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Uniswap ($UNI) Crypto Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

Morpher AI identified a bearish signal. The crypto price may continue to fall based on the momentum of the negative news.

What is Uniswap?

UNI is the native token of Uniswap, a decentralized exchange (DEX) platform on the Ethereum blockchain. Uniswap allows users to swap various ERC-20 tokens without the need for a centralized intermediary. Today, UNI experienced a strong bearish movement.

Why is Uniswap going down?

UNI crypto is down 5.1% on Mar 12, 2025 22:20

  • UNI price fell nearly 9% in the last two days, hitting an 8-month low of $5.84, indicating significant selling pressure and bearish sentiment among traders.
  • The launch of Unichain's Layer 2 mainnet, while showing growth in blockchain technology, may have led to community backlash for Uniswap, potentially impacting UNI's price negatively.
  • The concept of on-chain retention, measuring user engagement with digital assets, could be influencing investor sentiment towards UNI, with declining retention possibly signaling reduced relevance or diminishing utility of the token.
  • The combination of negative price movements, community backlash, and potential shifts in user engagement metrics may have contributed to UNI's bearish market movement today.

UNI Price Chart

UNI Technical Analysis

UNI News

Uniswap plunges to 8-month low as traders offload holdings

Uniswap (UNI) price trades in the red on Wednesday at $5.84 after falling nearly 9% in the last two days.

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/uniswap-plunges-to-8-month-low-as-traders-offload-holdings-202503120543

0 News Article Image Uniswap plunges to 8-month low as  traders offload holdings

Unichain, Berachain lead blockchain growth in past month - Nansen

Uniswap L2 Unichain's DEX volume has been the third-highest in the industry in the past 30 days, according to Nansen data.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/uniswap-berachain-named-fastest-growing-networks-in-the-last-month-nansen

