Soybeans ($SOY) Commodity Forecast: Up 0.7% Today

What is Soybeans?

Soybeans are a key commodity in the agricultural market, with the U.S. being one of the major producers. Today, soybeans experienced a bullish movement.

Why is Soybeans going up?

SOY commodity is up 0.7% on Aug 12, 2025 16:05

• Comments on China potentially increasing soybean orders from the U.S. led to a surge in soybean futures, showcasing the market's sensitivity to trade dynamics influenced by global events.
• Despite the temporary rally, ongoing concerns about the bumper U.S. harvest and China's preference for South American supplies continue to exert downward pressure on soybean prices.
• The upcoming report on corn and soybean production estimates is anticipated to provide further insight into the supply outlook, with expectations of a large harvest contributing to market uncertainties.
• The recent rebound in soybean prices from a four-month low was driven by increased buying interest due to lower prices, strong export sales, and fund short covering, highlighting the market's responsiveness to pricing and demand dynamics.

SOY Price Chart

SOY Technical Analysis

SOY News

Soybeans Fall as Harvest Prospects Offset Trump’s China Comments

Soybean futures dropped about 1% to roughly $9.78 per bushel on Tuesday, giving back part of Monday’s gains as expectations of a bumper U.S. harvest weighed on prices. Monday’s rally had been driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks expressing hope that China would quadruple its soybean purchases. Traders noted the comment briefly lifted sentiment, but the reality is that U.S. market share in China continues to shrink. Amid ongoing trade tensions, China has yet to secure soybeans from the upcoming U.S. harvest—an unusual delay that is raising concerns among American farmers and exporters ahead of the peak shipping season. Meanwhile, the USDA’s weekly report showed slight declines in crop condition ratings. As of Sunday, 72% of U.S. corn and 68% of soybeans were rated good to excellent, down 1 percentage point from last week. Despite the dip, both crops remain on track for large harvests, with corn seeing its best late-season rating since 2016.

Soybeans Climb Above $9.80 After Trump Calls for China to Quadruple Orders

Soybean futures jumped over 2% to above $9.80 per bushel after U.S. President Donald Trump said he hoped China would quadruple its soybean orders from the U.S. China, the world’s largest soybean importer, has increasingly favored South American supplies in recent years due to trade frictions, diplomatic strains, and competitive pricing from Brazil, now the top global exporter. While trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials continue, market attention is also on the USDA’s August 12 report, which could revise corn and soybean production estimates. Analysts expect favorable weather in key U.S. growing regions to support a bumper harvest later this year, intensifying concerns about abundant supplies and potential downward pressure on prices, even if Chinese demand rebounds.

Trump Urges China to Boost Soybean Buys as Tariff Truce Near Ends

President Donald Trump on Monday urged China to sharply increase purchases of U.S. soybeans, framing it as a way to narrow Beijing’s trade deficit with Washington. On Truth Social, he wrote, “China is worried about its shortage of soybeans. Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China’s Trade Deficit with the USA. Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President XI.” His remarks came as U.S.-China tensions rose ahead of Tuesday’s expiry of their tariff truce, heightening the risk of renewed higher tariffs. Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported China is quietly reshaping its soybean trade amid an economic slowdown, exporting soybean oil for the first time in years due to weaker domestic demand and strong biodiesel prices, while trialing soybean meal imports from Argentina to reduce domestic processing of raw beans for animal feed.

Soybean Falls on US Supply Outlook

Soybean futures fell below $9.70 per bushel, as supply outlook continues to weigh on prices despite short-term demand support. The decline followed a bounce in prices driven by higher-than-expected US export sales, which indicated that low prices were stimulating demand. However, expectations of ample supply and favorable growing conditions in the US have kept pressure on soybean prices. Traders are closely watching the upcoming USDA report on August 12 for potential revisions to corn and soybean production estimates. The overall outlook suggests a bumper harvest later in the year, contributing to abundant supply concerns.

Soybeans Rebound From 4-Month Low

Soybean futures rose above $9.70 per bushel on Thursday, rebounding from a four-month low as lower prices sparked renewed demand for the oilseed. US soybeans, now among the cheapest globally, attracted increased buying interest, particularly from export markets. The USDA reported strong weekly net export sales totaling over 1 million metric tons for the week ending July 31, boosting optimism for demand. The recent price drop, combined with dollar weakness, has enhanced the competitiveness of US soybeans abroad. Additionally, fund short covering contributed to the price recovery. While prices climbed, Brazil’s soybean area is expected to grow in the 2025/26 season, but at the slowest rate in nearly 20 years, potentially limiting global supply expansion.

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Soybeans Price History

08.10.2024 - SOY Commodity was up 2.5%

• The bullish movement in soybean prices today can be attributed to the rebound from a recent nine-week low, supported by strong U.S. demand and rising crude oil prices.
• The increase in soybean futures was also driven by higher U.S. soybean exports reported by the USDA, indicating healthy demand for the commodity.
• Despite the downward pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and ample supply, the market sentiment turned positive due to the supportive factors of demand and export figures.
• The shift in planting patterns in Argentina and Brazil towards soybeans due to low corn prices and expected dry conditions also contributed to the bullish movement in soybean prices.

