Why Aren’t Altcoins Rising? What’s Holding Back the Next Rally

The crypto market in early 2025 has been turbulent. Bitcoin hit new highs, driven by institutional demand and ETF inflows, yet its rally has been far from smooth. Sharp pullbacks, uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory developments have kept traders on edge. Meanwhile, altcoins have struggled to gain traction, with Bitcoin dominance remaining near 60%, signaling that capital is still concentrated in BTC rather than riskier assets.

Historically, altcoin rallies tend to follow Bitcoin’s strength, but this cycle has yet to deliver a broad altseason. Instead, the market is showing mixed signals in this crypto bull run. Some altcoins are making moves, while others remain sluggish. So, what’s holding altcoins back? And more importantly, when will the next altcoin rally begin?

In this article, we’ll break down the current state of the market, the key indicators that signal an altcoin breakout, and which tokens are set to shine when the momentum finally shifts.

What Is an Altcoin Rally?

An altcoin rally happens when altcoins see strong gains, often rising faster than Bitcoin. During an altcoin rally, investors start shifting their attention and funds from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies that might offer higher growth potential. This usually occurs when Bitcoin’s price stabilizes or after a major Bitcoin surge, as investors look for new opportunities.

Several factors can drive an altcoin rally, such as new blockchain developments, growth in decentralized finance (DeFi), or excitement around specific projects. Right now, with Bitcoin reaching record highs, many altcoins are drawing interest, suggesting we could be seeing the start of a rally.

Is Altseason the Same as an Altcoin Rally?

Although they’re related, altseason and an altcoin rally are slightly different.

Altseason is a period when most altcoins outperform Bitcoin for an extended time, signaling a broad shift across the market. It’s usually more widespread and lasts longer, with many altcoins seeing strong gains. Read more about how to spot altseason here.

An altcoin rally, however, is often shorter and involves only a few standout altcoins. These rallies typically happen after a big move in Bitcoin, as investors shift to specific altcoins that show high potential.

Currently, we’re seeing hints of an altcoin rally, with certain altcoins performing well while Bitcoin remains the dominant force in the market.

Why Do Altcoin Rallies Happen?

Are We in an Altcoin Rally?

If you’re looking for a short answer; no, we are not currently in a broad altcoin rally or altseason. The technical indicators suggest that while the market is attempting to rebound, altcoins have yet to establish a sustained bullish trend.

However, we know that everyone wants to know exactly when an altcoin rally begins. Instead of just explaining the indicators, we’ll apply them to the current market outlook as a real-world case study. This way, you can see exactly how to assess market conditions yourself so you’ll always know when a rally is starting.

How to Identify an Altcoin Rally?

Spotting an altcoin rally requires tracking a few key indicators that signal capital is shifting from Bitcoin into higher-risk assets. Here’s what to look for:

• Bitcoin Dominance Declines: When Bitcoin’s market dominance (its percentage of the total crypto market cap) drops, altcoins tend to gain momentum.
• Broad-Based Gains: Multiple altcoins rally at the same time, not just isolated pumps.
• Increased Trading Volume: A rise in volume across various altcoin markets suggests growing interest and liquidity.

Current Crypto Market Outlook March 2025

Let's start with the most clear indicator for spotting a altcoin rally, Bitcoin’s market dominance, a.k.a the percentage of total crypto market cap held by BTC, remains elevated around the 60% level​. This is a historically high share, underlining that Bitcoin still “rules the markets”​ While dominance has slipped slightly since February​ (down from a peak of ~64% in early 2025​, it has not seen a sharp collapse.) A major altcoin rally typically coincides with a steeper decline in BTC dominance, often below key thresholds like 50%​. So far, BTC’s dominance trend remains sideways, not decisively broken down, which suggests alts haven’t taken over momentum yet. We assume that a further drop (e.g. toward the mid-50% range or lower) would be needed to trigger a true altseason.​

In summary, Bitcoin’s dominance is high and only marginally off its highs, which does not strongly signal an altcoin-led market at this time.

