Silver ($XAG) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.4% Today

What is Silver?

Silver, a precious metal known for its industrial and investment demand, experienced a strong bearish movement today in the market.

Why is Silver going down?

XAG commodity is down 5.4% on Oct 17, 2025 16:56

• Silver prices fell over 4% from a record high as risk appetite improved and investors shifted back into equities following attempts to ease US-China trade war fears.
• The pullback in silver prices was also influenced by turmoil in US regional banks disclosing loan fraud issues, raising concerns about financial stability and leading to a broader market sell-off.
• Despite the bearish movement, silver remains up more than 3% for the week, supported by geopolitical tensions, rising US debt, expectations of more Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a liquidity crunch in the London silver market.
• The overall market sentiment towards silver was impacted by a combination of factors including global supply crunch, safe-haven demand, geopolitical risks, and concerns over government spending and debt, contributing to the metal's recent volatility.

XAG Price Chart

XAG Technical Analysis

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Silver Falls 4% from Record High

Silver prices fell over 4% to $51.8 per ounce on Friday, retreating from a record $54.2, as risk appetite improved and investors moved back into equities after President Donald Trump tried to calm fears over the US-China trade war. Despite the pullback, silver remains up more than 3% for the week, marking its ninth straight weekly gain, as earlier in the week markets were shaken by turmoil in US regional banks that disclosed loan fraud issues, raising worries about financial stability. Broader support for silver came from geopolitical tensions, concerns over rising US debt and government spending, and expectations of more Federal Reserve rate cuts, all of which spurred safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, a liquidity crunch in London’s silver market* triggered a global scramble for physical supply, while strong Indian demand further tightened the market, prompting some mutual funds to pause inflows into silver ETF schemes.

Silver Set for Strong Weekly Advance

Silver hovered all-time highs above $54 per ounce on Friday and was poised to gain about 8% for the week, supported by tightening global supply and strong safe-haven demand. Markets were rattled after two US regional banks disclosed loan problems involving alleged fraud, heightening fears of broader credit market stress. Escalating US-China trade tensions, the prolonged US government shutdown, and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts also bolstered appetite for precious metals. Geopolitical risks and concerns over surging government spending and debt further fueled safe-haven inflows as well. Additionally, silver rallied amid a historic squeeze in London, where a lack of liquidity has sparked a global hunt for the metal. Demand from India has further strained supply, prompting several mutual fund houses to suspend inflows into their silver ETF fund-of-fund schemes.

Silver Hovers Near All-Time Highs

Silver climbed back above $52 per ounce on Wednesday, holding close to record highs hit in the prior session as a global supply crunch fueled a historic rally. Tightness was most acute in the London market, where a short squeeze sent lease rates surging over 30% on Friday, driving rollover costs for short positions to unsustainable levels. Demand from India has further strained supply, prompting several mutual fund houses to suspend inflows into their silver ETF fund-of-fund schemes. Meanwhile, dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, who pointed to labor market weakness, strengthened bets on more US rate cuts and boosted appetite for precious metals. On the geopolitical front, tensions deepened after President Trump threatened Beijing with a cooking oil embargo in response to China’s soybean boycott.

Silver Rallies on London Squeeze, Liquidity Concerns

Silver jumped over 1% to above $53 per ounce on Tuesday, hitting fresh record highs as a historic short squeeze and tightening liquidity in London drove traders to scramble for physical supply globally. Lease rates in London soared more than 30% on Friday, pushing rollover costs for short positions to unsustainable levels. At the same time, surging demand from India in recent weeks further strained supply, following earlier shipments of silver to New York amid fears the metal could face US tariffs. On the geopolitical front, markets remained focused on US-China trade dynamics ahead of a potential Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea later this month. Meanwhile, expectations for another Federal Reserve quarter-point rate cut this month, followed by a likely move in December, continued to support precious metals.

Silver Hits New All-Time High

Silver jumped more than 2% to above $51 per ounce on Monday, marking a new all-time high as renewed US-China trade concerns, political instability, and expectations of further US rate cuts fueled demand for safe-haven assets. On Friday, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to Beijing’s new export controls on rare earth minerals. However, Trump later signaled openness to negotiate ahead of a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping later this month, saying that trade relations with China “will all be fine.” Broader geopolitical worries also supported prices, with the ongoing US government shutdown, political turmoil in France, and leadership uncertainty in Japan weighing on sentiment. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points this month and again in December, alongside a tightening physical silver supply in London, continued to bolster the metal’s rally.

