Brent Crude Oil ($BRENT) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.0% Today

What is Brent Crude Oil?

Brent Crude Oil, a key global oil price benchmark sourced from the North Sea, witnessed a substantial downturn in the market today.

Why is Brent Crude Oil going down?

BRENT commodity is down 5.0% on Oct 15, 2024 13:25

• Brent Crude Oil recorded a significant 5.02% decline, reaching $73.573 per barrel, influenced by the following factors:
• Concerns surrounding China's economic prospects and weakening demand dynamics impacted prices negatively, aggravated by deepening deflationary trends in China and uncertainties surrounding stimulus measures.
• Anticipated oversupply in early 2025, driven by sluggish global demand and robust supply expansion, exerted further downward pressure on prices.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly pertaining to potential reactions from Israel to Iran’s missile strike, also contributed to the bearish trend in Brent Crude Oil valuations.

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Brent Crude Oil is down by 5.02%

Brent Crude Oil decreased 5.02% to 73.573 USD/Bbl

Brent Extends Fall on China Demand Worries

Brent crude oil futures fell below $78 per barrel on Monday, accelerating its decline from the previous session, weighed down by concerns over China's economic outlook, a top crude importer. Data from the weekend showed that China's deflationary pressures intensified in September, while a press conference failed to ease concerns about downside growth risks, as the size of the stimulus package aimed at reviving the economy remains uncertain. Further pressuring prices is a projected surplus expected to emerge in early 2025, driven by weak global demand and strong supply growth. In the US, Baker Hughes data revealed that energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in four weeks on October 11. Meanwhile, lingering concerns remain about Israel's potential response to Iran's missile attack, which could target Iran's energy infrastructure.

Brent Advances for 2nd Week

Brent crude oil futures lost 0.4% to settle at $79 on Friday as investors weighed the potential supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict and the effects of Hurricane Milton on fuel demand in Florida. Still, Brent prices rose for second consecutive weekly gain, and has surged over 10% since Iran's missile attack on Israel.The rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel’s potential retaliation to Iran’s missile attack. The situation has raised concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, fueling the price surge. Hurricane Milton also contributed to short-term fuel demand in Florida, although long-term consumption could be dampened by the storm’s aftermath. On the demand side, the outlook improved after top crude importer China unveiled a draft law to promote private sector growth, aiming to boost investor confidence amid an economic slowdown.

Brent Set for 2nd Weekly Gain

Brent crude oil futures traded around $79 per barrel on Friday, poised to book its second weekly gain, driven by increasing risks of supply disruptions. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet met on Thursday to discuss the timing and response to Iran's recent missile attack, keeping markets on edge over potential retaliatory strikes on Iran's oil industry. Additionally, disruptions from Hurricane Milton further supported prices, as nearly a quarter of gas stations in Florida ran out of fuel, and 3.4 million homes and businesses lost power. On the demand side, the outlook improved after top crude importer China unveiled a draft law to promote private sector growth, aiming to boost investor confidence amid an economic slowdown. Meanwhile, traders are assessing recent US data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, with inflation coming in higher than expected and a rise in jobless claims.

Brent Rises on Growing Supply Risks

Brent crude oil futures rose toward $77 per barrel on Thursday after falling for two consecutive sessions, supported by concerns over potential supply risks. Persistent fears remain that Iran's oil industry could be affected by the conflict with Israel, while markets are closely monitoring developments related to Hurricane Milton for possible supply disruptions. However, despite these threats, there are signs of ample supply, as EIA data showed a 5.8 million barrel rise in US crude inventories, surpassing the expected 2.0 million. Further weighing on prices is a weak demand outlook, reinforced by China's recent briefing, which provided few specifics on additional stimulus measures. Additionally, the US EIA lowered its 2025 demand forecast, citing economic slowdowns in China and North America. The return of Libyan oil exports is also driving down crude prices in the North Sea and Mediterranean, as local refiners reduce purchases of non-regional crudes.

