Prev Arrow Commodities

Copper ($COPPER) Commodity Forecast: Down 2.2% Today

Morpher AI identified a bearish signal. The commodity price may continue to fall based on the momentum of the negative news.

What is Copper?

Copper, a vital industrial metal, faced significant downward pressure today in the midst of recent market fluctuations.

Why is Copper going down?

COPPER commodity is down 2.2% on Jul 5, 2024 11:47

  • Copper reached a 4-week peak earlier this week supported by optimism around potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts and fiscal stimuli in China, but it reversed its course to follow a bearish trajectory today.
  • The decline is likely linked to uncertain factors on the demand side, including contradictory information on Chinese manufacturing activities and forecasts of weakening demand in China for the latter part of the year.
  • Moreover, the consistent growth in copper supplies in warehouses monitored by LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange may have contributed to price declines, hinting at potential concerns of oversupply in the market.
  • Despite recent positive movements, today's downturn underscores the persistent obstacles and unknowns in the global economic growth and trade disputes landscape, influencing the demand and supply dynamics in the copper market.

COPPER Price Chart

COPPER News

Copper Hits 4-Week High

Copper futures climbed to around $4.60 per ounce on Friday, hitting a four-week high as rising odds that the US Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates as early as September and hopes for more stimulus measures in top consumer China lifted sentiment. The metal is also on track to gain more than 5% this week for its best weekly performance since mid-May. Earlier this week, a surprise contraction in services activity and disappointing private employment numbers in the US supported the case for the Fed to start easing policy soon. Markets also look forward to a key political meeting in China later in July where top officials are expected to announce new measures to support the economy. Moreover, Shanghai Futures Exchange data showed that copper inventories in China have declined for the third straight week after recording sharp increases since the start of 2024. Meanwhile, copper inventories in LME-monitored warehouses rose to 186,450 tons, the highest since October 2023.

Copper Hits 4-week High

Copper increased to a 4-week high of 4.61 USD/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper lost 1.52%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 23.61%.

Copper Holds Gains on Fed Rate Cut Hopes

Copper futures held above $4.5 per ounce on Thursday after jumping more than 2% in the previous session, hovering close to two-week highs as weak US economic data bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates as soon as September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said this week that recent data indicated a shift to a disinflationary trend, although they need more confidence on the inflation outlook before easing policy. Lower US rates could boost global economic growth and overall demand, supporting commodity prices. Shanghai Futures Exchange data also showed that copper inventories in China have declined for the third straight week after recording sharp increases since the start of 2024. Meanwhile, copper inventories in LME-monitored warehouses rose to 186,450 tons, the highest since October 2023.

Copper Extends Gains on Dovish Fed Remarks

Copper futures climbed above $4.45 per ounce on Wednesday, rising for the fourth straight session as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent data indicated a shift to a disinflationary path, although they need more confidence on the inflation outlook before cutting interest rates. Lower US rates could boost global economic growth and overall demand, supporting commodity prices. Shanghai Futures Exchange data also showed that copper inventories in China have declined for the third straight week after recording sharp increases since the start of 2024. Meanwhile, demand for the metal in top consumer China is expected to decline in the second half of this year due to a high-base effect.

Copper Hovers Near 2-½-Month Low

Copper futures steadied around $4.4 per ounce on Tuesday but remained close to its lowest levels since mid-April amid robust inventories and demand-side uncertainties. LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange data pointed to rising copper inventories in recent weeks, while copper production in Chile is expected to increase amid expansions at the Quedra Blanca and Escondida mines. Meanwhile, the LME Gwangyang warehouse in South Korea saw 8,000 tons of fresh cancellations, signaling a potential decline in inventories. On the demand side, conflicting reports on Chinese manufacturing activity clouded the outlook for the world’s top copper consumer. Still, analysts are suggesting that physical demand in the country could pick up as prices drop.

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Copper Price History

22.04.2024 - COPPER Commodity was down 5.9%

  • The bearish movement in copper today can be attributed to the easing from its record high of $5.15 per pound.
  • Poor demand in the near term, particularly from China, the world's top copper consumer, despite tight ore supply and low treatment volumes in the refining industry, led to an increase in inventories and a sharp discount in prices.
  • Speculative bets for copper remained high, driven by its role in electrification and infrastructure, but concerns about looming shortages and the surplus expected in the market for 2024 and 2025 weighed on prices.
  • The high costs of committing to new projects and the focus on M&A activity by giant miners instead of new developments also contributed to the bearish movement in copper prices today.

