demand more than it boosts air-conditioning use, likely keeping overall gas consumption subdued.

US Natgas Prices Rebound, Still Dow for the Second Week

US natural gas futures rose 2% to $2.99/MMBtu on Friday but were still set for a second straight weekly loss, near a three-week low of $2.927 hit in the previous session. Prices were pressured by mild weather forecasts and ample storage, despite a drop in output and near-record LNG exports. Data from LSEG showed average gas production in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.6 bcfd in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record 108 bcfd in August. Earlier high output allowed companies to build inventories, leaving storage levels about 4% above the five-year average. Forecasters expect warmer-than-normal weather through early November, which will cut heating demand more than it boosts cooling needs, keeping overall gas use low. Meanwhile, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export terminals hit 16.4 bcfd, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and close to a record, highlighting strong global demand even as domestic consumption softens.

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Natural Gas Price History

10.09.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas futures fell to a two-week low due to ample storage levels and forecasts for mild weather, limiting heating and cooling demand.
• Record-high production earlier this year allowed for larger-than-usual injections into storage, leaving inventories about 4-5% above the seasonal average.
• Despite some fluctuations, gas flows to US LNG terminals remained strong, indicating continued export demand.
• The market movement was primarily driven by a larger-than-expected storage build reported, along with forecasts for near-normal weather conditions in the coming weeks.

10.09.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Today, Natural Gas experienced a strong bearish movement due to the following reasons:
• A larger-than-expected storage build reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration led to a decrease in prices, indicating an oversupply in the market.
• Despite record production levels earlier this year, storage levels remain above the seasonal norm by about 5%, putting downward pressure on prices.
• Weather forecasts suggesting mostly near-normal conditions and warmer-than-usual weather in the coming weeks are expected to limit heating demand, further contributing to the bearish sentiment in the market.
• The decline in output in the Lower 48 states and reduced intake at LNG export facilities also played a role in the price drop, reflecting a decrease in demand for natural gas.

02.09.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 6.5%

• Natural Gas prices surged to a 10-week high, driven by lower production levels in the Lower 48 and supply concerns.
• The market was supported by reduced LNG feedgas flows and expectations of warmer-than-usual weather, impacting demand.
• Despite the potential oversupply risk from new LNG projects globally, strong domestic demand from various sectors could provide price support.
• Overall, the bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was fueled by a combination of supply constraints, storage levels, and weather forecasts, indicating a complex interplay of factors influencing the market.

20.09.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.2%

• Natural Gas prices surged over 5% today, breaking a two-week losing streak, driven by a decrease in output levels in the Lower 48 states and a rise in gas flows to US LNG export terminals.
• Despite record-high storage levels and warmer weather forecasts limiting overall consumption, the strong export demand for US natural gas contributed to the bullish movement.
• The market movement reflects a delicate balance between supply, demand, and global export trends, showcasing the intricate interplay of factors influencing Natural Gas prices.

25.08.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 12.2%

• Natural gas prices experienced a strong bullish movement despite hitting a 4-week low recently.
• The decrease in prices was primarily due to abundant gas in storage and forecasts for milder weather reducing near-term demand.
• Record production earlier this year led to higher-than-usual storage injections, contributing to the drop in prices.
• Despite the recent decrease in prices, the market saw a bullish movement today, possibly influenced by factors such as a slight fall in output and easing LNG exports, coupled with forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather ahead.

26.08.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 12.0%

• Natural gas prices surged to a 9-week high of 3.22 USD/MMBtu, marking a significant increase over the past month and year. This bullish movement can be attributed to:
• Strong demand for natural gas due to colder weather forecasts, increasing the need for heating.
• Lower-than-expected storage levels, indicating a potential supply crunch in the near future.
• Geopolitical tensions affecting gas production or transportation routes, leading to supply disruptions.
• Despite the recent increase, natural gas prices might face downward pressure in the near term due to:
• Abundant gas in storage and forecasts for milder weather reducing immediate demand.
• Record production levels earlier this year contributing to higher storage injections and surplus inventories.
• The slight decline in output and LNG exports, signaling a potential oversupply situation in the market.

18.08.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• US natural gas prices rose to a one-week high due to a decrease in output, which could have initially signaled a bullish trend.
• However, gains were limited by subdued demand forecasts, ample storage, and stagnant LNG exports, leading to a bearish market movement.
• The maintenance shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway's Cove Point plant and the easing of LNG feedgas flows also contributed to the overall downward pressure on natural gas prices.
• The market sentiment seems to be influenced by a delicate balance between production levels, demand outlook, and infrastructure maintenance, resulting in the bearish movement witnessed today.

18.08.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas prices plummeted by 5.01% to $2.9447/MMBtu due to a larger-than-expected storage build, indicating an oversupply in the market.
• The decrease in prices was also influenced by mild weather conditions reducing both heating and cooling demand, leading to higher storage injections.
• Despite a temporary rise earlier in the week due to a decline in production, gains were limited by muted demand forecasts, ample storage levels, and stagnant LNG exports.
• The bearish trend was further reinforced by the news of a maintenance shutdown at Berkshire Hathaway's Cove Point plant, impacting LNG feedgas flows and overall market sentiment.

23.09.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural Gas prices experienced a bearish movement today due to a larger-than-expected storage build, indicating ample supply in the market.
• Despite a recent drop in production and strong demand from LNG export plants, the surplus in storage levels, currently 4.5% above the five-year average, continues to weigh on prices.
• Warmer-than-normal weather forecasts limiting heating demand and the ongoing trend of high storage levels are likely to keep natural gas prices under pressure in the near term.
• The rebound in prices seen in the past week was not sustained, as the overall market sentiment remains bearish due to the combination of mild weather conditions and robust storage levels.

03.09.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.7%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement due to the following reasons:
• Despite bullish indications of lower-than-expected builds in storage, the market faced uncertainty due to conflicting signals from production, exports, and weather.
• A temporary halt in the price increase and a subsequent decline from a ten-week high were driven by forecasts of warmer weather and decreased demand, affecting market sentiment.
• Reduced LNG feedgas flows and decreased activity at major facilities contributed to the downward pressure on prices, signaling potential disruptions in supply.
• Worries about oversupply in global LNG markets, which could impact US exporters and push prices down, added to the prevailing bearish sentiment.

30.08.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.2%

• Natural gas prices surged to a 10-week high of $3.20/MMBtu due to lower production levels in the Lower 48, leading to supply concerns and supporting prices.
• Despite a slight dip to $3.16/MMBtu on Friday, prices were still on track for a weekly gain of nearly 10%, driven by the ongoing supply constraints and above-normal warmth forecasts.
• The increase in prices can be attributed to the combination of reduced production, high storage levels, and strong domestic demand, with the potential for oversupply from new global LNG projects posing a future risk.

08.09.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement today, dropping by 5% to $3.3232/MMBtu.
• The decline in prices can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a decrease in daily output, larger-than-usual injections into storage, and forecasts of mostly average weather conditions limiting heating demand.
• Additionally, the broader energy market sentiment, influenced by factors like OPEC+'s output decisions and EIA storage reports, also played a role in the market movement.
• Despite the recent drop, natural gas prices had been on track for a second weekly gain, indicating some volatility and mixed sentiments in the market.