The Altcoin Season Index remains far below altseason thresholds​ indicating that most altcoins are underperforming Bitcoin in the recent 90-day window. This metric squarely points to a Bitcoin centric market, not an altcoin led one. Momentum oscillators for major alts are neutral to oversold, not overbought. Key coins like ETH and SOL show no extreme overbought conditions (RSIs ~50)​ and some like ADA are oversold (<30 RSI) from sell-offs​.

This suggests alts have been beaten down and are only starting to stabilize, rather than overheating from a rally. Trend indicators like moving averages do not confirm a new alt uptrend too. We see bearish patterns (e.g. Ethereum’s death cross)​ and a lack of clear golden crosses across the alt sector. Many alts still trade below their long-term (200-day) averages, reflecting residual bearish momentum.Volume and sentiment haven’t flipped decisively pro-altcoin. Alt trading volumes have not shown sustained dominance over Bitcoin, aside from brief rotations​ and investor sentiment is cautious (Fear & Greed = Fear). High short interest and negative funding in some alts further indicate that traders are not all-in on altcoins just yet.

So, Why Do Altcoins Not Increase?

Many traders are frustrated, asking: Why are altcoins not increasing while Bitcoin is strong? Here’s why:

1. Bitcoin is still the priority: Institutions and retail investors are favoring Bitcoin, especially after ETF approvals.
2. Liquidity is low in altcoins: Compared to Bitcoin, altcoin trading volumes remain weak, limiting upward momentum.
3. No strong narrative: The last altcoin seasons were fueled by DeFi (2020) and NFTs (2021). Right now, no new dominant trend is driving the alt market.

Are We Expecting an Altcoin Rally Soon? When Will the Next Altcoin Rally Start?

The short answer: not yet, but conditions are developing for one later in 2025.

As of March 2025, the market is not yet in an altcoin rally, and the key indicators do not confirm that one is imminent. However, while an immediate rally is unlikely, the outlook for the second half of 2025 is more promising. Analysts are watching several factors that could trigger a shift in market dynamics, including:

• Bitcoin stabilizing above $100K. If BTC consolidates after its recent highs, investors may start rotating profits into altcoins.
• Ethereum leading the next phase of growth. With ETH ETFs already approved, institutional interest in Ethereum could spark renewed demand across the broader altcoin market.
• A drop in Bitcoin dominance below 55%. This would indicate capital moving into altcoins, a necessary condition for an altcoin rally.

While short-term conditions remain uncertain, the latter half of 2025 looks increasingly favorable for altcoins, especially if market sentiment improves and capital rotation begins. We are suggesting to watch for Bitcoin dominance weakening, Ethereum gaining strength, and a surge in altcoin trading volume as key indicators that an altcoin rally is starting.

Which Altcoins Stand Out?

While Bitcoin may lead the charge, altcoins tend to shine in their own unique ways. Here are a few altcoins that stand out during market rallies:

• Ethereum (ETH)
• Solana (SOL)
• Cardano (ADA)
• Ripple (XRP)
• Chainlink (LINK)
• Polygon (MATIC)
• Avalanche (AVAX)

Meme Coins and Smaller Altcoins: Though riskier, coins like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe and other meme-based cryptocurrencies often attract speculative traders during altcoin rallies, amplifying their value and creating unexpected market movements.

Promising Altcoins to Watch

Beyond the well-established tokens, several emerging altcoins are gaining traction due to their innovative approaches and potential for significant growth:

• Sui Network (SUI): Sui is a next-generation Layer-1 blockchain designed for scalability and speed. Its use of the Move programming language offers enhanced security and transaction efficiency, making it ideal for decentralized applications (dApps) in gaming and DeFi.​
• Bittensor (TAO): Integrating artificial intelligence with decentralized technologies, Bittensor provides decentralized data storage and AI solutions. Its versatility across multiple blockchain ecosystems positions it well in sectors like AI-driven dApps and smart contracts.​
• Fetch.ai (FET): Fetch.ai is a decentralized platform that utilizes machine learning to enable autonomous agents. Its real-world applications span sectors like supply chain, finance, and mobility, setting it apart as a promising altcoin for the future.​

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Disclaimer: All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. This post does not constitute investment advice.