Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.3% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation, with its price highly influenced by supply and demand dynamics as well as weather conditions.

Why is Natural Gas going up?

GAS commodity is up 5.3% on Nov 5, 2024 10:45

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was driven by an impending hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and forecasts for stronger-than-expected demand, leading to concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• The retreat from a 4-month high was caused by shifting perceptions on supply risks from the Middle East, triggering declines in futures prices amid evidence of ample domestic supply and expectations of more moderate cold weather, which limited demand for gas-intensive heating.
• The temporary shutdown at Freeport impacting U.S. LNG exports and the increase in production projected for late 2024 and 2025 also played a role in the market movement, highlighting the importance of supply-side factors in influencing Natural Gas prices.

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US Natgas Prices Approach $2.8/MMBtu

US natural gas futures rose to near $2.8/MMBtu, influenced by an impending hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and forecasts for stronger-than-expected demand. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Tropical Depression 18 will strengthen into a hurricane as it moves toward Cuba and the Gulf, potentially weakening to a tropical storm before nearing Louisiana by the weekend. Looking ahead, while temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average until mid-November, cooler weather is anticipated later in the month. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports decreased to 12.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) from October’s 13.1 bcfd, primarily due to a temporary shutdown at Freeport. On the supply side, production is projected to increase in late 2024 and into 2025 to support new LNG facilities, including Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant and Cheniere Energy’s expansion in Texas.

Natural Gas Retreats from 4-Month High

US natural gas futures fell to below $2.75/MMBtu, declining sharply from the over four-month-high of $3.1 amid lower risk premiums and evidence of ample domestic supply. Shifting perceptions on supply risks from the Middle East triggered declines in natural gas futures among major trading hubs, largely due to Israel’s choice of striking Iran’s oil infrastructure and Tehran’s refrain from further retaliation so far. This compounded data from Wood Mackenzie suggesting that US production rose to 103 bcf per day in late October, near record highs. This was in line with the ample increase in reserves during the fourth week of the month, with EIA data pointing to a 78 bcf build. In the meantime, expectations of more moderate cold weather in the Lower 48 states limited demand for gas-intensive heating, also pressuring prices.

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Natural Gas Price History

05.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.3%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was driven by an impending hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and forecasts for stronger-than-expected demand, leading to concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• The retreat from a 4-month high was caused by shifting perceptions on supply risks from the Middle East, triggering declines in futures prices amid evidence of ample domestic supply and expectations of more moderate cold weather, which limited demand for gas-intensive heating.
• The temporary shutdown at Freeport impacting U.S. LNG exports and the increase in production projected for late 2024 and 2025 also played a role in the market movement, highlighting the importance of supply-side factors in influencing Natural Gas prices.

28.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• The drop in Natural Gas prices is linked to expectations of mild weather, which could decrease heating demand. Consequently, utilities are expected to store more gas than usual at this time of year.
• A decrease in gas flows to LNG export terminals and the possibility of reduced drilling activities leading to a potential output decline in 2024 may have also influenced the price decrease.
• The volatile Natural Gas prices, influenced by weather predictions and supply-side factors, demonstrate the market's susceptibility to external elements. This underscores the importance for traders to closely follow such developments to make well-informed decisions.

28.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 7.8%

• Natural gas futures dropped significantly due to forecasts of warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 states, reducing heating demand and allowing utilities to inject more gas into storage.
• The decrease in prices was also influenced by the expectation of below-average LNG feedgas supply levels for the next few weeks, as some facilities undergo maintenance in Louisiana.
• Analysts projecting a decline in average natural gas output in 2024 for the first time since 2020 further added to the bearish sentiment in the market.
• Overall, the bearish movement can be attributed to a combination of reduced heating demand, increased storage levels, and maintenance activities impacting supply levels in the natural gas market.

21.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.2%

• Natural gas prices surged due to forecasts of cooler weather increasing heating demand, despite overall warmer-than-normal temperatures predicted.
• Lower production levels and reduced drilling activities by producers also contributed to the price increase.
• The federal report showing smaller-than-usual storage additions and higher demand forecasts for the upcoming week further supported the bullish movement.
• Despite concerns about mild weather limiting heating demand, the market reacted positively to the anticipated increase in demand and lower production levels, leading to the price rebound.

