Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.5% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation, with its prices highly influenced by weather forecasts, production levels, and export demand. Today, the market experienced a strong bullish movement.

Why is Natural Gas going up?

GAS commodity is up 5.5% on Feb 12, 2026 12:40

• Natural gas futures rose due to near-record LNG export flows boosting demand, despite warmer weather forecasts reducing heating demand.
• The recent increase in drilling activity in the Haynesville Shale raised concerns about future supply, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
• Colder weather in the US Northeast and higher flows to LNG terminals supported prices, aligning with increased natural gas benchmarks in Europe and Asia due to cold weather, driving US gas consumers to compete with higher overseas demand.
• Despite the overall bullish movement, the market remains volatile, with prices fluctuating due to factors like weather patterns, production levels, and export demands.

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GAS Technical Analysis

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US Natgas Prices Little Changed

US natural gas futures hovered around $3.1 per MMBtu, near the lowest since January 16, as warmer weather forecasts and rising production weighed on prices. Meteorologists expect mostly above-normal temperatures across the US through February 26, reducing heating demand after the recent extreme cold. Output in the Lower 48 states increased to around 107.5 bcfd so far in February from 106.3 bcfd in January, improving supply. A record 360 bcf storage withdrawal during the late January Arctic blast pushed inventories to around 1% below seasonal norms and likely near 6% below normal in early February. However, analysts expect mild weather in the coming weeks to narrow that deficit by early March. LNG export demand remains strong, with flows to the eight major US export plants averaging 18.5 bcfd in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and matching record levels, limiting deeper declines.

US Natgas Prices Recover from 2-Day Loss

US natural gas futures rose to $3.17 per MMBtu on Tuesday after two consecutive sessions of losses, supported by near-record LNG export flows that boosted demand. Average gas flows to the eight major US LNG export plants climbed to 18.5 bcfd so far in February from 17.8 bcfd in January, matching the monthly record set in December and tightening domestic supply. However, prices remain close to their lowest since January 16 as forecasts point to warmer weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks. Production has also increased, with Lower 48 output rising to about 107.4 bcfd so far in February from 106.3 bcfd in January. Recent Arctic weather drove a record 360 bcf storage withdrawal and pushed inventories to around 1% below normal, with continued cold likely widening the deficit to about 6% below seasonal averages. However, milder temperatures expected through late February could reduce the storage deficit by March.

US Natgas Prices Extend Fall to Over 3-Week Low

US natural gas futures slumped 6.2% to around $3.20 per MMBtu on Monday, extending losses from the previous session and reaching its lowest level in over three weeks, as markets weighed the impact of warmer weather forecasts across broad areas of the country. Above-average temperatures are expected across large swaths of the US, with the central and southern regions experiencing unseasonably warm weather in the coming days, gradually moving eastward. These milder temperatures are likely to suppress demand for heating and power generation, putting downward pressure on gas prices. Market sentiment was further weighed down by recent data from Baker Hughes, which revealed a notable increase in drilling activity in the Haynesville Shale, a major gas-producing region spanning northwest Louisiana and East Texas. The uptick in active rigs raises concerns about future supply. In early Asian trading, futures for March delivery slipped as much as 6.5% to $3.20 per million British thermal units.

Natural Gas Extends Rebound

US natural gas futures rose to over $3.5 per MMBtu on Friday, set for a fourth consecutive session of increases as higher flows to liquified natural gas terminals in the US raised the outlook of exports in the near term. Expectations of exports were aligned with the increase in natural gas benchmarks in Europe and Asia due to the cold weather across the regions, driving US gas consumers to compete with higher demand from overseas. Colder weather in the US Northeast also supported prices. Still, front month contracts were due to end the week nearly 20% down as Monday's plunge extended the period of unprecedented volatility in US natural gas prices, largely due to higher heating demand following the wave of winter storms across the US. Consequently, stocks measured by the EIA fell by a record 360 billion cubic feet last week, which left inventories 27bcf below their five-year average, compared with a 143 bcf surplus the earlier period.

Natural Gas Prices in the US Stabilize

US natural gas futures were little changed around $3.50 per MMBtu on Friday and are on track to end the week down nearly 20%, almost reversing the roughly 20% surge seen in the previous period. Traders assessed a record 360 Bcf withdrawal from US underground natural gas storage last week, which left inventories 27 Bcf below the five-year average, compared with a 143 Bcf surplus in the prior week. Meanwhile, production has begun to recover, with Lower 48 output rising to around 106.6 bcfd in early February from January levels. At the same time, mid-February weather forecasts have shifted markedly warmer particularly across the northeastern US, reducing expected heating demand following last week’s Arctic blast.

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Natural Gas Price History

04.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.3%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to the strong demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, with flows to export plants increasing and prices rising despite milder weather forecasts.
• The recent volatility in Natural Gas prices, including significant drops and rebounds, is a reflection of the market's sensitivity to weather forecasts and demand expectations.
• The impact of warmer weather outlooks on curbing heating demand, coupled with the ongoing strength in LNG export flows, has created a dynamic pricing environment for Natural Gas futures.

03.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 12.3%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement due to warmer weather forecasts across the US, leading to reduced heating demand and lower consumption expectations.
• The recent collapse in prices was triggered by milder temperatures replacing the extreme cold snap, allowing for a quick rebound in gas output as frozen wells thawed.
• Despite the price decline, LNG export flows remained strong, limiting the extent of the fall in prices despite the improved supply situation.
• The market's volatility was evident in recent weeks, with prices surging to multi-year highs before the shift in weather forecasts and the return of production from frozen wells contributed to the significant drop in prices.

