Gold ($XAU) Commodity Forecast: Down 1.7% Today

What is Gold?

Gold, a precious metal known for its safe-haven appeal, experienced a strong bearish movement today amidst ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainties.

Why is Gold going down?

XAU commodity is down 1.7% on Feb 25, 2025 16:10

• Gold prices fell below $2,950 per ounce despite holding near record highs, as concerns over President Trump's tariff policies continued to weigh on the market sentiment.
• The escalating trade tensions, coupled with fears of inflationary risks due to tariff announcements on various imports, led investors to reevaluate their positions in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Despite the bullish trend in recent weeks, the bearish movement today may indicate a temporary pullback as investors await further clarity on the Fed's monetary policy stance and the impact of geopolitical events on the global economy.
• The upcoming PCE report and market reactions to Trump's tariff measures will likely play a crucial role in shaping gold's future price movements, as investors navigate through volatile market conditions seeking safe-haven assets.

XAU Price Chart

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Gold Holds Near Record High

Gold fell below $2,950 per ounce on Tuesday but remained near an all-time high, buoyed by safe-have flows due to concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Trump on Monday said that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports would proceed as planned, prompting markets to price in inflationary risks that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Also supporting the precious metal, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, reported its holdings rose to 904.38 tonnes on Friday, the highest since August 2023. Meanwhile, investors will shift focus towards Friday’s PCE report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. While the data is expected to show the slowest price growth since June, persistent inflationary pressures could keep the Fed cautious on rate cuts.

Gold Hovers at Record Levels

Gold held near $2,940 per ounce, close to record highs, as safe-haven demand rose amid concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans. Trump's latest measures expanded duties to include lumber and forest products, adding to previously announced tariffs on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, heightening fears of inflation and escalating trade tensions. Investor appetite is also reflected in rising holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, which reached 904.38 tonnes, the highest since August 2023. Meanwhile, attention is turning to Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. While the data is expected to show the slowest price growth since June, persistent inflationary pressures may keep the Fed cautious about cutting rates. Most economists now anticipate the Fed will wait until next quarter to lower rates, delaying expectations for a March cut.

Gold Hovers Near Record High

Gold fell below $2,930 per ounce on Monday but remained close to all-time highs, supported by strong safe-haven demand. The precious metal continued to find support amid growing concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs plans, which could escalate global trade tensions. On the economic front, reports on Friday showed US business activity slowed and consumer confidence waned, further boosting gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Investor focus will be on the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, due on Friday, which could offer more clues about the central bank’s interest rate trajectory. Elsewhere, physical gold demand in China and India remained weak, as record-high prices deterred buyers.

Gold Poised for 8th Weekly Advance

Gold held close to $2,940 per ounce on Friday, near its record high of $2,950 from the previous session, and was set for an eighth straight weekly gain, driven by its safety appeal amid rising global uncertainties. Earlier in the week, President Donald Trump announced plans of additional tariffs on lumber, cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, following existing tariffs of 10% on Chinese imports and 25% on steel and aluminum, further escalating global trade tensions. Adding to geopolitical risks, reports suggested Trump might withdraw US support for Ukraine during negotiations with Russia, potentially sidelining Kyiv and its European allies. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed speculation about revaluing government bullion holdings. Elsewhere, Swiss customs data showed that gold exports from Switzerland rose year-on-year in January, with shipments to the US reaching their highest level in at least 13 years.

Gold Surges to Fresh Record

Gold surged above $2,950 per ounce on Thursday, reaching a new record high as sustained safe-haven demand grew amid global uncertainties. Since taking office, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. He recently announced plans for additional tariffs on lumber, cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, further escalating global trade tensions. Meanwhile, the latest FOMC minutes highlighted policymakers' concerns that trade policy shifts, including higher tariffs, could intensify inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations of an extended pause on rate cuts. While gold is a traditional hedge against inflation, higher interest rates can reduce its appeal as a non-yielding asset. Adding to geopolitical risks, Trump referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a “dictator” and urged him to act swiftly to secure peace, warning of potential risks to his country.

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Gold Price History

21.05.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.8%

• Gold prices fell today despite recent upward momentum, as investors awaited further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
• The anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Fed was reinforced by soft US economic data, including weak retail sales and a slowdown in the labor market.
• Higher US Treasury yields and tepid gold demand in key markets like India and China also contributed to the downward pressure on Gold prices.
• The market movement suggests that investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and Fed officials' statements to assess the timing and extent of potential rate cuts, impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.

18.08.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.3%

• Gold's bearish movement today can be attributed to profit-taking by investors after the recent surge in prices to record highs.
• The Federal Reserve's unexpected jumbo rate cut and updated economic forecasts may have led to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The ongoing market uncertainty, including political events and central bank decisions, could have also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices as investors reassess their portfolios.
• Despite today's bearish movement, the long-term bullish trend in gold, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar and lower bond yields, remains intact, indicating potential buying opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on future price increases.