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Brent Crude Oil Price History

26.08.2024 - BRENT Commodity was down 5.3%

• The bearish movement in Brent Crude Oil today can be attributed to concerns over demand, particularly from China, despite recent monetary support measures aimed at boosting economic activity in the country.
• The stabilization of US crude inventories and the larger-than-expected drawdown reported by the EIA provided some support to prices, but ongoing worries about global demand weighed on the market sentiment.
• The easing of supply disruptions from Libya following the agreement on appointing a central bank governor also contributed to the bearish trend, as fears about reduced oil output from the region diminished.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply concerns from the US Gulf Coast due to a hurricane threat added some volatility to the market, highlighting the delicate balance between supply, demand, and geopolitical risks impacting Brent Crude Oil prices.

26.08.2024 - BRENT Commodity was down 5.1%

• Brent Crude Oil faced a downward trend, declining towards $71 per barrel due to several reasons:
• Saudi Arabia's reduction of its crude oil price target in anticipation of higher production applied downward pressure on prices.
• An agreement between Libya's conflicting factions to appoint a central bank governor alleviated concerns regarding an oil revenue crisis and potential supply disruptions.
• Lingering demand uncertainties, especially in China despite recent economic stimulus efforts, contributed to the price decline.
• Despite a larger-than-expected decrease in US crude inventories surpassing market forecasts, this supported prices to some extent but was insufficient to counterbalance the overall bearish sentiment.

04.08.2024 - BRENT Commodity was down 5.0%

• Heavy selling pressure hit Brent Crude Oil on account of expectations of heightened supply, with plans for increased production by OPEC and lower demand signals in China.
• Reports of reduced US oil consumption, the lowest since 2020, exacerbated concerns about demand, adding to the bearish trend.
• Despite supply disruptions in Libya, worries persisted over heightened supply and weakened demand from major economies such as China.
• Ongoing concerns regarding China's economic slowdown and reduced growth targets influenced market sentiment, raising worries about declining demand in Asia and contributing to the prevailing bearish movement in the Brent Crude Oil market.

01.09.2024 - BRENT Commodity was up 2.1%

• Brent Crude Oil experienced a strong bullish movement today, recovering from recent losses.
• The market movement can be attributed to a combination of factors:
• Expectations of supply disruptions due to tensions in the Middle East, particularly with escalating conflicts involving key oil-producing nations like Iran and Saudi Arabia.
• The impact of Hurricane Helene forcing Gulf of Mexico producers to cut output, leading to concerns about potential supply constraints.
• Ongoing concerns about weaker demand from China, as evidenced by continued economic struggles and contracting manufacturing and service sectors.
• Speculation surrounding OPEC's plans to increase output and potential easing of production cuts by major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia.

04.08.2024 - BRENT Commodity was down 5.1%

• Brent Crude Oil dropped towards $73 per barrel today, marking its lowest level since December 2023.
• Concerns over rising supply contributed to the market movement, with potential agreements in Libya to resume oil production, potentially adding over 500,000 barrels per day.
• OPEC's plan to increase production in the fourth quarter, alongside economic growth worries in China and the US, further impacted oil prices negatively.
• Increased supply expectations, declining factory activity in key markets, and ongoing demand uncertainties collectively led to the bearish trend in the market for Brent Crude Oil today.

02.09.2024 - BRENT Commodity was up 5.6%

• Brent Crude Oil surged over 3% to above $73.5 per barrel as Iran launched missiles at Israel, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict in the Middle East.
• The market reacted strongly to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Israel intensifying airstrikes on Hezbollah and sending ground forces into Lebanon, while also keeping an eye on Libya's plans to restart oil production after resolving internal conflicts.
• Despite the bullish movement, concerns about potential oversupply and weaker demand from China, as well as expectations of OPEC+ increasing output in December, are putting pressure on prices and limiting further gains.
• The market's volatility is a reflection of the delicate balance between geopolitical risks and supply-demand fundamentals, with traders closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and OPEC's upcoming decisions.