1 News Article Image Unichain, Berachain lead blockchain growth in past month - Nansen

On-Chain Retention: A Novel Concept to Measure Engagement with Digital Assets

Introduction User retention is a fundamental measure of business health and a key success indicator for any industry with growth ambitions. It reflects how consistently users engage with a product or service over time.For instance, a platform might report 100,000 weekly active users, but if 80% never return after their first interaction, its growth is unsustainable. Therefore, retention effectively encapsulates engagement, loyalty, and long-term viability, all of which directly impact profitability and sustainability. Applying User Retention to Digital Assets While retention is widely used to evaluate traditional products and services, its application to digital assets remains largely unexplored. Here, we introduce On-chain Retention, a novel framework for assessing user engagement with digital assets using blockchain data.Specifically, we track on-chain address activity to measure how consistently users interact with or hold a specific asset over time. By analyzing this activity, we can determine whether holders return, remain engaged, or disengage entirely - insights that are otherwise difficult to capture in traditional financial markets.On-chain retention offers a deeper lens into user commitment and helps investors and analysts detect fundamental behavioral patterns such as: User Engagement: Identifies sustained interaction and interest in the asset. Speculation vs. Genuine Demand: High churn after price spikes may indicate speculation, while stable retention suggests organic growth. Conviction: Distinguishes between assets held with long-term belief versus those driven by short-lived hype. Waning Interest: Declining retention can signal reduced relevance or diminishing utility. Capital Flight: High churn may indicate users reallocating funds to other assets or markets. Sell Pressure: Drops in retention may precede increased selling activity and potential price declines. Competitive Analysis: Comparing retention across assets reveals shifts in sector-wide user preferences. Stickiness: High retention reflects users' willingness to stay engaged within an asset’s ecosystem. Sentiment: Serves as a proxy for investor confidence and community loyalty. As digital assets gain mainstream acceptance and integrate rapidly into global business, measuring on-chain retention becomes increasingly important as it offers investors a fundamental perspective on engagement beyond price charts. 💡 Bottomline: On-chain retention provides deep insights into user commitment, speculation, and market trends, making it a critical new metric for digital asset analysis. Computing Retention for Digital Assets To measure on-chain retention, we propose two complementary approaches: Activity Retention and Holder Retention. These methods track how users engage with a digital asset over time, either through transactions or by holding balances. Activity Retention Activity Retention measures how consistently addresses participate in transactions. An address is classified as active if it sends or receives a transaction within a given time window (here, we use 30-day intervals). Otherwise, it is considered inactive.At any given point in time, we track the number of active and inactive addresses and analyze their transitions between these states. Figure 1. illustrates the possible transitions, categorizing addresses into four key cohorts: New – First-time active addresses Retained – Addresses that remained active across consecutive time windows Resurrected – Previously inactive addresses that became active again Churned – Previously active addresses that became inactive For example, if an address was inactive in the last 30-day period but participates in a transaction during the current period, it is classified as resurrected. Figure 1. – Transition states of Activity Retention Holder Retention Holder Retention shifts the focus from transaction activity to asset balances. Instead of tracking whether an address is actively sending or receiving funds, this metric analyzes whether an address continues to hold a given asset over time.Figure 2. illustrates the possible transitions. For example, an address that held an asset in the previous 30-day window and continues to do so is classified as retained. In contrast, addresses that previously held the asset but have since reduced their balance to zero are classified as churned. Figure 2. – Transition states of Holder Retention Note that, unlike Activity Retention, where state transitions are binary (active or inactive), Holder Retention allows for more nuanced behaviours. Since addresses can increase, decrease, or clear their balances within the same time window, additional classifications emerge. For instance, an address that acquires an asset and subsequently sells it within the same 30-day period falls into the "New & Churned" cohort. Why Two Distinct Retention Metrics? Activity and Holder Retention provide complementary perspectives on user engagement, each offering unique insights into how digital assets are used and held over time.Activity Retention is particularly valuable for evaluating assets whose value is derived from utility, where sustained transaction activity signals continued adoption and relevance.In contrast, Holder Retention reflects a long-term investment perspective, capturing the conviction of investors who choose to hold an asset over time. This is especially relevant for assets where ownership persistence can indicate confidence in the asset’s long-term value.Given the diversity of digital assets, both retention models are essential for a comprehensive assessment. Depending on the use case - whether evaluating active participation or gauging investor commitment - analyzing both metrics provides a more holistic understanding of an asset’s fundamentals. 💡 Bottomline: Activity Retention is useful for measuring transactional behavior. Holder Retention reflects long-term investor conviction. Combining both provides a comprehensive understanding of asset fundamentals. A Look at the Data Activity Retention provides key insights into the fundamental differences in how digital assets are used, as shown in Figure 3., comparing BTC and ETH. BTC exhibits high "new" and "churned" cohorts, reflecting the common practice of frequently creating and abandoning addresses for privacy. In contrast, ETH has a higher share of "retained" and "resurrected" addresses, underscoring the structural differences between UTXO and account-based blockchains. Figure 3. – BTC and ETH Activity Retention Figure 4 illustrates how price movements can impact Holder Retention. While market conditions naturally influence retention trends, this example highlights a distinct pattern, when a significant number of UNI holders churned amid the sharp price increase in late 2024, potentially indicating investors exiting positions. Figure 4 – UNI Holder Retention 💡 Explore Holder Retention and Activity Retention Metrics for BTC, ETH, and all ERC20 tokens now in Glassnode Studio. Beyond Existing On-Chain Metrics The concept of on-chain retention introduces a fundamentally different perspective compared to many existing on-chain metrics, which may appear similar at first glance but fail to capture user persistence over time. Activity Retention vs. Active Addresses Take Active Addresses, for example. This widely used metric tracks the number of unique addresses interacting with an asset within a given timeframe. However, it does not distinguish whether the activity comes from the same users or an entirely new set.For instance, suppose Active Addresses show 100 users in two consecutive periods. On the surface, this suggests stable engagement. But if the composition of these addresses has completely changed - meaning the original users have all churned, replaced by entirely new ones - then user turnover is 100%.This is where Activity Retention comes in. By tracking whether the same users remain active over time, it reveals true engagement and conviction - insights that Active Addresses alone cannot provide. Holder Retention vs. Addresses with Balance X A similar issue arises with metrics like Addresses with Balance X, which measures the number of addresses holding a given amount of an asset. While an increasing balance cohort might suggest accumulation, it fails to indicate whether the holders within that group are the same over time or if turnover is occurring, suggesting a lack of loyalty.In theory, the entire set of holders could be constantly rotating - meaning, what appears to be a steady increase in a holding cohort might actually be a continuous churn of funds among different addresses. Holder Retention solves this by explicitly tracking whether specific addresses continue holding over time, distinguishing between committed investors and new entrants. How Holder Retention Expands on HODL Waves The closest existing metrics to Holder Retention are the metrics of the HODL Waves family, which quantify the supply that has remained unmoved for a certain period. Since it inherently tracks how long assets remain in addresses, it captures elements of retention.However, Holder Retention goes further. While HODL Waves metrics only measure unmoved supply, Holder Retention also accounts for: Resurrected holders – Addresses that previously exited but re-entered Balance changes – Whether existing holders are increasing or decreasing their stakes By providing these additional layers of insight, Holder Retention offers a richer, more nuanced view of user behaviour beyond just hodled supply. Retention Metrics Live in Glassnode Studio Retention metrics are now available in Glassnode Studio, providing deeper insights into user engagement, loyalty, and market sentiment. The initial release covers BTC, ETH, and all ERC20 tokens, with more assets to follow.Explore retention analytics today to better understand long-term user behaviour in digital assets.