06.10.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 1.2%

• Gold prices fell due to concerns over the US election outcome and the potential impact of a Trump presidency on inflation, leading investors to turn away from the precious metal.
• Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut to bolster the economy was not enough to offset the negative pressure on gold.
• Investor wariness towards safe-haven assets like gold was evident, given positive economic indicators and the resilience of the US economy, which diminished the immediate necessity for hedging against inflation risks.
• Today's dip in gold prices stemmed from a mix of factors, including election uncertainty, monetary policy projections, and changing perceptions of economic stability.

25.01.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 1.7%

• Gold prices fell below $2,950 per ounce despite holding near record highs, as concerns over President Trump's tariff policies continued to weigh on the market sentiment.
• The escalating trade tensions, coupled with fears of inflationary risks due to tariff announcements on various imports, led investors to reevaluate their positions in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Despite the bullish trend in recent weeks, the bearish movement today may indicate a temporary pullback as investors await further clarity on the Fed's monetary policy stance and the impact of geopolitical events on the global economy.
• The upcoming PCE report and market reactions to Trump's tariff measures will likely play a crucial role in shaping gold's future price movements, as investors navigate through volatile market conditions seeking safe-haven assets.

29.01.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 0.5%

• Gold prices rose as investors anticipated the release of the US PCE inflation report, which could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and consequently elevate gold's attractiveness as an inflation hedge.
• Factors such as lower yields and expectations of monetary stimulus also contributed to the positive trend in gold prices, especially amidst uncertainties regarding the timing and scale of rate adjustments by the Fed.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated safe-haven demand for gold as Houthi militants took credit for attacks on commercial ships, bolstering the metal's upward movement.
• Despite some periods of subdued trading, overall market sentiment regarding gold remained optimistic, steered by a mix of economic reports, central bank communications, and global uncertainties that collectively influenced today's bullish market performance.

01.02.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 0.8%

• Gold surged to a 4-week high of $2051.00 USD/t.oz, benefiting from the latest US inflation data that reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• The solidification of investors' beliefs in the Fed's accommodative stance, particularly after the PCE data release, bolstered Gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainties.
• With markets pricing in a high probability of a Fed rate cut in June and no hikes expected in the near term, the outlook for Gold remains positive as investors seek refuge in the precious metal.
• Lower yields and the prospect of monetary easing further supported Gold's upward trajectory, making it an attractive asset in the current economic landscape.

20.02.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 1.1%

• Gold prices surged as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations of interest rates remaining unchanged leading to increased confidence in the precious metal.
• Strong US inflation data and the anticipation of monetary easing in the future contributed to the bullish movement in gold prices.
• The Bank of Japan's decision to end its negative rate policy and the Reserve Bank of Australia's steady rates also played a role in boosting gold prices as investors sought safe haven assets amidst global economic uncertainties.
• Overall, the bullish movement in gold can be attributed to a combination of factors including central bank policies, economic data releases, and geopolitical tensions, all of which favored the appeal of the precious metal as a store of value.

13.01.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.4%

• The downward movement in the gold market today can be attributed to the following factors:
• 1. US Inflation Test: Concerns arose among investors ahead of a significant US inflation reading that may affect interest rate expectations. Positive US jobs data and statements from Federal Reserve officials raised fears of potential rate cut delays, leading to a decline in gold prices.
• 2. Strong Dollar and Treasury Yields: Gold faced pressure from a strong dollar and increasing Treasury yields, reducing its appeal as an alternative investment. Positive US jobs data and comments from Fed officials dampened expectations of rate cuts, further impacting gold sentiment.
• 3. Geopolitical Developments: Investors closely monitored geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly tensions between Israel and Hamas. While gold typically benefits from safe-haven demand, these factors failed to uplift the metal amidst other bearish influences.
• 4. Reassessing Monetary Policy Prospects: Economic data and remarks from central bankers, including officials from the European Central Bank (ECB), prompted investors to reevaluate their expectations for monetary policy. A gradual decrease in price pressures and cautious statements from Fed officials diminished expectations of rate cuts, thus affecting gold prices.
• Overall, the downward movement in the gold market today can be attributed to concerns about interest rates, a strong dollar, geopolitical tensions, and the reassessment of monetary policy prospects.

02.07.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 1.1%

• Gold prices dropped significantly today, despite recent record highs, as investors may have taken profits following the surge in prices.
• The bearish movement could also be attributed to the easing of tensions in the Middle East, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut may have influenced the market sentiment, leading to profit-taking in gold after the recent bullish rally.
• Overall, the combination of profit-taking, reduced geopolitical tensions, and market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy decisions likely contributed to the bearish movement in the gold market today.