Gold ($XAU) Commodity Forecast: Down 0.9% Today

What is Gold?

Gold, a precious metal often seen as a safe-haven asset, experienced a strong bearish movement today amidst a backdrop of heightened market volatility and uncertainty.

Why is Gold going down?

XAU commodity is down 0.9% on Sep 17, 2025 19:06

• Gold briefly broke a record high after the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision, but profit-taking and stronger-than-expected US economic data led to a pullback in prices.
• The market sentiment towards gold was influenced by the Fed's rate cut, signs of a cooling labor market, and expectations for further monetary policy easing.
• Despite hitting record highs recently, gold faced selling pressure as investors awaited the Fed's policy decision and economic indicators for further guidance on the metal's future trajectory.
• The surge in gold prices this year, driven by central bank purchases, safe-haven demand, and a weaker US dollar, highlights the metal's role as a key asset in times of economic uncertainty.

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Gold Briefly Breaks Record After Fed Decision

Gold retreated to around $3,680 per ounce on Wednesday, after briefly touching a new record high of $3,704 in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated rate cut. The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a range of 4%–4.25% in an 11–1 vote, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a larger half-point move, while other potential holdouts supported the majority. Policymakers flagged slowing job growth and elevated inflation, underscoring persistent risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. Meanwhile, gold has surged about 41% year-to-date, driven by robust central bank purchases, safe-haven flows, and a shift away from the weakening US dollar.

Gold Slips Ahead of FOMC Decision

Gold fell to around $3,680 per ounce on Wednesday, likely on profit-taking after the metal notched a fresh record in the previous session and tested the $3,700 milestone. Nevertheless, the broader upward bias remained intact as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with the central bank widely expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut—the first reduction of the year. Softer payroll data highlighted a weakening labor market, reinforcing expectations for multiple cuts, with markets now pricing in three reductions this year. Still, the economy shows pockets of resilience, as August retail sales rose 0.6%, while the core control group climbed 0.7%, marking a fourth straight month of growth. Investors will also watch the Fed’s new dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for further guidance. Meanwhile, gold has surged about 41% year-to-date, supported by strong central bank demand, safe-haven inflows, and a shift away from the weakening US dollar.

Gold Hits Record High Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold prices surged to a fresh record near $3,690 per ounce, as investors weighed stronger-than-expected US economic data and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. August retail sales rose more than anticipated, while import prices posted their largest increase in seven months, defying expectations for a slight decline. Despite the resilient data, signs of a cooling labor market have strengthened expectations that the Fed will deliver a 25bps rate cut—the first since December—and potentially signal an easing cycle extending into 2026. Markets will closely watch the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, including the dot plot, along with Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on the policy outlook. Meanwhile, gold has already rallied 40% this year, supported by trade and geopolitical tensions, robust central bank demand, and sustained ETF inflows.

Gold Steady Near Record High

Gold traded near a record high at around $3,680 per ounce on Tuesday ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting that starts today. Markets are all but certain the Fed will deliver a 25bps rate cut on Wednesday, the first since December, with growing expectations that the easing cycle could extend into next year. Attention will also be on the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, including the closely watched dot plot, as well as Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for signals on the future policy path. The Fed's meeting comes amid challenges, including a legal dispute over its leadership and US President Donald Trump's efforts to sway monetary policy. On the data front, reports on retail sales and industrial production, due later today, will be scrutinized for further insights into the strength of the economy.

Gold Hits All-time High

Gold increased to an all-time high of 3676.00 USD/t.oz. Over the past 4 weeks, Gold gained 10.26%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 42.21%.

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Gold Price History

21.05.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.8%

• Gold prices fell today despite recent upward momentum, as investors awaited further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
• The anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Fed was reinforced by soft US economic data, including weak retail sales and a slowdown in the labor market.
• Higher US Treasury yields and tepid gold demand in key markets like India and China also contributed to the downward pressure on Gold prices.
• The market movement suggests that investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and Fed officials' statements to assess the timing and extent of potential rate cuts, impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.

03.03.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 0.3%

• Gold prices dropped significantly by more than 3% from a record high above $3,160 per ounce due to the decision to exempt precious metals from tariffs, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
• Despite the decline, concerns about the tariffs' impact on global inflation and growth, coupled with expectations of rate cuts and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, helped mitigate the losses, showcasing the metal's resilience in volatile times.
• The market movement was also influenced by tariff announcements, outlining baseline tariffs and higher rates for countries like China, the EU, and Japan, as investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.
• Overall, the bearish movement in gold today can be attributed to a combination of factors, including trade tensions, economic uncertainties, and market reactions to geopolitical events, highlighting the metal's sensitivity to global developments.

01.07.2025 - XAU Commodity was up 1.3%

• Gold experienced a strong bullish movement today, reaching above $3,290 per ounce.
• The bullish trend can be attributed to the ongoing trade tensions between the US and multiple countries, leading to a weaker global economic outlook and increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• President Trump's introduction of higher tariffs on various nations, coupled with a stronger US dollar, contributed to the positive sentiment towards gold as investors sought to hedge against market volatility.
• Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the potential impact of tariffs on inflation further boosted the appeal of gold as a store of value in turbulent times.