05.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.6%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to:
• Traders awaiting the weekly storage data and expecting heavy withdrawals during the recent Arctic blast to tighten supply.
• Strong LNG demand, with gas flows to US export plants remaining high, reflecting robust global demand for US gas.
• Weather forecasts indicating colder temperatures in the Northeast, maintaining demand for heating.
• The recent bearish market movements were caused by:
• Warmer weather outlooks reducing heating demand and curbing power generation needs.
• Forecasts of milder conditions across the US, leading to a decrease in natural gas consumption.
• The volatility in Natural Gas prices can be seen as a result of conflicting weather forecasts, supply disruptions, and fluctuations in LNG export flows, creating uncertainty in the market.
• Overall, the market movement of Natural Gas today reflects the delicate balance between supply, demand, and weather conditions, showcasing the commodity's sensitivity to external factors.

06.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

• Natural Gas prices surged due to a combination of factors:
• A smaller-than-expected storage draw eased concerns of tight supply, leading to increased confidence in the market.
• Strong LNG demand and higher flows to export terminals supported prices, indicating robust global demand for US gas.
• Warmer weather forecasts reduced heating demand concerns, balancing out the market dynamics.
• The recent cold snap likely resulted in heavy storage withdrawals, shifting inventories from above seasonal norms to slightly below average, further tightening supply.

27.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 13.2%

• Natural gas futures experienced a strong bearish movement today, dropping over 7% to $6.27 per MMBtu after a significant rally in the previous sessions.
• Warmer forecasts and the return of some frozen wells to service contributed to the price decline, as well as projections of slightly less severe cold in certain regions.
• Despite the pullback, supply risks remain elevated with ongoing weather-driven supply disruptions and power emergencies being declared in certain regions, highlighting the volatility and sensitivity of the natural gas market to external factors.
• The market will continue to monitor production disruptions and weather patterns closely, as prolonged outages could potentially lead to further price fluctuations in the future.

27.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 7.1%

• Natural gas futures surged over 17% to above $6 per MMBtu, reaching levels not seen since December 2022, driven by a severe winter storm disrupting supply and boosting heating demand.
• The extreme cold weather knocked offline nearly 10% of US natural gas production, leading to concerns about prolonged production disruptions and further price increases.
• Despite the significant rally, prices pulled back slightly as traders took profits, highlighting the volatility in the market influenced by ongoing weather-driven supply disruptions and elevated supply risks.
• The market remains focused on how long production outages will last, with authorities taking measures to ensure adequate natural gas supplies for residential heating and power generation amidst the frigid conditions.

28.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 7.2%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement due to warmer weather forecasts and the return of some frozen wells, easing supply concerns.
• The unexpected rally in prices over the previous sessions led traders to take profits despite ongoing weather-driven supply disruptions, causing a significant pullback in prices.
• The increase in output in the Lower 48 and the recovery of LNG feedgas flows contributed to the market movement, indicating improving supply conditions.
• Despite the price decrease, freezing temperatures across the US continue to impact natural gas production and supply, highlighting the ongoing supply risks in the market.

30.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 14.1%

• Natural gas prices surged by 5.04% to $3.92 per MMBtu, driven by a combination of factors:
• 1. Increased flows to LNG export plants, including the return of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG in Texas, boosting demand and tightening market conditions.
• 2. Despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand, colder than normal conditions expected through mid-February supported consumption expectations.
• 3. The market reacted positively to a larger than expected storage draw, stronger demand outlook, and recovering production levels, highlighting the ongoing tightness in supply despite the rebound in output from frozen wells.
• 4. The volatility in price action was influenced by mixed weather forecasts and the market's sensitivity following a historic weather-driven rally, keeping traders on edge and contributing to the bullish movement in natural gas prices.

30.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was primarily driven by a larger than expected storage draw and a stronger demand outlook, fueled by an Arctic blast that boosted heating demand.
• Colder than normal weather forecasts through mid-February supported consumption expectations, despite some fluctuations in temperature predictions causing uncertainty in demand.
• The return of some frozen wells and the gradual recovery of gas production after storm-related disruptions contributed to easing supply concerns, leading to a slight pullback in prices on days with warmer weather forecasts.
• The market's sensitivity post a historic weather-driven rally, coupled with the tight market conditions despite the modest rebound in supply, kept price action volatile, with traders closely monitoring weather patterns and production levels for further price movements.

02.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 6.6%

• Natural gas prices plunged due to forecasts of milder weather conditions across the US, dampening heating demand and leading to a 14.7% drop to $3.70 per MMBtu.
• The bearish movement was further influenced by the expectation of above-seasonal temperatures, which reduced the need for natural gas as a heating source.
• Despite the recent price drop, the market had been experiencing volatility with conflicting weather forecasts, strong government storage figures, and fluctuations in LNG export flows impacting prices.
• The market movement showcases how sensitive natural gas prices are to weather forecasts and demand outlook, highlighting the importance of monitoring these factors for trading decisions.

02.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 13.4%

• Natural gas futures faced downward pressure due to forecasts of milder weather conditions across the US, resulting in decreased heating demand.
• Anticipated above-normal temperatures are projected to lower the necessity for natural gas in residential heating and power production.
• Despite the market's bearish trend, tight conditions persist as gas flows to LNG export facilities increase and companies import gas to capitalize on higher prices, highlighting ongoing market challenges amidst recovering production levels.

12.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.5%

• Natural gas futures rose due to near-record LNG export flows boosting demand, despite warmer weather forecasts reducing heating demand.
• The recent increase in drilling activity in the Haynesville Shale raised concerns about future supply, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
• Colder weather in the US Northeast and higher flows to LNG terminals supported prices, aligning with increased natural gas benchmarks in Europe and Asia due to cold weather, driving US gas consumers to compete with higher overseas demand.
• Despite the overall bullish movement, the market remains volatile, with prices fluctuating due to factors like weather patterns, production levels, and export demands.