Copper ($COPPER) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.0% Today

What is Copper?

Copper, a vital industrial metal, experienced a strong bullish movement today amidst concerns of low supply and supportive market conditions.

Why is Copper going up?

COPPER commodity is up 5.0% on Nov 28, 2025 17:25

• Copper futures surged to a 4-month high above $5.1 per pound due to multiple mine disruptions from major producers, including a fatal incident at a mine in Indonesia, leading to supply constraints.
• Chilean producer Codelco offering record-high prices to Chinese buyers signaled a potential shift towards prioritizing US consumers, reinforcing the bullish outlook for copper in the long term.
• Expectations of the US Federal Reserve lowering borrowing costs again this year added to the positive sentiment, supporting domestic manufacturers and dollar-priced commodities, including copper.
• The upcoming industry meeting in China, where miners are expected to push for tougher supply terms for 2026, also contributed to the bullish momentum in copper prices.

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Copper Rises to 4-Month High

Copper futures in the US were above the $5.1 per pound mark, testing their highest level in four months amid mounting concerns of low supply. A series of mine disruptions from major producers drove sellers to raise their selling prices though the fourth quarter. These include a fatal incident at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which halted activity at the source responsible for over 3% of global copper supply, in addition to signals that output will slow its recovery in Chile and Peru due to recurring protests. Consequently, Chilean state-miner Codelco offered offered record-high prices to Chinese buyers, signaling a potential shift to prioritize US consumers. Copper futures and base metals also gained support from expectations that the US Federal Reserve is likely to lower borrowing costs again this year, supporting the outlook for domestic manufacturers and lowering dollar-priced commodities.

Copper Hits 4-week High

Copper increased to 5.15 USD/Lbs, the highest since October 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper lost 0.39%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 26.22%.

Copper Firms on Codelco Premium Push

Copper futures climbed toward $5.1 per pound, reaching a four-week high after Chilean producer Codelco offered record-high prices to Chinese buyers, signaling a potential shift to prioritize US consumers. Codelco’s offers came at a $350 per ton premium over London Metal Exchange prices, up from $89 per ton agreed in last year’s negotiations. The move reinforces the market’s long-term bullish outlook for copper, as a fragile supply-demand balance is expected to tip into deeper deficits over the coming years. Copper also gained support from expectations that the US Federal Reserve will pursue a more aggressive easing path. Markets now price in roughly an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, up sharply from about 30% a week ago, with three additional cuts anticipated by the end of 2026.

Copper Rises Ahead of Industry Meeting in China

Copper futures climbed above $5 per pound on Tuesday, reaching a near two-week high as investors positioned ahead of a key industry gathering in Shanghai this week, where miners are expected to push for tougher supply terms for 2026. The global copper-processing sector has faced record low annual treatment and refining charges over the past year as metal-processing capacity in China outpaced mined production. In Chile, state-owned Codelco proposed a record $330 per ton premium for metal sold to South Korea, above the $325 per ton offered to European clients. Copper also benefited from renewed optimism that the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in December, following dovish signals from policymakers. Markets now price in an 81% chance of a 25 basis point reduction next month, up sharply from 42.4% a week ago.

Copper Stabilizes on Dovish Fed Bets

Copper steadied around $5 per pound on Monday, holding gains from the previous session as dovish comments from a senior US Federal Reserve official boosted expectations for a rate cut next month. Markets now price in about a 69% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, up from 44% a week earlier. Prices were also supported by signs of tightening supply, with Chile’s state-owned Codelco proposing a record $330 per ton premium for metal sold to South Korea, above the $325 per ton offered to European clients. Additionally, Freeport McMoRan recently said it plans to resume production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine by July 2026 after operations were halted in September when wet mud flooded a pit, resulting in seven fatalities. Meanwhile, copper cathode imports in top consumer China fell 22.1% in October from a year earlier and 15.7% month on month.

