Gold ($XAU) Commodity Forecast: Down 0.3% Today

What is Gold?

Gold, a precious metal often considered a safe-haven asset, experienced a strong bearish movement today amidst global economic uncertainties and trade tensions.

Why is Gold going down?

XAU commodity is down 0.3% on Apr 3, 2025 14:16

• Gold prices dropped significantly by more than 3% from a record high above $3,160 per ounce due to the decision to exempt precious metals from tariffs, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
• Despite the decline, concerns about the tariffs' impact on global inflation and growth, coupled with expectations of rate cuts and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, helped mitigate the losses, showcasing the metal's resilience in volatile times.
• The market movement was also influenced by tariff announcements, outlining baseline tariffs and higher rates for countries like China, the EU, and Japan, as investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.
• Overall, the bearish movement in gold today can be attributed to a combination of factors, including trade tensions, economic uncertainties, and market reactions to geopolitical events, highlighting the metal's sensitivity to global developments.

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Gold Falls from Record High

Gold dropped more than 3%, falling below $3,060 per ounce on Thursday after briefly reaching a record high above $3,160, following news that the White House would exempt precious metals, steel, aluminum, and other metals from President Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs. However, concerns about the tariffs' impact on global inflation and growth, combined with expectations of rate cuts, central bank purchases, and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, helped limit the losses. On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries, with higher rates for key trade partners, including China (34%), the EU (20%), and Japan (24%). The 25% tariff on all foreign-made automobiles also took effect today. Trump argued that these measures would support domestic manufacturing and reduce trade deficits. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday for further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.

Gold Eases but Remains Near Record High

Gold eased below $3,130 per ounce on Thursday after initially hitting a fresh all-time high above $3,160 on heightened risk aversion following President Donald Trump's tariff announcement. Trump outlined a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries and higher tariff rates on dozens of nations that run trade surpluses with the U.S., including China (34%), the EU (20%), and Japan (24%). The 25% tariff on all foreign-made automobiles also took effect today. Trump claimed the measures would boost domestic manufacturing and reduce trade deficits. Bullion was also supported by expectations of rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, with China’s ETF adding 233,000 ounces. Meanwhile, weak U.S. jobs data and a disappointing manufacturing report have shifted investor focus to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls for further insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

Gold Hits Another Record

Gold rose to $3,164 per ounce, a new record high as risk aversion increased following President Trump's tariff announcement. Trump outlined a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries, with higher rates for nations with trade surpluses, including China (34%), the EU (20%), and Japan (24%), and a 25% tariff on foreign-made automobiles. He presented a chart comparing the tariffs these countries impose on U.S. imports, with reciprocal tariffs set to take effect. Trump claimed the measures would boost domestic manufacturing and reduce trade deficits. Also, gold was supported by expectations of rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, with China’s ETF adding 233,000 ounces. Weak U.S. jobs data and a disappointing manufacturing report have shifted investor focus to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls for further insight into the Fed's policy outlook.

Gold Holds Gains After Trump Imposes Slew of Tariffs

Gold held earlier gains trading above $3,130 per ounce on Wednesday, edging closer to record highs, as risk aversion increased following President Trump's tariff announcement. Trump outlined a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries, with higher rates for nations with trade surpluses, including China (34%), the EU (20%), and Japan (24%), and a 25% tariff on foreign-made automobiles. He presented a chart comparing the tariffs these countries impose on U.S. imports, with reciprocal tariffs set to take effect. Trump claimed the measures would boost domestic manufacturing and reduce trade deficits. Meanwhile, gold was supported by expectations of rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, with China’s ETF adding 233,000 ounces. Weak U.S. jobs data and a disappointing manufacturing report have shifted investor focus to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls for further insight into the Fed's policy outlook.

Gold Rises Ahead of Fresh US Tariffs

Gold rose above $3,130 per ounce on Wednesday, climbing back toward record levels reached in the previous session, driven by risk aversion as markets braced for additional US tariffs that could escalate the global trade war. The White House did not disclose details on the tariffs' scope but said they would take effect immediately after being unveiled. President Trump also hinted the duties would impact many countries, raising concerns about broad economic fallout. Additionally, gold was supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs. The Chinese gold ETF added 233,000 ounces of notional bullion over the past week. Meanwhile, recent U.S. economic releases showed weak jobs data and a poor manufacturing report. Investors are now focused on Friday's nonfarm payroll report for more insights into the Fed's rate path.

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Gold Price History

21.05.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.8%

• Gold prices fell today despite recent upward momentum, as investors awaited further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
• The anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Fed was reinforced by soft US economic data, including weak retail sales and a slowdown in the labor market.
• Higher US Treasury yields and tepid gold demand in key markets like India and China also contributed to the downward pressure on Gold prices.
• The market movement suggests that investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and Fed officials' statements to assess the timing and extent of potential rate cuts, impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.

03.03.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 0.3%

• Gold prices dropped significantly by more than 3% from a record high above $3,160 per ounce due to the decision to exempt precious metals from tariffs, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
• Despite the decline, concerns about the tariffs' impact on global inflation and growth, coupled with expectations of rate cuts and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, helped mitigate the losses, showcasing the metal's resilience in volatile times.
• The market movement was also influenced by tariff announcements, outlining baseline tariffs and higher rates for countries like China, the EU, and Japan, as investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.
• Overall, the bearish movement in gold today can be attributed to a combination of factors, including trade tensions, economic uncertainties, and market reactions to geopolitical events, highlighting the metal's sensitivity to global developments.