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Silver Price History

02.09.2025 - XAG Commodity was down 3.0%

• Silver had been trading near 14-year highs due to safe-haven demand triggered by political and monetary policy uncertainty in the US.
• The bearish movement today could be attributed to profit-taking by investors after the metal's recent rally to record highs.
• Factors such as the US government shutdown, concerns about economic data delays, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts may have contributed to the downward pressure on silver prices.
• Additionally, the ongoing supply-demand imbalances and projected deficits in the silver market could have influenced the bearish movement as well.

10.03.2025 - XAG Commodity was up 5.2%

• Silver prices surged over 3% to trade above $30.50 per ounce as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets due to growing uncertainties surrounding global growth and inflation, particularly driven by the sharp escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions.
• The announcement of a 90-day tariff pause by President Trump, along with reduced rates for most countries except China, contributed to the bullish movement in silver prices, as investors reacted positively to the potential easing of global trade tensions.
• The rebound in silver prices from a two-month low was fueled by heightened safe-haven demand amid concerns over a prolonged standoff between the U.S. and China, with both countries increasing tariffs on each other's goods, leading to fears of a tariff-induced global recession.
• Despite remaining volatile and facing pressure from market uncertainties, including fears of stagflation and potential further Federal Reserve rate cuts, silver managed to stabilize above $30 per ounce as investors continued to navigate shifting global trade dynamics and their impact on economic and inflation expectations.

07.03.2025 - XAG Commodity was up 5.1%

• The spike in silver's market performance today is believed to be influenced by investors turning to safe-haven assets like precious metals, with silver being a favored choice, amidst escalating global trade tensions and growing fears of a recession.
• Recent price volatility and fluctuations below the $30 per ounce mark are thought to be a result of the ramifications of trade policies initiated by US President Donald Trump, particularly with China responding with tariffs and the likelihood of other major economies following suit.
• Despite the overall market decline and apprehensions regarding global consumption, silver and other precious metals are expected to maintain their value as traders speculate on potential Federal Reserve rate adjustments in light of ongoing economic difficulties.
• Silver's ability to withstand market turbulence underscores its reputation as a traditional safe-haven asset during uncertain economic times, attracting investors seeking a secure option amidst unstable market environments.

09.09.2025 - XAG Commodity was down 1.3%

• Silver prices hit record highs recently, driven by strong safe-haven demand, tight supply, and concerns over US fiscal risks, lower interest rates, and global deficit levels.
• Despite the bullish trend in recent days, today's bearish movement could be attributed to profit-taking by investors after the significant price surge.
• The ongoing US government shutdown, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may have also contributed to the market correction in silver prices.
• The long-term outlook for silver remains positive, with continued supply deficits projected in the coming years due to strong industrial demand and limited availability in the London market.

09.09.2025 - XAG Commodity was up 4.3%

• Silver surged above $50 per ounce, hitting record highs, driven by heightened political and economic uncertainties, safe-haven demand, and bets on US rate cuts.
• The prolonged US government shutdown, global uncertainties, and expectations of Fed rate cuts fueled the demand for safe-haven assets like silver.
• Strong industrial demand from sectors like solar and electronics, coupled with a global supply deficit projection, further supported the bullish movement in silver prices.
• Profit-taking and a firmer yield backdrop led to a slight retreat from the multi-year high, showcasing the influence of yield-sensitive capital and market dynamics on silver's price movements.

13.09.2025 - XAG Commodity was up 5.3%

• Silver soared to a new all-time high above $51 per ounce due to renewed US-China trade tensions, political instability, and expectations of further US rate cuts, which fueled demand for safe-haven assets.
• The metal's rally was further supported by ongoing geopolitical worries, including the US government shutdown, political turmoil in France, and leadership uncertainty in Japan, which added to the overall demand for silver as a hedge against market volatility.
• Additionally, supply constraints in the London market and expectations of silver demand outpacing supply for the fifth consecutive year in 2025 contributed to the bullish momentum in silver prices.
• The combination of these factors, alongside silver's role in both investment and industrial applications, such as in solar panels and wind turbines, propelled silver to hit record highs and maintain its upward trajectory, outperforming gold and signaling a positive outlook for the precious metal.