23.03.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gold prices retreated from record highs as optimism surrounding US-China trade tensions and reduced concerns about Federal Reserve independence weakened the metal's safe-haven appeal.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments on a potential de-escalation in the trade conflict with China and President Trump's backing away from threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell contributed to the decline in gold prices.
• The improved overall sentiment and the slight pullback in assets benefiting from safety demand led to a decrease in gold prices, despite the metal still being up roughly 30% year-to-date.
• President Trump's remarks on Fed Chair Powell, ongoing global trade tensions, and fears of political interference in monetary policy have added to the uncertainty, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.

18.08.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.3%

• Gold's bearish movement today can be attributed to profit-taking by investors after the recent surge in prices to record highs.
• The Federal Reserve's unexpected jumbo rate cut and updated economic forecasts may have led to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The ongoing market uncertainty, including political events and central bank decisions, could have also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices as investors reassess their portfolios.
• Despite today's bearish movement, the long-term bullish trend in gold, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar and lower bond yields, remains intact, indicating potential buying opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on future price increases.

06.10.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 1.2%

• Gold prices fell due to concerns over the US election outcome and the potential impact of a Trump presidency on inflation, leading investors to turn away from the precious metal.
• Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut to bolster the economy was not enough to offset the negative pressure on gold.
• Investor wariness towards safe-haven assets like gold was evident, given positive economic indicators and the resilience of the US economy, which diminished the immediate necessity for hedging against inflation risks.
• Today's dip in gold prices stemmed from a mix of factors, including election uncertainty, monetary policy projections, and changing perceptions of economic stability.

25.01.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 1.7%

• Gold prices fell below $2,950 per ounce despite holding near record highs, as concerns over President Trump's tariff policies continued to weigh on the market sentiment.
• The escalating trade tensions, coupled with fears of inflationary risks due to tariff announcements on various imports, led investors to reevaluate their positions in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Despite the bullish trend in recent weeks, the bearish movement today may indicate a temporary pullback as investors await further clarity on the Fed's monetary policy stance and the impact of geopolitical events on the global economy.
• The upcoming PCE report and market reactions to Trump's tariff measures will likely play a crucial role in shaping gold's future price movements, as investors navigate through volatile market conditions seeking safe-haven assets.

17.08.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 0.9%

• Gold briefly broke a record high after the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision, but profit-taking and stronger-than-expected US economic data led to a pullback in prices.
• The market sentiment towards gold was influenced by the Fed's rate cut, signs of a cooling labor market, and expectations for further monetary policy easing.
• Despite hitting record highs recently, gold faced selling pressure as investors awaited the Fed's policy decision and economic indicators for further guidance on the metal's future trajectory.
• The surge in gold prices this year, driven by central bank purchases, safe-haven demand, and a weaker US dollar, highlights the metal's role as a key asset in times of economic uncertainty.

16.06.2025 - XAU Commodity was up 1.0%

• Gold prices edged higher to around $3,330 per ounce as investors assessed a pick-up in US inflation and ongoing trade developments, including tariff announcements on various countries.
• The uncertainty surrounding US economic policy and trade tensions continued to support gold prices, with central banks increasing their gold reserves amid the volatility in global markets.
• Tariff measures, such as the 30% duty on imports from the EU and Mexico, along with calls for rate cuts, added to the market volatility and boosted demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The World Gold Council reported net central bank gold purchases, further highlighting the ongoing interest in gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

20.02.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 1.1%

• Gold prices surged as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations of interest rates remaining unchanged leading to increased confidence in the precious metal.
• Strong US inflation data and the anticipation of monetary easing in the future contributed to the bullish movement in gold prices.
• The Bank of Japan's decision to end its negative rate policy and the Reserve Bank of Australia's steady rates also played a role in boosting gold prices as investors sought safe haven assets amidst global economic uncertainties.
• Overall, the bullish movement in gold can be attributed to a combination of factors including central bank policies, economic data releases, and geopolitical tensions, all of which favored the appeal of the precious metal as a store of value.

02.07.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 1.1%

• Gold prices dropped significantly today, despite recent record highs, as investors may have taken profits following the surge in prices.
• The bearish movement could also be attributed to the easing of tensions in the Middle East, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut may have influenced the market sentiment, leading to profit-taking in gold after the recent bullish rally.
• Overall, the combination of profit-taking, reduced geopolitical tensions, and market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy decisions likely contributed to the bearish movement in the gold market today.

22.07.2025 - XAU Commodity was up 0.4%

• Gold prices surged significantly today, hitting approximately $3,330 per ounce.
• This sudden surge is linked to market speculations about a possible rate reduction by the Federal Reserve in September, with traders currently factoring in a high likelihood of a quarter-point reduction.
• Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, also drove investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold.
• Investors are eagerly anticipating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for additional insights into the central bank's monetary policy direction, which could continue to impact gold prices in the short term.