Soybeans ($SOY) Commodity Forecast: Down 2.0% Today

What is Soybeans?

Soybeans are a widely traded commodity used in various industries, with a significant portion of U.S. production being exported to countries like China.

Why is Soybeans going down?

SOY commodity is down 2.0% on Apr 4, 2025 10:40

• The bearish movement in Soybeans today is due to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and its major trading partners, particularly China. This has raised fears of retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural products.
• The market was further influenced by higher-than-expected soybean stockpiles reported by the USDA, indicating ample domestic supplies and increased competition from South America.
• Uncertainty regarding U.S. import tariffs and their potential impact on soybean exports added to the downward pressure on prices.
• Traders monitored weather conditions in key growing regions and awaited new estimates on U.S. plantings, which were anticipated to indicate a reduction in soybean acreage, further impacting market sentiment.

SOY Price Chart

SOY Technical Analysis

SOY News

Soybeans Hits 4-week Low

Soybeans decreased to a 4-week low of 993.25 USd/Bu. Over the past 4 weeks, Soybeans lost 0.36%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 16.1%.

Soybeans Fall on Fears of Tariff Retaliation

Soybean futures dropped toward $10.1 per bushel, their lowest level since March 26, amid concerns that new U.S. tariffs could prompt retaliatory measures against American farm products, with over 40% of U.S. soybean production exported. President Donald Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports, alongside higher duties on key trading partners, including an additional 34% levy on Chinese imports. In response, China, the world’s largest soybean importer, which has already imposed tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, warned of additional duties unless Washington reverses its trade measures. On the supply side, the USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report projected a 4% decline in U.S. soybean acreage this year to 83.5 million acres, slightly below market expectations of 83.8 million. Soybean stocks as of March 1 stood at 1.91 billion bushels, up 4% from last year and slightly above the consensus estimate of 1.90 billion.

Soybean Futures Rise Amid Trade and Crop Data Uncertainty

Soybean futures rose above $10.3 a bushel on Tuesday as traders reacted to market developments. The price movement reflected the influence of U.S. crop data and ongoing trade policy concerns. Traders closely monitored potential U.S. tariffs and the risk of retaliatory measures, which could impact soybean exports. Weather conditions in key growing regions also played a role in shaping market sentiment. While soybeans experienced modest gains, uncertainty surrounding trade and agricultural forecasts continued to drive cautious trading. Analysts noted that broader market trends and policy decisions would be crucial in determining future price direction.

Soybean Futures Fall Amid Larger Stockpiles and Tariff Concerns

Soybean futures dropped to around $10.15 per bushel, after U.S. Department of Agriculture data revealed higher-than-expected crop stock estimates. Analysts pointed out that while soybean acreage numbers were in line with projections, the larger-than-anticipated stockpiles weighed on prices due to ample domestic supplies and competition from South America. The market also remained cautious as concerns mounted over the upcoming U.S. import tariffs set to take effect on April 2. Over the weekend, President Trump announced that the reciprocal tariffs he plans to introduce on Wednesday will target all nations, not just the 10 to 15 countries with the largest trade imbalances. Reports also suggest that Trump has urged his advisors to adopt a more aggressive stance on tariffs.

Soybeans Rise Ahead of US Sowings Estimates

Soybean futures climbed toward $10.30 per bushel, reaching their highest level since February 25th, as investors anticipated new estimates on U.S. plantings due later in the day, which are expected to show a reduction in soybean acreage. Concerns also grew over an escalating trade war, with U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, vulnerable to potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. U.S. President Trump announced during the weekend that the reciprocal tariffs he plans to unveil on Wednesday will target all nations, rather than just a smaller group of 10 to 15 countries with the largest trade imbalances. Reports also indicate that Trump has urged his advisors to adopt a more aggressive stance on tariffs.

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Soybeans Price History

08.10.2024 - SOY Commodity was up 2.5%

• The bullish movement in soybean prices today can be attributed to the rebound from a recent nine-week low, supported by strong U.S. demand and rising crude oil prices.
• The increase in soybean futures was also driven by higher U.S. soybean exports reported by the USDA, indicating healthy demand for the commodity.
• Despite the downward pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and ample supply, the market sentiment turned positive due to the supportive factors of demand and export figures.
• The shift in planting patterns in Argentina and Brazil towards soybeans due to low corn prices and expected dry conditions also contributed to the bullish movement in soybean prices.