https://insights.glassnode.com/on-chain-retention/

2 News Article Image On-Chain Retention: A Novel Concept to Measure Engagement with Digital Assets

Uniswap Faces Community Backlash Over Unichain Layer 2 Mainnet Launch

Uniswap Faces Community Backlash Over Unichain Layer 2 Mainnet Launch

https://beincrypto.com/uniswap-backlash-unichain-l2-launch/

3 News Article Image Uniswap Faces Community Backlash Over Unichain Layer 2 Mainnet Launch

Uniswap Price History

06.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was down 5.4%

  • The bearish movement in UNI today could be attributed to the community backlash over the launch of Unichain Layer 2 mainnet by Uniswap. Negative sentiment within the community may have led to selling pressure on the token.
  • Additionally, the market volatility in the broader cryptocurrency space might have influenced UNI's price action, as investors may have been more risk-averse due to uncertainties surrounding the White House Crypto Summit and other key events in the crypto industry.
  • The partnership between ETHTaipei 2025 and ETHGlobal, along with Vitalik Buterin's involvement in keynote speeches and panel discussions, could have diverted attention and capital flow towards Ethereum and away from UNI, contributing to the bearish movement.
  • Overall, the combination of community backlash, market volatility, and competing positive news within the crypto space likely played a role in UNI's bearish movement today.

12.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was down 5.2%

  • The bearish movement in UNI's price could be attributed to traders offloading their holdings, as indicated by the 9% decline in the last two days.
  • The community backlash over the Unichain Layer 2 mainnet launch may have contributed to a loss of investor confidence in Uniswap, leading to the bearish market movement.
  • Despite Uniswap's strong fundamentals, including being a major player in the blockchain industry with high DEX volume, negative sentiment surrounding the Unichain launch could have overshadowed these positives.
  • It's essential for Uniswap to address the concerns raised by the community and regain trust to potentially reverse the current bearish trend in its token price.

12.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was down 5.1%

  • UNI price fell nearly 9% in the last two days, hitting an 8-month low of $5.84, indicating significant selling pressure and bearish sentiment among traders.
  • The launch of Unichain's Layer 2 mainnet, while showing growth in blockchain technology, may have led to community backlash for Uniswap, potentially impacting UNI's price negatively.
  • The concept of on-chain retention, measuring user engagement with digital assets, could be influencing investor sentiment towards UNI, with declining retention possibly signaling reduced relevance or diminishing utility of the token.
  • The combination of negative price movements, community backlash, and potential shifts in user engagement metrics may have contributed to UNI's bearish market movement today.

05.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was up 8.5%

  • Excitement in the cryptocurrency space is driven by the White House Crypto Summit.
  • Confidence in the Ethereum network and UNI as an ERC-20 token is rising due to partnerships with ETHGlobal and Vitalik Buterin's role in ETHTaipei 2025.
  • The integration of CEX trading features in DeFi is attracting more users and liquidity to UNI.
  • BNB's strong performance in the altcoin market is believed to be impacting UNI positively, contributing to its recent bullish movement.

05.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was up 5.5%

  • The bullish movement in UNI could be attributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
  • The upcoming events such as the White House Crypto Summit and ETHTaipei 2025 partnering with ETHGlobal may have generated excitement and anticipation among investors, leading to increased buying pressure on UNI.
  • Questioning whether UNI traders should expect a sell-off or a price reversal next could indicate some uncertainty in the market, but for now, the bullish momentum seems to be prevailing.