24.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.0%

• Natural gas prices increased to above $2.3/MMBtu today.
• The rise in prices was triggered by forecasts of cooler weather boosting heating demand, lower production levels, and expectations of increased LNG exports.
• Despite near-term warmer temperatures, the outlook of cooler weather ahead is likely to drive up heating demand, leading to the price uptick.
• Analysts are forecasting a potential decline in gas production by 2024, citing reduced drilling activities, which could further bolster prices down the line.

27.08.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas prices surged to a 3-month high due to a smaller-than-expected storage increase, ongoing production cuts, and forecasts of higher demand over the next two weeks.
• Despite the approaching Hurricane Helene, which is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane, Gulf Coast LNG facilities remain unaffected, sustaining strong demand.
• The market saw a significant increase of 10.83% to $2.8272/MMBtu, reaching a 12-week high, driven by concerns over lower supply and steady demand expectations.
• The overall bullish sentiment was supported by reduced output from some Gulf Coast producers and a decline in gas production to 102.0 bcfd in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.

27.08.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.8%

• Natural gas futures surged to a 3-month high due to Hurricane Helene impacting the Southeast, leading to production cuts and power outages, boosting demand.
• The smaller-than-expected storage increase and ongoing production cuts contributed to the steady prices near the high, despite the approaching storm.
• Revised forecasts predicting higher demand and production cuts ahead of Hurricane Helene drove prices up further, with the storm expected to miss LNG export facilities, maintaining strong demand.
• The 10.83% increase in natural gas prices and hitting a 12-week high can be attributed to the combination of reduced output from Gulf Coast producers, strong demand from LNG plants, and the potential impact of Hurricane Helene on supply and demand dynamics.

29.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 14.7%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to:
• Forecasts for cooler weather and increased heating demand over the next two weeks, driving up prices.
• Rising global gas prices expected to boost U.S. LNG exports, creating a positive outlook for the market.
• Expectations of utilities adding less gas to storage than usual, indicating a tightening supply situation.
• Overall, the market sentiment seems to be bullish due to a combination of weather forecasts and supply-demand dynamics favoring higher prices.

23.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.8%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bullish movement today, rebounding from recent lows, due to forecasts of cooler weather increasing heating demand.
• The anticipation of higher demand next week, along with a federal report showing smaller-than-usual storage additions, contributed to the price increase.
• Despite warmer-than-normal weather forecasts in the short term, the expected cooler conditions in the coming week are likely to drive up demand for heating, leading to a rise in gas prices.
• The decrease in gas stocks added to storage, coupled with producers reducing drilling activities, also supported the bullish movement in natural gas prices.

15.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas futures fell as evidence of strong supply and lower demand due to hurricanes in the US Southeast weighed on prices.
• The increase in natural gas storages and the reduced power demand from gas generators following hurricanes contributed to the bearish pressure.
• The fallout of Hurricane Milton in Florida's Gulf Coast, leading to electricity cuts and reduced power demand, added to the downward trend in prices.
• Overall, the combination of increased supply and decreased demand due to weather-related factors drove natural gas prices lower today.

18.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas recorded a bearish movement today, reaching a 4-week low of $2.34/MMBtu, signaling a downward trend in its price.
• Despite a brief recovery from the low point, market sentiment remained pessimistic due to worries about elevated gas stocks and forecasts of warmer weather impacting demand.
• Reports from federal sources showing smaller-than-average storage increases and higher LNG feedgas levels contributed to the downward pressure on natural gas prices.
• These various factors created a bearish outlook for natural gas, as market participants evaluated the effects of supply levels and demand forecasts on the commodity's price direction.

31.09.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas futures saw a significant drop today, moving sharply lower from recent highs.
• The decline is attributed to changing views on supply risks from the Middle East, particularly due to Israel's actions targeting Iran's oil infrastructure and Tehran's decision not to retaliate further, which has eased concerns about supply disruptions.
• Warmer weather forecasts in the US are leading to reduced heating demand, allowing for increased gas storage injections and putting further pressure on prices.
• Maintenance work at LNG facilities in Louisiana, such as Cheniere Energy and Cameron LNG, is projected to limit feedgas supply below peak levels, adding to the overall bearish sentiment in the natural gas market.