14.09.2025 - XAG Commodity was up 0.5%

• Silver soared to new record highs above $50 per ounce due to a historic short squeeze and liquidity concerns in London, driving traders to scramble for physical supply globally.
• Renewed US-China trade concerns, political instability, and expectations of further US rate cuts fueled demand for safe-haven assets like silver, pushing prices higher.
• Ongoing geopolitical worries, such as the US government shutdown, political turmoil in France, and leadership uncertainty in Japan, added to the metal's rally as investors sought refuge in precious metals.
• The combination of strong safe-haven demand, persistent supply constraints, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut further supported silver's upward trajectory, with the metal on track for its eighth consecutive weekly gain.

17.09.2025 - XAG Commodity was down 5.4%

• Silver prices fell over 4% from a record high as risk appetite improved and investors shifted back into equities following attempts to ease US-China trade war fears.
• The pullback in silver prices was also influenced by turmoil in US regional banks disclosing loan fraud issues, raising concerns about financial stability and leading to a broader market sell-off.
• Despite the bearish movement, silver remains up more than 3% for the week, supported by geopolitical tensions, rising US debt, expectations of more Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a liquidity crunch in the London silver market.
• The overall market sentiment towards silver was impacted by a combination of factors including global supply crunch, safe-haven demand, geopolitical risks, and concerns over government spending and debt, contributing to the metal's recent volatility.

02.05.2025 - XAG Commodity was up 5.1%

• Silver prices surged by 5% to $34.639 per ounce, driven by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, with President Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports contributing to market uncertainty.
• The ongoing legal battles over trade policies, including court rulings on tariffs, have added to the volatility in silver prices, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets.
• Despite a late pullback in May, silver managed to end the month with a 1.8% gain as investors monitored US trade policy developments and key economic data releases, highlighting the metal's role as a hedge against market fluctuations.
• The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates and concerns over inflation and unemployment risks, as indicated in meeting minutes, also influenced silver prices as investors sought stability in uncertain economic conditions.

23.03.2025 - XAG Commodity was up 2.3%

• Silver demonstrated significant positive momentum today, surging to $33 per ounce, supported by a general upswing in commodity prices and indications of reduced trade tensions between the US and China.
• The metal's unique characteristics as both a precious and industrial metal played a key role in its robust performance, surpassing gold which saw a decline after hitting record highs due to lower demand for safe havens.
• Investor confidence was bolstered by statements from President Trump regarding upcoming tariffs and reassurances from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, easing worries about the independence and trajectory of monetary policies.
• The depreciation of the US dollar and escalating trade disputes further boosted silver's value, underscoring its attractiveness as a safe-haven asset in the face of global economic and geopolitical instabilities.

12.04.2025 - XAG Commodity was down 1.5%

• Silver prices took a hit as optimism surrounding US-China trade talks increased, leading to reduced demand for safe-haven assets like silver.
• The potential progress in trade negotiations and the announcement of a preliminary trade deal between the US and the UK shifted market sentiment towards risk-on assets, impacting the demand for silver negatively.
• Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the cautious stance adopted by Chair Jerome Powell further influenced the market, with investors turning away from safe-haven assets like silver.
• The overall market movement suggests that silver prices are highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and macroeconomic factors, with trade tensions and central bank policies playing a significant role in shaping investor sentiment towards the metal.

22.07.2025 - XAG Commodity was up 1.4%

• Silver held steady and climbed above $38 per ounce as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the interest rate outlook.
• The metal showed resilience despite a stronger dollar and diverged from gold's weakness, as markets weighed the Fed's rate outlook and potential for monetary easing.
• Divisions among Fed officials, with some advocating for rate cuts while others favored steady rates, added uncertainty to the market, with traders pricing in expectations for easing.
• Silver's bullish movement was further supported by easing geopolitical risks and fading concerns over a global trade war, contributing to a decline in safe-haven demand for precious metals.