Soybeans ($SOY) Commodity Forecast: Down 0.8% Today

What is Soybeans?

Soybeans, a key agricultural commodity, experienced a strong bearish movement in the market today.

Why is Soybeans going down?

SOY commodity is down 0.8% on Jan 12, 2026 17:00

• The bearish movement in soybean prices today can be attributed to profit-taking by traders after recent rallies and technical selling following a surge in prices.
• Despite continued Chinese purchases and overseas demand improvements, the pullback in soybean futures was influenced by traders locking in gains and market participants engaging in profit-taking strategies.
• Significant soybean cargoes were reportedly purchased by China's state stockpiler. However, ongoing demand from China and other countries were not enough to sustain the bullish momentum in the face of profit-taking activities.
• The narrowing premium of US soybeans over Brazilian supplies due to currency fluctuations and slower export pace compared to last year also contributed to the downward pressure on soybean prices today.

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Soybean Futures Lifted by China Buying and Energy Price Gains

Soybean futures hovered around $10.50 per bushel, holding near their highest levels since late last year as traders positioned ahead of the USDA’s January WASDE report. Prices have been underpinned by continued Chinese purchases of US soybeans, with cumulative sales now exceeding 10?million?tons and approaching the 12?million-ton target previously cited by US officials. Private exporters reported significant new sales to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year, reinforcing demand expectations. In addition to export support, energy markets have provided a bullish backdrop: crude oil prices have risen on concerns about supply disruptions and geopolitical risks, particularly around Venezuela, helping lift vegetable oil markets. Higher oil prices tend to support soybean oil, a key feedstock for biodiesel and other uses, which in turn lends additional support to soybean futures through the linkage between energy and oilseed markets.

Soybean Futures Hold Near $10.50 on China Buying

Soybean futures hovered around $10.50 a bushel, maintaining their highest level since the end of last year, supported by continued Chinese purchases of US beans. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed on Tuesday that private exporters reported sales of 336,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. Cumulative Chinese purchases now exceed 10 million tons, approaching the 12-million-ton target. Meanwhile, the head of the Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) noted that strong US sales to China are likely to temper demand for Brazilian soybeans this year. ANEC estimates that Brazil’s soybean exports to China in 2026 will decline to 77 million tons, down 10 million tons year-on-year.

Soybeans Edge Lower After Monday Rally

Soybean futures turned lower to around $10.40 per bushel on Tuesday, giving back part of the previous session’s gains as traders engaged in technical selling after prices jumped into double-digit territory a day earlier. The pullback came despite confirmation from the US Department of Agriculture that exporters sold 336,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for shipment in the 2025/26 season, which had helped lift futures on Monday. Market participants also cited reports that China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased about 10 US soybean cargoes this week, totaling roughly 600,000 metric tons, reinforcing evidence of underlying demand. While US soybeans remain more expensive than newly harvested Brazilian supplies, that premium has narrowed due to a stronger Brazilian real and a weaker US dollar. Export data showed soybean shipments are still running well below last year’s pace, though inspections for offshore delivery rose week over week to 980,518 metric tons.

Soybeans Jump from Lows as Overseas Demand Improves

Soybean futures rose sharply to above $10.45 per bushel, rebounding from multi-week lows as broad-based buying and fund inflows lifted prices at the start of the year. The rally was fueled by signs of improving demand, including recent overseas purchases, with Egypt buying 100,000 metric tons of US soybeans and China purchasing an additional 136,000 metric tons for delivery in the current marketing year. USDA data showed total US soybean export sales of about 1.2 million metric tons for 2025–26 in the week ended December 25, with China accounting for a large share. Commodity funds were active buyers, with traders estimating net purchases of around 12,000 soybean contracts, as the market was seen as oversold following a steep correction from November highs. Despite the rebound, ample global supplies, including expectations for a record Brazilian soybean crop, continue to cap longer-term upside.

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Soybeans Price History

08.10.2024 - SOY Commodity was up 2.5%

• The bullish movement in soybean prices today can be attributed to the rebound from a recent nine-week low, supported by strong U.S. demand and rising crude oil prices.
• The increase in soybean futures was also driven by higher U.S. soybean exports reported by the USDA, indicating healthy demand for the commodity.
• Despite the downward pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and ample supply, the market sentiment turned positive due to the supportive factors of demand and export figures.
• The shift in planting patterns in Argentina and Brazil towards soybeans due to low corn prices and expected dry conditions also contributed to the bullish movement in soybean prices.

04.03.2025 - SOY Commodity was down 2.0%

• The bearish movement in Soybeans today is due to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and its major trading partners, particularly China. This has raised fears of retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural products.
• The market was further influenced by higher-than-expected soybean stockpiles reported by the USDA, indicating ample domestic supplies and increased competition from South America.
• Uncertainty regarding U.S. import tariffs and their potential impact on soybean exports added to the downward pressure on prices.
• Traders monitored weather conditions in key growing regions and awaited new estimates on U.S. plantings, which were anticipated to indicate a reduction in soybean acreage, further impacting market sentiment.

13.05.2025 - SOY Commodity was up 0.9%

• Weak demand for soyoil and biodiesel fuel contributed to the decline in soybean futures prices.
• The USDA's unchanged forecast for US soybean supply, usage, and average price at $10.25 per bushel maintained market stability.
• Global adjustments, including increased beginning stocks and ending stocks primarily in China, added to the cautious sentiment in the soybean market.
• Despite steady domestic fundamentals, bearish sentiment in soy product markets and global factors kept soybean futures under pressure, leading to a decline in prices.