05.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was up 8.9%

  • The bullish movement of UNI could be attributed to the increasing adoption of DeFi platforms and the growing interest in decentralized exchanges.
  • The anticipation of a potential sell-off or price reversal noted by analysts may create a sense of urgency among traders, leading to increased buying pressure on UNI.
  • Comparisons with BNB, which is holding stronger than other altcoins, might have also influenced traders to view UNI as a promising investment option within the DeFi sector.
  • The announcement of Gate.io listing ZND may have diverted some attention from UNI, but overall market sentiment and demand seem to be favoring UNI's upward movement.

05.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was up 5.4%

  • UNI experienced a bullish movement today as positive news surrounding the crypto market emerged.
  • The announcement of Gate.io listing ZND may have brought attention to the overall DeFi sector, boosting investor confidence in UNI.
  • The SEC dropping the lawsuit against Kraken and the positive sentiment in the crypto market could have contributed to the bullish movement of UNI.
  • Overall, the positive developments in the crypto space and the increasing adoption of DeFi platforms like Uniswap may have fueled the bullish trend in UNI.

05.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was up 5.4%

  • UNI's bullish movement today could be attributed to positive market sentiment and increased trading volume.
  • The belief that BNB is holding stronger than other altcoins might have contributed to a positive outlook on the overall cryptocurrency market, boosting UNI's price.
  • Recent events, such as the dropping of a lawsuit against Kraken by the SEC and positive sentiment in the NFT space with Yuga Labs receiving a reprieve, could have created a favorable environment for UNI and other cryptocurrencies.
  • UNI traders might be optimistic about the future price action of the token, considering the overall positive developments in the cryptocurrency industry.

05.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was up 9.5%

  • The recent partnership between ETHTaipei 2025 and ETHGlobal could have boosted confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem, potentially influencing UNI's price positively.
  • Discussions surrounding the integration of centralized exchange (CEX) trading advantages into decentralized finance (DeFi) may have generated optimism regarding UNI's utility and adoption within the DeFi sector.
  • Speculation about a potential sell-off or price reversal for UNI might have prompted traders to act quickly, resulting in increased buying pressure and contributing to the bullish trend.
  • The favorable outlook towards BNB and its ecosystem relative to other altcoins may have had a ripple effect on UNI, benefiting from the overall positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

10.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was down 5.4%

  • The decrease in UNI's value could be tied to the negative response from the community regarding the launch of Unichain Layer 2 mainnet. This backlash may have prompted selling pressure on UNI.
  • Recent news about Unichain and Berachain's progress in the blockchain space may have indirectly impacted UNI, as investors might have turned their attention to more positively received blockchain projects.
  • Concerns surrounding UNI's user retention and engagement with digital assets could have raised doubts about its long-term sustainability, affecting investor confidence and contributing to the bearish trend.
  • Factors such as the impending White House Crypto Summit and general market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies may have also played a role in UNI's value decline, as investors could be approaching the situation cautiously, thereby leading to the bearish movement.

04.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was down 14.2%

  • UNI's decline today could be linked to the prevailing negative sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
  • Events such as the SEC dropping a lawsuit against Kraken and discussions on capitulation metrics might have heightened market uncertainty, resulting in UNI being sold off.
  • Market participants could be responding to regulatory concerns impacting the broader crypto environment, prompting a shift towards less risky assets like UNI.
  • Attention to investor psychology and capitulation tendencies may have motivated traders to reassess their positions, contributing to the downward pressure on UNI's value.

04.02.2025 - UNI Crypto was down 12.3%

  • UNI likely experienced a bearish movement due to the overall negative sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
  • The SEC dropping the lawsuit against Kraken and the positive news for the crypto exchange could have diverted attention away from UNI, leading to a decrease in demand for the token.
  • The announcement of Gate.io listing ZND may have attracted traders away from UNI, causing a decline in its price.
  • The analysis of Ethereum's price slump and DeFi setbacks could have contributed to a broader market sell-off, impacting UNI's price negatively.
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Disclaimer
Morpher is not liable for the content of the AI investment insights. Like most GPT-powered tools, these summaries may contain AI hallucinations and inaccurate information. Morpher is not presenting you with any investment advice. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. These summaries do not constitute investment advice.