15.04.2024 - COPPER Commodity was up 5.0%

  • Copper reached an all-time high of $5.03 USD/Lbs, marking a substantial increase in price.
  • The surge in Copper prices can be attributed to strong demand and tight supply dynamics, with concerns of shortages looming in the market.
  • Increased imports of copper ore by China despite soaring prices underpin the robust demand from manufacturers, further fueling the bullish trend in Copper prices.
  • The high costs associated with developing new copper mines have led major mining companies to focus on M&A activities, signaling a shift in the industry's strategic direction towards consolidation rather than new projects.

14.04.2024 - COPPER Commodity was up 5.2%

  • Copper futures soared to over $4.8 per pound, the highest since February 2022, driven by strong demand and tight supply concerns.
  • Increased imports of copper ore by China despite rising prices supported manufacturers' demand, while smelters in China faced margin pressures due to low material availability.
  • Giant miners turned to M&A activities instead of new projects due to high costs, exemplified by BHP's recent attempt to acquire Anglo American.
  • The bullish movement in copper was further fueled by the metal's essential role in electrification, AI, and automation infrastructure, underpinning long-term demand forecasts.

22.04.2024 - COPPER Commodity was down 5.0%

  • Today's bearish movement in copper is due to concerns over low near-term demand in China, the largest consumer of copper globally, despite tight ore supply and low treatment volumes in the refining industry.
  • Speculative bets for copper, fueled by its importance in electrification and infrastructure projects, have maintained high prices year-to-date, but a lack of immediate physical demand is putting pressure on prices.
  • The high costs associated with initiating new mining projects have prompted major miners to prioritize M&A activities over new developments, affecting the future supply forecast for copper.
  • The market's current shift may also indicate a correction from recent record highs, as investors reconsider the balance between speculative demand and actual consumption in the copper market.

15.04.2024 - COPPER Commodity was up 5.1%

  • Copper prices surged to over a 2-year high due to strong demand and tight supply concerns, with futures exceeding $4.71 per pound.
  • Increased copper ore imports from China, despite rising prices, highlight robust demand from manufacturers. Low availability of material is impeding margins for smelters in China, potentially leading to a 10% output cut this year.
  • The market responded positively to the optimistic long-term demand outlook for copper, fueled by its crucial role in global electrification, artificial intelligence, and automation infrastructure.
  • Speculation about quantitative easing in China, fueled by concerns about the country's property crisis, further boosted copper prices. Markets are anticipating rate cuts and potential supply deficits against optimistic demand projections.

08.02.2024 - COPPER Commodity was down 0.8%

  • Copper futures dipped to $3.84 per pound due to the lack of significant stimulus from China, disappointing investors who were hoping for more extensive measures to boost demand and stabilize growth.
  • The announcement of a 5% growth target for 2024 by China at a recent parliament meeting raised concerns about the country's economic outlook, especially as the manufacturing sector witnessed its fifth consecutive month of contraction in February.
  • The increase in copper inventories in SHFE warehouses to 214,487 tons, the highest level in nearly a year, further signaled weak demand for the metal, contributing to the bearish movement in the market.
  • Investors are now looking towards the upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) meeting from March 5-11, considering the possibility of additional stimulus measures that could potentially impact copper prices in the near future.

05.06.2024 - COPPER Commodity was down 2.2%

  • Copper reached a 4-week peak earlier this week supported by optimism around potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts and fiscal stimuli in China, but it reversed its course to follow a bearish trajectory today.
  • The decline is likely linked to uncertain factors on the demand side, including contradictory information on Chinese manufacturing activities and forecasts of weakening demand in China for the latter part of the year.
  • Moreover, the consistent growth in copper supplies in warehouses monitored by LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange may have contributed to price declines, hinting at potential concerns of oversupply in the market.
  • Despite recent positive movements, today's downturn underscores the persistent obstacles and unknowns in the global economic growth and trade disputes landscape, influencing the demand and supply dynamics in the copper market.
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Disclaimer
Morpher is not liable for the content of the AI investment insights. Like most GPT-powered tools, these summaries may contain AI hallucinations and inaccurate information. Morpher is not presenting you with any investment advice. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. These summaries do not constitute investment advice.