30.09.2025 - SOY Commodity was up 0.9%

• The bullish movement in soybeans today can be attributed to the optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks and the potential increase in soybean purchases by China.
• President Trump's announcement of China pledging to buy significant volumes of US soybeans immediately after the meeting with President Xi Jinping has fueled market sentiment.
• The prospect of increased US supply to China and the potential easing of trade tensions could put pressure on Brazilian soybean prices, as China is a significant market for Brazilian exports.
• The market tracking has been impacted by the partial US government shutdown, but private analysts estimate a substantial portion of the 2025 US crop has already been harvested, adding to the positive outlook for soybeans.

30.09.2025 - SOY Commodity was down 0.4%

• Despite recent optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade deal and increased soybean purchases by China, the market saw a bearish movement, possibly due to profit-taking by investors after a period of significant gains.
• The ongoing partial US government shutdown limiting market tracking data may have added uncertainty and contributed to the bearish sentiment.
• The record soybean harvest projections in Brazil and the anticipation of increased acreage in Argentina could have also weighed on prices, as higher supply expectations may have dampened market outlook.
• It's essential to monitor further developments in US-China trade negotiations and global crop yields to gauge future market movements for soybeans.

12.00.2026 - SOY Commodity was down 0.8%

• The bearish movement in soybean prices today can be attributed to profit-taking by traders after recent rallies and technical selling following a surge in prices.
• Despite continued Chinese purchases and overseas demand improvements, the pullback in soybean futures was influenced by traders locking in gains and market participants engaging in profit-taking strategies.
• Significant soybean cargoes were reportedly purchased by China's state stockpiler. However, ongoing demand from China and other countries were not enough to sustain the bullish momentum in the face of profit-taking activities.
• The narrowing premium of US soybeans over Brazilian supplies due to currency fluctuations and slower export pace compared to last year also contributed to the downward pressure on soybean prices today.

10.00.2025 - SOY Commodity was up 2.8%

• Soybean futures dropped below $10 per bushel as profit-taking occurred following forecasts of rain in drought-affected areas of Argentina.
• Concerns about the possible impact of proposed tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump on U.S. soybean prices are creating market uncertainty, potentially leading to prices below farmers' production costs.
• The combination of improved weather conditions in Argentina and trade policy worries is contributing to price volatility in the soybean market. Traders are closely watching these factors for future market trends.

11.07.2025 - SOY Commodity was up 1.5%

• The bullish movement in soybeans today can be attributed to a rebound from a four-month low, driven by renewed demand for the oilseed due to lower prices.
• Strong weekly net export sales reported by the USDA and increased buying interest, particularly from export markets, have boosted optimism for demand, contributing to the price recovery.
• The competitiveness of US soybeans abroad has been enhanced by the recent price drop and dollar weakness, attracting buyers and supporting the upward movement in prices.
• Despite concerns about ample supply and favorable growing conditions in the US, factors such as fund short covering and expectations of slower growth in Brazil's soybean area have helped support soybean prices and led to today's bullish market movement.

31.02.2025 - SOY Commodity was down 0.5%

• Soybean futures surged to a 4-week high of $10.30 per bushel, driven by anticipation of reduced U.S. plantings and concerns over potential retaliatory tariffs in the escalating trade war.
• The announcement of reciprocal tariffs targeting all nations, along with reports of a more aggressive stance on tariffs, added to the uncertainty in the soybean market.
• Despite the recent gains, soybeans have faced a significant decline of 14.55% over the past year, reflecting the ongoing challenges and fluctuations in the market.

12.07.2025 - SOY Commodity was up 0.7%

• Comments on China potentially increasing soybean orders from the U.S. led to a surge in soybean futures, showcasing the market's sensitivity to trade dynamics influenced by global events.
• Despite the temporary rally, ongoing concerns about the bumper U.S. harvest and China's preference for South American supplies continue to exert downward pressure on soybean prices.
• The upcoming report on corn and soybean production estimates is anticipated to provide further insight into the supply outlook, with expectations of a large harvest contributing to market uncertainties.
• The recent rebound in soybean prices from a four-month low was driven by increased buying interest due to lower prices, strong export sales, and fund short covering, highlighting the market's responsiveness to pricing and demand dynamics.

14.07.2024 - SOY Commodity was down 6.3%

• The near 4-year low in soybean prices reflects a pronounced downward trajectory.
• Ongoing price declines indicate a potential imbalance between supply and demand.
• The market's bearish trend may be influenced by trade disputes, weather-related harvest issues, or changing consumer preferences impacting soy product demand.

14.10.2025 - SOY Commodity was down 2.3%

• Soybean futures hit their highest level since July 2024, reaching above $11.20 per bushel, driven by anticipation for the USDA update on global supply and demand.
• Despite the lack of large-scale purchases from China, with traders still waiting for major soybean deals, Chinese state trader COFCO announced agreements to buy Brazilian soybeans and other agricultural products, casting uncertainty on US purchases.
• Investors are eagerly awaiting the US soybean yield report, expecting it to come in slightly below the USDA's previous estimate, which could impact future market movements.
• The recent 11% gain in Soybeans over the past 4 weeks and 12 months indicates a bullish trend, but the market's reaction to the USDA report will be crucial in determining future price movements.