04.03.2025 - SOY Commodity was down 2.0%

• The bearish movement in Soybeans today is due to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and its major trading partners, particularly China. This has raised fears of retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural products.
• The market was further influenced by higher-than-expected soybean stockpiles reported by the USDA, indicating ample domestic supplies and increased competition from South America.
• Uncertainty regarding U.S. import tariffs and their potential impact on soybean exports added to the downward pressure on prices.
• Traders monitored weather conditions in key growing regions and awaited new estimates on U.S. plantings, which were anticipated to indicate a reduction in soybean acreage, further impacting market sentiment.

13.05.2025 - SOY Commodity was up 0.9%

• Weak demand for soyoil and biodiesel fuel contributed to the decline in soybean futures prices.
• The USDA's unchanged forecast for US soybean supply, usage, and average price at $10.25 per bushel maintained market stability.
• Global adjustments, including increased beginning stocks and ending stocks primarily in China, added to the cautious sentiment in the soybean market.
• Despite steady domestic fundamentals, bearish sentiment in soy product markets and global factors kept soybean futures under pressure, leading to a decline in prices.

10.00.2025 - SOY Commodity was up 2.8%

• Soybean futures dropped below $10 per bushel as profit-taking occurred following forecasts of rain in drought-affected areas of Argentina.
• Concerns about the possible impact of proposed tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump on U.S. soybean prices are creating market uncertainty, potentially leading to prices below farmers' production costs.
• The combination of improved weather conditions in Argentina and trade policy worries is contributing to price volatility in the soybean market. Traders are closely watching these factors for future market trends.

11.07.2025 - SOY Commodity was up 1.5%

• The bullish movement in soybeans today can be attributed to a rebound from a four-month low, driven by renewed demand for the oilseed due to lower prices.
• Strong weekly net export sales reported by the USDA and increased buying interest, particularly from export markets, have boosted optimism for demand, contributing to the price recovery.
• The competitiveness of US soybeans abroad has been enhanced by the recent price drop and dollar weakness, attracting buyers and supporting the upward movement in prices.
• Despite concerns about ample supply and favorable growing conditions in the US, factors such as fund short covering and expectations of slower growth in Brazil's soybean area have helped support soybean prices and led to today's bullish market movement.

12.07.2023 - SOY Commodity was down 7.2%

• The bearish movement in soybeans can be attributed to the following factors:
• 1. Rainy weather and good growing conditions: The rainy weather across the key U.S. crop belt and forecasts for favorable growing conditions in August have raised expectations of a strong soybean crop. This has led to increased supply expectations, putting downward pressure on soybean prices.
• 2. Strong supply from China: The news of private exporters reporting the sale of a significant amount of soybeans to China for delivery in the future marketing year indicates a strong supply from China. This suggests that the demand for soybeans may not be as robust as previously anticipated, further contributing to the bearish movement.
• 3. Previous concerns easing: The bearish movement in soybeans comes after the market reached an over 1-year high fueled by concerns over crop yields in the United States and improved Chinese demand prospects. With these concerns easing, investors may be taking profits and driving down prices.
• Overall, the bearish movement in soybeans can be attributed to favorable growing conditions, strong supply from China, and profit-taking after previous concerns eased.

31.02.2025 - SOY Commodity was down 0.5%

• Soybean futures surged to a 4-week high of $10.30 per bushel, driven by anticipation of reduced U.S. plantings and concerns over potential retaliatory tariffs in the escalating trade war.
• The announcement of reciprocal tariffs targeting all nations, along with reports of a more aggressive stance on tariffs, added to the uncertainty in the soybean market.
• Despite the recent gains, soybeans have faced a significant decline of 14.55% over the past year, reflecting the ongoing challenges and fluctuations in the market.

11.07.2023 - SOY Commodity was down 5.1%

• Soybean futures fell to a 5-week low due to rainy weather in the key U.S. crop belt and favorable growing conditions expected for August.
• The market was also affected by the news of a large sale of soybeans to China, indicating strong demand.
• The previous surge in soybean prices was driven by concerns over crop yields in the United States and improving Chinese demand prospects.
• Overall, the bearish movement in soybeans can be attributed to favorable weather conditions and increased supply expectations, along with the absence of immediate concerns over crop yields and demand.

10.06.2024 - SOY Commodity was down 2.9%

• Soybeans hit a 10-week low at 1142.00 USd/Bu, signaling a significant downward trend.
• Over the past 4 weeks, there has been a continuous decrease with a substantial 17.04% drop in the last 12 months, indicating a persistent bearish sentiment.
• Possible factors contributing to the downward pressure on soybean prices may include oversupply, trade tensions affecting export demand, and unfavorable weather conditions impacting crop yields.

12.07.2025 - SOY Commodity was up 0.7%

• Comments on China potentially increasing soybean orders from the U.S. led to a surge in soybean futures, showcasing the market's sensitivity to trade dynamics influenced by global events.
• Despite the temporary rally, ongoing concerns about the bumper U.S. harvest and China's preference for South American supplies continue to exert downward pressure on soybean prices.
• The upcoming report on corn and soybean production estimates is anticipated to provide further insight into the supply outlook, with expectations of a large harvest contributing to market uncertainties.
• The recent rebound in soybean prices from a four-month low was driven by increased buying interest due to lower prices, strong export sales, and fund short covering, highlighting the market's responsiveness to pricing and demand dynamics.

14.07.2024 - SOY Commodity was down 6.3%

• The near 4-year low in soybean prices reflects a pronounced downward trajectory.
• Ongoing price declines indicate a potential imbalance between supply and demand.
• The market's bearish trend may be influenced by trade disputes, weather-related harvest issues, or changing consumer preferences impacting soy product demand.