Trending Today

Copper Price History

28.10.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 5.0%

• Copper futures surged to a 4-month high above $5.1 per pound due to multiple mine disruptions from major producers, including a fatal incident at a mine in Indonesia, leading to supply constraints.
• Chilean producer Codelco offering record-high prices to Chinese buyers signaled a potential shift towards prioritizing US consumers, reinforcing the bullish outlook for copper in the long term.
• Expectations of the US Federal Reserve lowering borrowing costs again this year added to the positive sentiment, supporting domestic manufacturers and dollar-priced commodities, including copper.
• The upcoming industry meeting in China, where miners are expected to push for tougher supply terms for 2026, also contributed to the bullish momentum in copper prices.

28.10.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 4.5%

• Copper futures saw a notable increase, reaching a four-week peak following a strategic move by Chilean company Codelco to propose premium prices for Chinese purchasers, indicating a potential shift towards favoring US buyers. This development, combined with expectations of a more aggressive approach to monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, contributed to the bullish atmosphere in the copper market.
• Anticipation surrounding an upcoming significant industry gathering in China, where discussions on stricter supply agreements for 2026 are anticipated, prompted investors to take strategic positions. The outlook of tightening supply conditions, along with renewed positivity regarding possible interest rate adjustments, further boosted copper prices.
• Support for copper prices was reinforced by cautious statements from a senior US Federal Reserve official, as well as indications of supply constraints such as Codelco's proposal of a record premium for metal destined for South Korea. Favorable market dynamics were also influenced by the restart of operations at Indonesia's Grasberg mine and a decrease in copper cathode imports in China.

25.10.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 0.3%

• Copper prices fell sharply as signs of soft demand in China, particularly in the property sector and power grid spending, weighed on the market sentiment.
• Expectations that the US Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates in December also contributed to the bearish trend, with recent signals of cautious policy adjustments amid economic uncertainty.
• The ongoing supply concerns supported copper prices previously, but the market sentiment turned bearish today due to the combination of weak demand indicators and Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts.
• Despite previous support from tightening supply and supply disruptions such as the incidents at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the copper mine collapse in Congo, the market sentiment shifted towards a bearish outlook today.

24.08.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 1.4%

• Copper prices surged today as supply concerns loomed over the market, with challenges faced by a major copper mining company in Chile following a tunnel collapse.
• Despite setbacks at the Chilean company and disruptions at another mining company, recent production data indicated resilience in the industry, with increased output reported by the companies.
• Expectations of tighter supply in the near future supported copper futures, demonstrating the market's sensitivity to supply disruptions and production challenges.
• The uptrend in copper prices today reflects investors' attention to supply dynamics and their potential impact on future prices, emphasizing the need to monitor production updates and supply chain risks in the copper market.

31.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 21.9%

• Copper futures plunged due to a recent decision to exclude refined copper from new tariffs applied by a prominent figure, leading to a significant decline in prices.
• Traders reacted by accelerating shipments to the US in anticipation of broader tariffs, resulting in a shift in copper flows and reduced demand.
• The exclusion of raw forms of copper like ore and concentrates from tariffs also influenced the market reaction, impacting sentiment adversely.
• Following this development, Copper hit an 8-week low, with prices dropping substantially by 20%, underlining the notable effect of the tariff exemption on the commodity's value.

30.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 11.5%

• Copper prices experienced a bearish movement as concerns grew over the impending 50% US tariff on copper imports, set to begin on August 1.
• The uncertainty surrounding which copper products will be affected and the rush of vessels to reach US ports before the tariff deadline contributed to the downward pressure on copper prices.
• Despite the temporary gains driven by risk appetite and progress in US trade negotiations with major partners, the looming tariff threat overshadowed the market sentiment, leading to the bearish movement in copper prices.
• The market will likely continue to closely monitor developments in US trade policies and global trade flows to gauge the future direction of copper prices.