08.09.2024 - BRENT Commodity was down 5.2%

• Brent Crude Oil displayed a decline in price today, moving downwards from recent peaks.
• The market shift could be linked to several factors:
• Efforts by President Biden to deter attacks on Iran's oil facilities might have reduced concerns regarding supply, resulting in a modest price retraction.
• OPEC's surplus production capacity and steady global crude supplies provided confidence to the market, contributing to the downward price trend.
• Positive indicators of a robust US economy and anticipations of heightened fuel demand potentially sustained prices at a slightly lower level despite the downturn.
• Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, specifically involving Israel and Iran, persist in presenting supply risks, injecting unpredictability into the oil market.

04.09.2024 - BRENT Commodity was up 5.1%

• Brent Crude Oil surged to a four-week high above $75 per barrel, marking a strong bullish movement driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• The market movement was primarily influenced by fears of potential supply disruptions due to the conflict between Iran and Israel, with the latter vowing retaliation against Iran's actions.
• Despite concerns over supply risks, the market was tempered by factors such as OPEC's spare production capacity, stable global crude supplies, and signs of a strong US economy supporting fuel demand.
• The overall bullish sentiment was further supported by the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, underscoring the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices.

03.09.2024 - BRENT Commodity was up 5.1%

• Brent crude oil prices surged to a one-month high above $76.5 per barrel due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly after Iran's missile attack on Israel and the subsequent threat of retaliation. This situation raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply routes in the region, pushing prices higher.
• Despite the initial surge, prices retreated below $74 as US crude stockpiles increased and gasoline demand fell to a six-month low, indicating a well-supplied market. Additionally, plans to gradually increase production, easing immediate concerns about global oil availability.
• The market's reaction to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with developments in other oil-producing countries like Libya preparing to restart production, will likely continue to influence Brent crude oil prices in the near term.
• Overall, the bullish movement in Brent Crude Oil today was primarily driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, highlighting the market's sensitivity to supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.

04.05.2024 - BRENT Commodity was down 5.0%

• Brent Crude Oil experienced a strong bearish movement, dropping to a 4-month low due to concerns over higher supply and weak demand growth.
• OPEC+ decision to extend output cuts, but gradually unwinding voluntary cuts from member countries, contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Economic weakness in the US, fears of the US Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates, and uncertainties surrounding China's demand added to the negative sentiment in the oil market.
• The combination of these factors led to Brent Crude Oil hitting an 11-week low, reflecting the ongoing challenges faced by the oil market amidst a complex supply-demand landscape.

15.09.2024 - BRENT Commodity was down 5.0%

• Brent Crude Oil recorded a significant 5.02% decline, reaching $73.573 per barrel, influenced by the following factors:
• Concerns surrounding China's economic prospects and weakening demand dynamics impacted prices negatively, aggravated by deepening deflationary trends in China and uncertainties surrounding stimulus measures.
• Anticipated oversupply in early 2025, driven by sluggish global demand and robust supply expansion, exerted further downward pressure on prices.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly pertaining to potential reactions from Israel to Iran’s missile strike, also contributed to the bearish trend in Brent Crude Oil valuations.

15.09.2024 - BRENT Commodity was down 5.0%

• Today's downward shift in Brent Crude Oil prices is linked to concerns about China's economic future, including escalating deflationary pressures and uncertainties surrounding efforts to boost the economy.
• The anticipated surplus in early 2025, driven by weakened global demand and robust supply growth, has led to price declines, reflecting a pessimistic outlook in the market.
• The potential oversupply in the oil market is exacerbated by an increase in US crude inventories exceeding predictions, highlighting weak demand trends.
• Heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, coupled with potential supply disruptions from Hurricane Milton, have also contributed to the negative market sentiments, creating a challenging pricing environment for Brent Crude Oil.