04.03.2025 - SOY Commodity was down 2.0%

• The bearish movement in Soybeans today is due to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and its major trading partners, particularly China. This has raised fears of retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural products.
• The market was further influenced by higher-than-expected soybean stockpiles reported by the USDA, indicating ample domestic supplies and increased competition from South America.
• Uncertainty regarding U.S. import tariffs and their potential impact on soybean exports added to the downward pressure on prices.
• Traders monitored weather conditions in key growing regions and awaited new estimates on U.S. plantings, which were anticipated to indicate a reduction in soybean acreage, further impacting market sentiment.

10.00.2025 - SOY Commodity was up 2.8%

• Soybean futures dropped below $10 per bushel as profit-taking occurred following forecasts of rain in drought-affected areas of Argentina.
• Concerns about the possible impact of proposed tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump on U.S. soybean prices are creating market uncertainty, potentially leading to prices below farmers' production costs.
• The combination of improved weather conditions in Argentina and trade policy worries is contributing to price volatility in the soybean market. Traders are closely watching these factors for future market trends.

12.07.2023 - SOY Commodity was down 7.2%

• The bearish movement in soybeans can be attributed to the following factors:
• 1. Rainy weather and good growing conditions: The rainy weather across the key U.S. crop belt and forecasts for favorable growing conditions in August have raised expectations of a strong soybean crop. This has led to increased supply expectations, putting downward pressure on soybean prices.
• 2. Strong supply from China: The news of private exporters reporting the sale of a significant amount of soybeans to China for delivery in the future marketing year indicates a strong supply from China. This suggests that the demand for soybeans may not be as robust as previously anticipated, further contributing to the bearish movement.
• 3. Previous concerns easing: The bearish movement in soybeans comes after the market reached an over 1-year high fueled by concerns over crop yields in the United States and improved Chinese demand prospects. With these concerns easing, investors may be taking profits and driving down prices.
• Overall, the bearish movement in soybeans can be attributed to favorable growing conditions, strong supply from China, and profit-taking after previous concerns eased.

31.02.2025 - SOY Commodity was down 0.5%

• Soybean futures surged to a 4-week high of $10.30 per bushel, driven by anticipation of reduced U.S. plantings and concerns over potential retaliatory tariffs in the escalating trade war.
• The announcement of reciprocal tariffs targeting all nations, along with reports of a more aggressive stance on tariffs, added to the uncertainty in the soybean market.
• Despite the recent gains, soybeans have faced a significant decline of 14.55% over the past year, reflecting the ongoing challenges and fluctuations in the market.

11.07.2023 - SOY Commodity was down 5.1%

• Soybean futures fell to a 5-week low due to rainy weather in the key U.S. crop belt and favorable growing conditions expected for August.
• The market was also affected by the news of a large sale of soybeans to China, indicating strong demand.
• The previous surge in soybean prices was driven by concerns over crop yields in the United States and improving Chinese demand prospects.
• Overall, the bearish movement in soybeans can be attributed to favorable weather conditions and increased supply expectations, along with the absence of immediate concerns over crop yields and demand.

10.06.2024 - SOY Commodity was down 2.9%

• Soybeans hit a 10-week low at 1142.00 USd/Bu, signaling a significant downward trend.
• Over the past 4 weeks, there has been a continuous decrease with a substantial 17.04% drop in the last 12 months, indicating a persistent bearish sentiment.
• Possible factors contributing to the downward pressure on soybean prices may include oversupply, trade tensions affecting export demand, and unfavorable weather conditions impacting crop yields.

14.07.2024 - SOY Commodity was down 6.3%

• The near 4-year low in soybean prices reflects a pronounced downward trajectory.
• Ongoing price declines indicate a potential imbalance between supply and demand.
• The market's bearish trend may be influenced by trade disputes, weather-related harvest issues, or changing consumer preferences impacting soy product demand.