30.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 18.5%

• The bearish movement in Copper prices can be attributed to a decision to exclude refined copper from an upcoming tariff package, causing a significant drop in futures prices.
• The uncertainty surrounding the specific copper products to be affected by the tariffs has led to market volatility and a rush to ship copper to the US before the deadline.
• An announcement about seeking a tariff exemption for copper imports provided some relief to the market, leading to a temporary rebound in prices, but concerns over a potential decline in US demand post-tariffs remain.
• The ongoing US-China trade tensions and the lack of clarity on trade agreements have added to market caution and contributed to the bearish sentiment in Copper prices.

10.09.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 5.9%

• Today's decline in copper prices is linked to President Trump's considerations of imposing higher tariffs on Chinese imports, sparking fears of an escalation in the US-China trade conflict.
• Supply disruptions in major copper-producing nations such as Chile and Indonesia, stemming from accidents and operational difficulties, are contributing to the downward pressure on copper prices.
• Market participants engaging in profit-taking activities have been noted, potentially exacerbating the selling momentum in copper futures, despite ongoing supply constraints.
• The current bearish trend in copper prices reflects the intricate interplay of trade tensions, supply interruptions, and profit-taking behaviors, underscoring the commodity market's susceptibility to geopolitical and operational upheavals.

25.08.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 5.0%

• Today's rise in copper prices is mainly driven by concerns over supply disruptions at notable mines like Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia and Hudbay Minerals' Constancia mine in Peru.
• Freeport-McMoRan's enforcement of force majeure due to a tragic incident and subsequent production reduction has amplified the market's alertness to possible supply interruptions, pushing prices upwards.
• Challenges persist at Codelco's El Teniente operation in Chile and disruptions at Teck Resources, which have added pressure to the supply situation, sustaining copper prices at levels seen over the last two months.
• Despite obstacles faced, recent production statistics from key industry players like Codelco and BHP's Escondida mine suggest a level of resilience in dealing with operational issues, indicating a delicate equilibrium between supply constraints and demand dynamics in the copper market.

25.08.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 5.2%

• Today's positive trend in copper prices originated from supply worries within the market, notably stemming from disruptions at major mines:
• Freeport-McMoRan's imposition of force majeure on production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to an unfortunate incident highlighted the market's susceptibility to supply disruptions.
• Operations suspension at Hudbay Minerals' Constancia mine in Peru amid protests further exacerbated the supply limitations.
• These disruptions, particularly at Grasberg, a significant source of global copper supply, sparked concerns of a potential shortage, leading to price escalations.
• The market's response emphasizes the critical significance of monitoring geopolitical events and operational risks in key mining areas to assess potential implications on commodity prices.

31.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 21.8%

• The bearish movement in Copper today can be attributed to a decision that excluded refined copper from an upcoming tariff package, leading to a significant drop in futures prices.
• Traders rushing to allocate metal into a specific country before the tariff deadline resulted in a surge in copper prices earlier in the week, followed by a sharp decline as concerns over reduced demand post-tariffs intensified.
• An announcement made by a country seeking a tariff exemption for copper imports provided a temporary boost to prices, but uncertainty surrounding the impending tariffs and the lack of clarity on affected products continue to weigh on the market.
• The overall market sentiment remains cautious as traders navigate through trade negotiations, tariff deadlines, and global trade tensions, contributing to the heightened volatility in copper prices.

10.09.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 2.3%

• Despite recent supply disruptions in major copper-producing countries like Chile and Indonesia, copper prices experienced a bearish movement today, possibly due to profit-taking by investors.
• The ongoing supply concerns, including mine disruptions and reduced production forecasts by key players, have been supporting copper prices in recent days.
• The uncertainty surrounding the timeline for full production recovery at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the El Teniente site in Chile may have contributed to the market's bearish sentiment today.
• Broader market factors, such as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and their impact on industrial metal demand, could also be influencing the fluctuation in copper prices despite the supply-side disruptions.