18.08.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.3%

• Gold's bearish movement today can be attributed to profit-taking by investors after the recent surge in prices to record highs.
• The Federal Reserve's unexpected jumbo rate cut and updated economic forecasts may have led to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The ongoing market uncertainty, including political events and central bank decisions, could have also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices as investors reassess their portfolios.
• Despite today's bearish movement, the long-term bullish trend in gold, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar and lower bond yields, remains intact, indicating potential buying opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on future price increases.

06.10.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 1.2%

• Gold prices fell due to concerns over the US election outcome and the potential impact of a Trump presidency on inflation, leading investors to turn away from the precious metal.
• Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut to bolster the economy was not enough to offset the negative pressure on gold.
• Investor wariness towards safe-haven assets like gold was evident, given positive economic indicators and the resilience of the US economy, which diminished the immediate necessity for hedging against inflation risks.
• Today's dip in gold prices stemmed from a mix of factors, including election uncertainty, monetary policy projections, and changing perceptions of economic stability.

25.01.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 1.7%

• Gold prices fell below $2,950 per ounce despite holding near record highs, as concerns over President Trump's tariff policies continued to weigh on the market sentiment.
• The escalating trade tensions, coupled with fears of inflationary risks due to tariff announcements on various imports, led investors to reevaluate their positions in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Despite the bullish trend in recent weeks, the bearish movement today may indicate a temporary pullback as investors await further clarity on the Fed's monetary policy stance and the impact of geopolitical events on the global economy.
• The upcoming PCE report and market reactions to Trump's tariff measures will likely play a crucial role in shaping gold's future price movements, as investors navigate through volatile market conditions seeking safe-haven assets.

29.01.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 0.5%

• Gold prices rose as investors anticipated the release of the US PCE inflation report, which could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and consequently elevate gold's attractiveness as an inflation hedge.
• Factors such as lower yields and expectations of monetary stimulus also contributed to the positive trend in gold prices, especially amidst uncertainties regarding the timing and scale of rate adjustments by the Fed.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated safe-haven demand for gold as Houthi militants took credit for attacks on commercial ships, bolstering the metal's upward movement.
• Despite some periods of subdued trading, overall market sentiment regarding gold remained optimistic, steered by a mix of economic reports, central bank communications, and global uncertainties that collectively influenced today's bullish market performance.

01.02.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 0.8%

• Gold surged to a 4-week high of $2051.00 USD/t.oz, benefiting from the latest US inflation data that reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• The solidification of investors' beliefs in the Fed's accommodative stance, particularly after the PCE data release, bolstered Gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainties.
• With markets pricing in a high probability of a Fed rate cut in June and no hikes expected in the near term, the outlook for Gold remains positive as investors seek refuge in the precious metal.
• Lower yields and the prospect of monetary easing further supported Gold's upward trajectory, making it an attractive asset in the current economic landscape.

20.02.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 1.1%

• Gold prices surged as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations of interest rates remaining unchanged leading to increased confidence in the precious metal.
• Strong US inflation data and the anticipation of monetary easing in the future contributed to the bullish movement in gold prices.
• The Bank of Japan's decision to end its negative rate policy and the Reserve Bank of Australia's steady rates also played a role in boosting gold prices as investors sought safe haven assets amidst global economic uncertainties.
• Overall, the bullish movement in gold can be attributed to a combination of factors including central bank policies, economic data releases, and geopolitical tensions, all of which favored the appeal of the precious metal as a store of value.

13.01.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.4%

• The downward movement in the gold market today can be attributed to the following factors:
• 1. US Inflation Test: Concerns arose among investors ahead of a significant US inflation reading that may affect interest rate expectations. Positive US jobs data and statements from Federal Reserve officials raised fears of potential rate cut delays, leading to a decline in gold prices.
• 2. Strong Dollar and Treasury Yields: Gold faced pressure from a strong dollar and increasing Treasury yields, reducing its appeal as an alternative investment. Positive US jobs data and comments from Fed officials dampened expectations of rate cuts, further impacting gold sentiment.
• 3. Geopolitical Developments: Investors closely monitored geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly tensions between Israel and Hamas. While gold typically benefits from safe-haven demand, these factors failed to uplift the metal amidst other bearish influences.
• 4. Reassessing Monetary Policy Prospects: Economic data and remarks from central bankers, including officials from the European Central Bank (ECB), prompted investors to reevaluate their expectations for monetary policy. A gradual decrease in price pressures and cautious statements from Fed officials diminished expectations of rate cuts, thus affecting gold prices.
• Overall, the downward movement in the gold market today can be attributed to concerns about interest rates, a strong dollar, geopolitical tensions, and the reassessment of monetary policy prospects.

02.07.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 1.1%

• Gold prices dropped significantly today, despite recent record highs, as investors may have taken profits following the surge in prices.
• The bearish movement could also be attributed to the easing of tensions in the Middle East, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut may have influenced the market sentiment, leading to profit-taking in gold after the recent bullish rally.
• Overall, the combination of profit-taking, reduced geopolitical tensions, and market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy decisions likely contributed to the bearish movement in the gold market today.